The New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins will get a three-game series going this evening in the Bronx.
New York is back home after a successful western road trip, but I'm going to focus my Twins vs. Yankees predictions on why I'm going to fade Luis Gil on the hump today. Find out the reasoning and more in my MLB picks for this June 4 tilt ahead.
Twins vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Luis Gil Over 1.5 earned runs (-165 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Given the expectation and what we've seen from him in his two short stints in the majors before the season, it's tough to quantify what Luis Gil has done. A player who was supposed to be a bridge for the return of Gerrit Cole has emerged as a Cy Young contender. Over the last five games, he has earned runs and a .62 ERA.
Even though I have some confidence he'll have a strong season when it's all over, this current rate, for anyone, is simply unsustainable. He's due for an off-game with some negative regression, even if it's still a relatively strong start.
When building up the statistical profile of what teams could give Gil trouble, what is essential is patience at the plate. Gil's walk rate is in the Bottom 20% of baseball, and he's issued three free passes in four straight. His worst outings have also come against teams in the Top 10 in terms of walk rate.
Against the Brewers, who rank third in that category, he gave up five earned runs in his worst start of the season. In both outings against the Blue Jays (sixth), he's given up at least three earned runs.
While the season numbers don't show the Minnesota Twins walking a ton, the most recent metrics do. Over its last 10 games, Minnesota ranks eighth in walk rate, which goes up on the road. This is backed up more by deeper analytics like swing rate, which Minnesota has the eighth lowest in baseball. Those two teams we mentioned previously? They rank last in swing rate (Brewers) and fourth-to-last in swing rate (Blue Jays).
I priced this number at -172, and while we're drinking a good bit of juice here, this number still has value. The Twins fit the swing profile of teams that gave Gil the most trouble on the season, and they should be able to do enough to get over this number tonight.
Twins vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Luis Gil Over 1.5 earned runs
Gil Over 2.5 walks
I'm pairing our best bet with a similar theme of Gil struggling somewhat with his location.
Minnesota has rapidly improved its patience on the plate as the season has gone on and has been better at this aspect on the road. The Twins are averaging a full walk more on the road than home.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Yankees odds
Twins vs Yankees live odds
Twins vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-142) New York (+118)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +150, New York -178
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) Under 7.5 (-110)
Twins vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- Betting the Yankees and making money has continued to be the common refrain. They have the best record in baseball heading into today, and over the last 10 games, bettors are up just over four units, backing New York.
- There's no real edge from a side perspective between these two teams over the last 10 games. The Yankees have a slight advantage over the Twins in that span at 6-4.
- However, there has been a solid trend for the Under in the head-to-head meetings as it's hit at a 7-3 clip.
- The Over has taken some sharp action from its opening number of 7.5. According to our odds history page, it has moved to 8.0 or 8.5 at publication.
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Twins vs Yankees trend
The Twins have hit the moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games (+9.60 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Yankees
Twins vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Bailey Ober (5-3, 4.90 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (7-1, 1.99 ERA) |
Twins vs Yankees latest injuries
Twins vs Yankees weather
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