White Sox vs Angels Predictions, Picks, Odds: Giolito Struggles to Hold Back Halos

The Los Angeles Angels have taken the first two games of their current four-game set with the Chicago White Sox, which is impressive as they were coming back from the altitude of Colorado. Jaime Barria and the home side sit as -125 home favorites in the MLB odds as the starting pitching matchup might seem to favor the visitors, but Lucas Giolito is tough to trust as a short road dog. 

The Chicago starter gets a park downgrade tonight at Angel Stadium, and his control issues will drive up his pitch count vs. an underrated Halos’ offense that can still take pitches even without Mike Trout.

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for White Sox vs. Angels on Wednesday, June 28.

White Sox vs Angels odds

White Sox vs Angels predictions

THE BAT is projecting 16.2 outs from Chicago White Sox starter Lucas Giolito which is not crazy value on his Under 17.5 outs, but at +120, that’s certainly +EV.

There are plenty of things working against the inconsistent right-hander who has pitched well of late, but still elevates his pitch count with a lot of balls (2.93 BB/9) and a reliance on the strikeout. He can also give up the longball, with 14 allowed over 92-plus innings. That isn’t working in his favor at Angel Stadium, which has been a sneaky good hitter’s park and has nine mph winds blowing straight out tonight. 

Shohei Ohtani was a specimen last night with 10 punchouts and two home runs. He left with a trainer in the seventh inning but remained in as a hitter, which bodes well for his participation in today’s affair. 

Gio has gone Under this number in three of his last six starts, has a WHIP 0.50 points higher on the road, and might be overvalued altogether thanks to a matchup vs. a team starting their No. 6 pitcher. That could also work against Gio as the Angels could be making multiple pitching changes in the middle innings, which could freeze the Chicago starter and force the Sox to turn to the pen sooner than they'd like.

My best bet: Giolito Under 17.5 outs (+120)

White Sox vs Angels same-game parlay

Giolito Under 17.5 outs

Giolito Over 1.5 walks

Ohtani Over 0.5 RBI

+600 at bet365

The Over walks and Under outs should be more correlated, but the pair are giving +225 odds when the true odds are +243. Giolito has command issues and the Angels take a ton of pitches and see plenty of three-ball counts. I like the L.A. moneyline, but the price tag doesn't give me enough value in this SGP, so I'm pivoting to high +EV play from THE BAT in an Ohtani RBI.

Mickey Moniak has a .357 OBP and is hitting .300 over his last 15 games, while the AL MVP odds frontrunner is slashing a cool .404/.507/1.018 over his last 15 games for a 1.525 OPS. Shohei is hitting .304 vs. Giolito over his career (23 ABs) with three homes and four knocked in. He has an RBI in five straight games, and 14 over his last 12.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

White Sox vs Angels moneyline and Over/Under analysis

L.A. won the series opener as a -121 home favorite, and followed that up with a win last night as a -164 fave with Ohtani on the mound. Tonight’s matchup favors the White Sox on paper and is the reason the moneyline opened at -120, but bettors are starting to warm up to Jaime Barria and the Halos, which have moved to as short as -130 in some places. 

The Angels have added Mike Moustakas and his .799 OPS to the lineup, which is great timing as Mike Trout is out. Moniak went 0-for-5 yesterday but has been productive, hitting .312 with a 1.002 OPS on the year. Add in some veteran bats throughout this lineup including Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury, and Taylor Ward, and this is not an easy order to cruise through and one that might run up Giolito’s pitch count. L.A. is tied for sixth in the league in pitches per plate appearance at 3.95.

If L.A. shakes Gio early it will have a big edge, as the bullpen advantage is strongly in the home team’s favor. The Angels have a Top 5 bullpen ERA vs. Chicago’s Bottom 5 ERA. The strong Halos pen will also help mitigate the issues with Barria likely going fewer than 15 outs. 

This total is likely to hit 9 across the board, as some sharper books have hit that number as of 1 p.m. ET. It opened at 8.5.

The hitting conditions are prime, Giolito can give up his fair share of longballs, while the chances of a big inning from the Sox are higher than normal with them likely seeing four or more pitchers tonight. However, this is still a Chicago offense that ranks in the Bottom 5 in runs/9, AVG, and OPS.

I’d prefer the L.A. moneyline at -125 compared to the Over 8.5 at -125, but think there is some room for CLV in both those plays.   

Trend to know

The White Sox are 15-36 in the last 51 meetings in Los Angeles. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Angels

White Sox vs Angels game info

Starting pitchers

Lucas Giolito (5-5, 3.41 ERA): Giolito will be making his 17th start of the season tonight and comes in with a 99:29 K/BB ratio over 92-plus inning with 14 homers allowed. His 1.36 HR/9 is the 15th-worst mark among qualified pitchers, and he saw the Angels five starts ago, where he went 15 outs and gave up three runs over 98 pitches. The White Sox are 6-10 SU when he starts, and THE BAT is projecting 94 pitches, 16.2 outs, 5.87 strikeouts, and 3.11 earned runs. 

Jaime Barria (2-2, 2.14 ERA): Barria is projected to make his fifth start and 17th appearance tonight. The right-hander last pitched 10 days ago, where he went 42 pitches of shutout ball over three frames. As a starter, he carries a 2.79 ERA with a .222 batting average against and a 17:5 K/BB ratio over 19 innings. THE  BAT is projecting 77 pitches, 14.4 outs, 3.55 strikeouts, and 2.50 earned runs.

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