Yankees vs Angels Predictions, Picks, Odds: Severino No Match for Halos Hitters

The New York Yankees need reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge back in the worst way possible. The Yankees are coming off an embarrassing series loss to the Rockies where they had trouble producing runs against the likes of Auston Gomber and Chase Anderson.

Now, they’ll have to deal with the guy who will be winning this year’s AL MVP Award (unless he gets traded to the NL of course) when their West Coast road trip continues against the Los Angeles Angels.

The opener sees Luis Severino toe the rubber against Griffin Canning which means the Yankees are slight road dogs. Can New York pull off the upset, or will Los Angeles get the job done as a home favorite?

I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet plus a same-game parlay in my MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Angels below.

Yankees vs Angels odds

Yankees vs Angels predictions

Griffin Canning hasn’t been great this season, but to the New York Yankees, he might look like Cy Young. And he’s been worlds better than Luis Severino.

Severino has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season. Since rejoining the Yankees rotation at the end of May, Severino has made a habit of getting lit up. The right-hander is pitching to a 7.02 expected ERA while surrendering a .310 expected batting average and a .532 expected slugging percentage to opponents.

His last two starts leading into the All-Star break were particularly bad. Severino got tagged for 16 runs on 19 hits in just 6 2/3 innings against the Cardinals and Orioles.

And despite a handful of injuries, the Los Angeles Angels still have some pop in the lineup, starting of course with Shohei Ohtani, who leads MLB in home runs, slugging, and OPS.

Overall, the Angels are tied for eighth in batting average and rank fourth in OPS and wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season. Additionally, they came out of the break by scoring 26 runs despite losing the series to the Astros.

Now, the Over has cashed in five of Severino’s last seven starts, but with the way the Yankees lineup looks at the moment, it might be better to focus on the Angels here.

The Angels plate 5.1 runs per nine innings vs. right-handed pitching and they’ll have a decent shot to put up some crooked numbers against Severino tonight. And even the once-vaunted Yankees’ bullpen hasn’t been as great as we’ve been used to, ranking 12th in xFIP and 19th in strikeouts per nine innings.

Severino himself has allowed four runs or more in six of his seven starts, which have lasted an average of 4.57 innings. 

The Yankees are in a bad place and I like the Angels to go Over their team total of 4.5 in this matchup tonight.

My best bet: Angels team total Over 4.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Yankees vs Angels same-game parlay

Angels TT Over 4.5 (-115)

Luis Severino Over 5.5 hits allowed (-130)

Luis Severino Under 15.5 outs (-120)

Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (-115)

Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 RBI (+145)

+1,000 at bet365

Today’s same-game parlay will unsurprisingly be a fade of Severino and let’s throw in a little love for Ohtani at the same time. As always, we start off with our best bet which is Angels Over their team total of 4.5, a number they've gone Over in four straight games and in six of their last nine.

Next, let’s add Severino Over 5.5 hits allowed and Under 15.5 outs recorded. Like I said, he’s getting hit hard and often. He’s allowed six or more hits and pitched five or fewer innings in six of his last seven starts.

Then let’s close it out by adding Ohtani to go Over 1.5 total bases and Over 0.5 RBI. Obviously, Ohtani has been a stud. He’s hitting .301 with a 1.051 OPS this season and while he is just 1-4 in his career vs. Severino, that one hit was a dinger. These plays together bring you to a juicy +1,000 payout.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Yankees vs Angels moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Angels opened this matchup as -115 home favorites and have moved to the -130 range as of Monday afternoon.

Severino's pitching has of course been a huge reason why, but the Yankees lineup has also been a dumpster fire ever since Aaron Judge went down. The MVP has been out since June 4. New York ranks dead last in batting average, 28th in OPS, and 27th in wRC+ since then.

While Griffin Canning hasn’t been great, he hasn’t been terrible either. He owns a 4.30 expected ERA this season and that should be more than enough to handle a Yankees lineup we just saw struggle to handle the likes of Austin Gomber and Chase Anderson.

I would lean toward the Angels here as slight home favorites and would like them up to -145. 

Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 9 and hasn’t moved off that number so far. Even though the Angels should do some scoring tonight, it’s hard to have faith in the Yankees to do their part to send this one Over the number. I'm sticking with just the Angels team total.

Trend to know

The Angels have hit the Over on their team total in seven of their last nine games. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Angels

Yankees vs Angels game info

Starting pitchers

Luis Severino (1-4, 7.38 ERA): Severino didn't come off the injured list until the end of May, and maybe the Yankees are hoping that he hadn't come back so soon. The right-hander has a 9.48 ERA and surrendered 10 home runs in his last seven starts.

Griffin Canning (6-4, 4.62 ERA): Canning is coming off his worst start of the season where he allowed four runs on five hits in just 2 2/3 innings. He had a 3.00 ERA and limited opponents to a .190 batting average in his seven previous starts.

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