The Atlanta Braves set the series tone last night vs. the New York Yankees with an 11-3 win as a -180 home favorite. Now, they’ll send young right-hander Bryce Elder to the mound to take on Luis Severino, who is clinging to a rotation spot. The Braves sit as a -220 favorite with a total of 10.5 thanks to winds blowing straight out at Truist Park.
With Severino’s confidence hanging by a thread and coming off a meager 48-pitch performance, there is a good chance the New York starter has a shorter leash than usual if the Atlanta bats get to him early. That’s creating some value on the few pitcher prop markets that are being offered on Severino tonight.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Braves for Tuesday, August 15.
Yankees vs Braves odds
Yankees vs Braves predictions
Luis Severino was moved to the bullpen and tossed two innings in his last appearance five days ago, giving up four runs on five hits to the White Sox on 48 pitches. Now, he has to face the best offense on the road with prime hitting conditions and I’m not so sure Aaron Boone will give him a full slate of pitches if he continues to struggle.
Severino is only making the start thanks to injuries to Carlos Rodon and Nestro Cortes plus Domingo German's placement on the restricted list. He has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball since the beginning of June with an 11.75 ERA over his last seven appearances. He's coming off a sub-50-pitch outing and pitching on five days of rest. He was getting six days off between starts before the move to the pen.
The Braves have been the No.1 offense on the season, over the last 30 days, 14 days, and seven days. They are seemingly getting better week-to-week, and Michael Harris II has stepped up for Ozzie Albies who is on the IL with a hamstring injury — infielder Vaughn Grissom was recalled to fill his roster spot.
Despite the great offense, if Severino is on a shorter pitch limit, Boone won’t want to get too far behind in the game with his team just 5.5 games back of a wild card. It could be a short day for Severino and allowing seven hits will be a tall task.
THE BAT is projecting 87 pitches and 5.97 hits allowed from the New York starter, which might be a best-case scenario in terms of quantity. With a hits-allowed market at 6.5, that is giving lots of value to the Under — especially if he goes only 60 pitches, which is possible. It’s a little juicy at -139, but the market is falling, and even high projections like this Under.
It could be another multi-run five-hit outing which is something he’s seen in back-to-back games. This guy’s confidence is hanging by a thread and he won't be left in to take a beating.
My best bet: Luis Severino Under 6.5 hits allowed (-139 at Caesars)
Yankees vs Braves same-game parlay
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (-115)
Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-130)
Sean Murphy 2+ total bases (+135)
This is a simple Over TB stack in a game that projects for plenty of offense on both sides.
Ronald Acuna Jr. to get two or more bases isn't a +EV play at its price but it has the second-highest win probability of any player in this game. He could get six at-bats today if the Braves bat in the ninth.
Aaron Judge at -115 is showing some value as he is projected for 2.5 total bases, which is the highest of any player in the game.
Finally, the one pushing the odds the most is Sean Murphy, who got a day off yesterday and has gone yard in back-to-back starts. He's cooled off a bit but still has a .851 OPS since the beginning of June.
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Yankees vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Braves opened as -200 favorites last night and hit -220 by 10:30 a.m. ET this morning. It’s certainly the right move as Severino is lucky to still have a job as a starter considering he has an 11.75 ERA (7.75 FIP) over his last seven games and is only getting the nod today thanks to injuries to New York starters.
The Braves, aided by 9.2-mph winds blowing out, should take advantage of this offensive matchup as Severino has allowed 53 hits over his last 27-plus innings and might not even have a full leash.
Their team total is sitting at 5.5 and paying -137 to the Over at Pinnacle. With a 10.5-run total and some concern with Bryce Elder locking it down, the Braves team total Over might be a better way to bet this game than on the RL or laying juice on the ML. Even the YRFI is priced at -170 today. The Braves have hit the team total Over in 40 of their last 58 games (+19.64 Units / 29% ROI)
Elder could also keep the Atlanta offense engaged as the second-year right-hander has a near-7.00 ERA with a .829 OPS against since the beginning of June and could give up a few runs of his own. THE BAT is projecting 3.11 earned runs from Elder over 17 outs.
This will be Atlanta’s 13th game over the last 12 days and the bullpen could be without setup man Joe Jimenez (2.72 ERA) as he threw more than 20 pitches last night. The pen has performed well over that stretch but they've pitched a lot of innings.
Speaking of relievers, no bullpen has thrown more innings over the last two weeks than the Bombers at 60. Yesterday’s seven-out performance from Clarke Schmidt taxed the already overworked pen and now the best offense in baseball is facing one of the most embattled starters in Severino with a worn-out bullpen behind him.
The total of 10.5 is a little high as the Atlanta bullpen has been very underrated all year, especially of late despite the extra work. I like the Braves to continue to cash those team total Overs as a 29% return over a 58-game streak is one of baseball's most profitable trends.
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Trend to know
The Braves have hit the team total Over in 40 of their last 58 games (+19.64 Units / 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Braves
Yankees vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Tuesday, August 15, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Starting pitchers
Luis Severino (2-7, 8.06 ERA): Severino is currently a fringe starter on this roster but is getting starts thanks to injuries to the rotation. He’s allowed 36 runs over his last seven appearances since the beginning of June and sports an 11.75 ERA over that stretch with 53 hits allowed across 27-plus innings and a .399 average against. He threw 48 pitches in a relief appearance six days ago and might not have a long leash today. The Yankees are 5-9 SU when he pitches and THE BAT projects 87 pitches, 14.9 outs, 4.24 strikeouts, and 3.51 earned runs.
Bryce Elder (8-4, 3.64 ERA): Elder will be making his 24th start of the season and carries a 97:42 K:BB rate over 130-plus innings with 14 home runs. The second-year right-hander has struggled of late and owns a 6.94 ERA (5.75 FIP) since the beginning of June with a .829 OPS against. He’s also allowed 12 runs over his two starts this month. The Braves are 15-8 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 95 pitches, 17 outs, 4.81 strikeouts, and 3.11 earned runs.
