The Yankees found a much-needed series win in Oakland during the week, making it two in a row. The task at hand won’t get much harder in St. Louis over the weekend, but does that mean the Yankees are worth a bet in the opener on Friday?
Let’s break down Yankees vs. Cardinals in our MLB picks and predictions.
Yankees vs Cardinals odds
Yankees vs Cardinals predictions
Matt Liberatore has a nifty, spinny curveball but it’s yet to translate to big-league success. The curve has hardly been touched but little else has been working. His fastball is getting rocked to the tune of a .347 batting average and .341 xBA and his sinker carries with it a .458 xSLG.
It just so happens that this is a nightmare scenario for the St. Louis Cardinals.
The New YorkYankees rank sixth in pitch value per 100 four-seam fastballs, so while they’ve struggled against curveballs that should not matter much here. On top of that, the Yankees have a respectable 106 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
So, I think this is a salvageable spot for the Yankees. Luis Severino has certainly struggled to this point, but his last start against a potent Rangers offense showed me a lot. His average fastball velocity is back up over 97 mph and has now increased in each of his last four starts.
With that, I believe in the Yankees’ right-hander to pick up a win over a very cold Cardinals offense which owns a 92 wRC+ over the last week.
My best bet: Yankees ML (-105 at DraftKings)
Yankees vs Cardinals same-game parlay
Yankees ML
Bader 2+ Total Bases
Liberatore Under 3.5 Ks
If you’re hunting for a lefty-masher to fill up your parlay, look no further than Harrison Bader. The Yankees’ starting center fielder is locked into the heart of the order these days for New York and should have plenty of opportunities to knock Liberatore around.
Heading back to St. Louis for the first time, Bader enters this one with a .400 average versus lefties. On top of that, seven of the 10 hits he has against southpaws have gone for extra bases.
I love putting Bader in here as we fade Liberatore hard, and speaking of which I love shorting his strikeouts as well. The Yankees are striking out in just 20.6% of plate appearances over the last two weeks which is one of the best marks in the majors and it’s doubtful Liberatore hangs around long enough to even sniff this number.
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Yankees vs Cardinals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This is a tricky total to bet, because on the one hand you have a very poor starter on the hill in Liberatore but on the other you have two offenses who have been ice cold. On top of that, Severino has been pretty much unpredictable this season. It seems he’s trending in the right direction but he just as easily could run cold again here.
With the heart of the Cardinals’ order still struggling, I think I side with the Under here. Severino has his velocity back which was really the key concern for the Yankees right-hander. It’ll help his changeup play up more and should lead to some gains in the strikeout department.
Severino has also dealt with some glaring issues in the home run department but has allowed just one in his last three starts.
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Trend to know
The Over is 7-0 in Yankees last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Cardinals
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Yankees vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Friday, June 30, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime Video, Bally Sports Midwest |
Starting pitchers
Luis Severino (1-2, 5.25 ERA): Severino owns an ugly 6.93 ERA in the month of June but turned in his best start of the season in a win over the Rangers last time out. He’s still only made seven starts and has plenty of time to turn things around.
Matthew Liberatore (1-2, 5.60 ERA): The young lefty has fallen flat on his face in his second year in the bigs, pitching to a 5.60 ERA and 7.24 xERA. He sits inside the bottom 10% of the league in all of the expected stats and is only striking out hitters at a 16% clip.
