The New York Yankees visit the Seattle Mariners in a matchup where one team is in the middle of the American League Wild Card race and the other is quickly falling out of it.
But it might shock the casual baseball fan to realize it is the Bronx Bombers who are floundering at the moment, not the M’s. Can this surprisingly scrappy Mariners team take advantage of the struggling Yankees?
Check out our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Mariners on Tuesday, July 6.
Yankees vs Mariners game info
• Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
• Date: Tuesday, July 6, 2021
• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, ROOTNW
Yankees vs Mariners odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonNew York has stretched out to -182 as of 7 p.m. ET at TwinSpires Sportsbook, where the Pinstripes opened -145. The Yankees are taking 75 percent of tickets, but only 57 percent of cash on the moneyline. "Despite the movement, the money isn’t that lopsided," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said, while pointing out this is the last game of the night and could be impacted by the rest of the Tuesday slate. "Our [Yankees] parlay liability could grow depending on the early results, making the Mariners a bigger need." The total rose from 9 to 9.5, with ticket count and money both in the 2/1 range on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameYankees vs Mariners betting preview
Starting pitchers
James Taillon (3-4, 5.43 ERA): It was a rough month of June for Taillon. The right-hander pitched to a 6.14 ERA and allowed opponents to hit .322 in his five starts that month and is coming off a performance where he surrendered five runs on nine hits to the Angels.
Justus Sheffield (5-7, 5.88 ERA): Unfortunately for Seattle, the month of June was even worse for Sheffield. The former Yankees prospect was roughed up to the tune of a 7.83 ERA with opponents whacking him around for a .337 batting average. Sheffield has pitched five innings just once in his last four starts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: Zack Britton RP (Out), Clint Frazier OF (Out).
Mariners: Andres Munoz RP (Questionable), Casey Sadler RP (Out), Erik Swanson RP (Out), Kyle Lewis CF (Out), Ljay Newson RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in Taillon's last five starts on the road. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mariners.
Moneyline pick
The Yankees enter this matchup having lost seven of their last nine games and now sit in fourth place in the AL East. So, what is the cause of the Yanks’ problems? First and foremost is their inconsistent offense.
The Yankees almost entirely rely on the long ball for offense at this point. New York ranks sixth in home runs but 25th in scoring.
But the starting pitching hasn’t helped much, either. The Yanks’ current rotation, not including Gerrit Cole, combines for a 4.46 ERA, and even Cole has looked a little lost lately since the crackdown on the sticky stuff.
Meanwhile, the Mariners might be one of the most baffling teams in baseball. They are the worst hitting team in the big leagues in terms of batting average, they have a team ERA that ranks 20th, and have a -42-run differential. But they are five games over .500 and sit 3.5 games out of the second wild-card spot.
So what is a bettor to do in this situation? Well, the answer here is Sheffield. The Yankees hit a little better against southpaws, ranking 16th in average and 14th in OPS. Sheffield has also surrendered eight dingers in his last five starts, which is actually something New York can take advantage of.
With Sheffield also not working too deep into games and a big advantage in the bullpens favoring New York, the Yanks, despite their struggles, are worth a moneyline wager in this spot.
PREDICTION: Yankees (-145)
Over/Under pick
When it comes to the total, we may be getting some value on the Over 9.0. We are likely getting this number due to the struggling offenses, but it seems a little low considering the starters on the bump in this one.
We noted both starters really struggled in June, but it goes deeper than that. Taillon has been really roughed up on the road, where his ERA balloons to 11.12 with a 2.12 WHIP. He faces an M’s lineup that is playing better than it has all season, plating 5.33 runs per game over their last nine contests.
Sheffield, meanwhile, has had a problem with the long ball and despite having trouble getting in the win column, the Yankees have plated 6.2 runs per game over their last five games. Bet the Over with confidence in this one.
PREDICTION: Over 9 (-110)
Yankees vs Mariners betting card
- Yankees (-145)
- Over 9 (-110)
Picks made on 7/06/2021 at 8:18 a.m. ET
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