The Subway Series continues between the New York Yankees and New York Mets.
The Yankees have lost four straight and seven of 10, and Luis Gil has started to hit some serious regression. They lost game one of this series last night, and the streaking Mets are looking to make it two straight. My Yankees vs. Mets predictions don't think it'll go their way in the beginning, though.
Read on for my free MLB Picks on Wednesday, June 26th.
Yankees vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Yankees F5 moneyline (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
We’re getting a discount on the New York Yankees here because everything has suddenly gone off the rails. They seemed to be in cruise control as recently as a week ago, and things have changed dramatically. With that, however, has come some value. I’m grabbing the Bombers early in this one as my best bet.
What’s gone wrong with today’s starting pitcher, Luis Gil? Well, mainly that he’s just faced some bad matchups. Gil had gone the entire month of May giving up a combined three earned runs, and in two of his last three starts, he’s given up seven earned runs to the Baltimore Orioles and three to the Los Angeles Dodgers. These two teams hit the ball hardest in baseball while avoiding the ground ball. This was always likely to be a point of weakness for Gil and his ground ball rate sitting in the Bottom 10% of the league.
The New York Mets, who have baseball's 10th-highest ground ball rate, aren’t nearly as well equipped to exploit these issues. And while they have a pretty impressive hard-hit rate, Gil has seemed to tame offenses with similar metrics.
On the other side is where things turn the tide. This is a rough matchup for Sean Manaea, who will take the mound for the Mets.
Manaea gives up the hard-hit ball at an excessively high clip, and even given their recent struggles, that’s not the issue you want when facing this Yankees offense. He’ll come into today ranking in the bottom 30% of hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and exit velocity. Why is that such a problem against the Yankees? Because they rank in the Top 3 in all these metrics.
Tonight is a natural strength on weakness for the Yankees offense and, at worst, we should expect a solid performance from Gil. The market has overreacted to the Bronx Bombers' recent struggles, and we’re taking advantage of them. I’d play this down to -138.
Yankees vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees F5 ML
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
Aaron Judge has the fifth-highest isolated power against left-handed pitchers. In addition, Judge ranks in the 99th percentile of hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and exit velocity. Manaea ranks in the bottom 30% of all these metrics. This is a dream matchup and one that should play into both legs of this parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Mets odds
Yankees vs Mets live odds
Yankees vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: NYY -1.5 (+115) | NYM +1.5 (-140)
- Moneyline: NYY -145 | NYM +120
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Yankees vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mets have been one of the best teams in baseball over the last 10 games, winning eight and yielding bettors 6.5 units.
- The Yankees have headed in the opposite direction. They’ve lost seven of 10, a significant -4.7 units lost for bettors.
- The Mets have won six of their last 10 vs. the Yankees.
- Eight of the Yankees' last 10 games have hit the Over.
Yankees vs Mets trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 46 games (+17.65 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mets
Yankees vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, Queens |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AmazonPV |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (9-2, 2.77 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Sean Manaea (4-3, 4.16 ERA) |
Yankees vs Mets latest injuries
Yankees vs Mets weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
