The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox face off in the second contest of a three-game set at Fenway Park on Saturday.
Just a month ago, the Bronx Bombers were on pace to set the MLB regular-season record for wins but have since fallen into a slump which was punctuated by an extra-innings loss to the Red Sox last night. Boston has also fallen on hard times and sits below .500.
Which team will get on track today? We let you know with our best free Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB picks and predictions for August 13.
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with the Yankees installed as -145 road favorites with the Over/Under at 9.5. As of 11 a.m. ET the line has remained relatively unchanged, although the total has ticked down to 9.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Yankees vs Red Sox predictions
- Prediction: Yankees ML (-145)
- Prediction: Under 9 (-105)
- Best bet: Devers Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Picks made on 8/13/2022 at 11 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Yankees vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Saturday, August 13, 2022
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Yankees vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Frankie Montas (4-9, 3.59 ERA): Montas was acquired by the Yankees at the trade deadline, and in his first appearance with his new team last Sunday he surrendered six runs in just three innings of work. The 29-year-old was more effective with Oakland, where he pitched to a 3.18 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a 3.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 19 starts.
Kutter Crawford (3-4, 4.30 ERA): The rookie is coming off a rough outing against the Royals where he gave up five earned runs through five innings. He began the year coming out of the bullpen, where he had a 5.63 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP in 16 innings across nine games. Crawford has looked sharper since being added to the rotation where he's pitched a 3.80 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an OBA of .236 in eight starts.
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Red Sox are 4-9 in their last 13 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox
Yankees vs Red Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Yankees were dominant in the first half of the season but have since fallen off the rails, going 7-14 since the All-Star break. Their defeat in the 10th inning last night was their eighth loss in their last nine games.
The Red Sox have also fallen apart at the seams, having gone 14-27 in their last 41 games and they now sit at the bottom of the AL East with a 56-58 record.
Even with the Yankees playing sub-.500 ball over the last 30 days, they've still ranked fourth in the majors with an OPS of .784. Over the same period of time, the BoSox have an OPS of just .675.
Boston will give the ball to rookie Kutter Crawford, who doesn't have a large sample size and had looked good as a starter before getting rocked in his last game against a mediocre KC lineup. He needs to use his curveball more because he's been overly reliant on his four-seamer and cutter, which haven't been effective. He's also an extreme flyball pitcher (38.4% FB% per THE BAT projections) which could be problematic against a hard-hitting Yankees lineup at Fenway.
The Yankees will respond with recent acquisition Frankie Montas. Montas is an experienced starter who has pitched to a 3.45 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP since the start of the 2021 season. One thing that Montas does extremely well is get batters to swing and miss outside of the strike zone, which will make life tough for a Red Sox lineup that ranks 25th in the majors in chase rate.
When it comes to the bullpens, the Yankees have a major edge, with their relievers pitching to a 2.98 ERA (second in the majors) and a 1.15 WHIP (fourth). The Red Sox bullpen has struggled with a collective 4.41 ERA (25th) and a 1.32 WHIP (21st).
While the Yankees have looked pretty bad over the last month, they still haven't looked quite as awful as the Red Sox and there's a reason they are still 15.5 games ahead of them in the standings. With their advantages at the dish and in the bullpen, I'll back them to bounce back with a win today.
Prediction: Yankees moneyline (-145 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Crawford struggled in his last appearance, but he had looked very sharp in his six previous starts, pitching to a 2.38 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP. That stretch included a strong performance against the Yankees on July 9 when he limited New York to four hits and one run across five innings.
Montas had also been locked in before an ugly start on Sunday in his Yankees debut. In his last 14 starts with the A's he had pitched to a 2.76 ERA.
The top-heavy Red Sox lineup has had plenty of problems generating runs over the last month and is averaging just 3.72 runs per game over the last 30 days.
The Yankees have also had a tough time coming up with hits when they need to, and injuries to Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Carpenter have sapped some of the power from their lineup. They've scored three runs or fewer in six of their last eight contests. I'm leaning towards the Under.
Prediction: Under 9 (-105 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Boston's Rafael Devers is in a bit of a slump, having gone just 6 for 39 (.154 BA) at the plate this month. That said, the Silver Slugger third baseman is still eighth in the majors in total bases (224) while ranking fifth in slugging percentage (.577).
The left-handed hitter slashes .315/.382/.620 against righties and has gone 5-for-8 with a pair of doubles against Montas in their head-to-head history. I'm backing Devers to go Over 1.5 on his total bases at plus money.
Rafael Devers prop pick: Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at bet365)
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