How about a rivalry for Sunday Night Baseball?
The Yankees took the first two games of the series in two high-scoring affairs that totaled 28 runs.
The Pinstripes have the best record in baseball and will turn to Jameson Taillon in the colluding game of the series on Sunday. Boston counters with Nick Pivetta and hopes to even the series at two apiece.
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for Sunday Night Baseball between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox on Sunday, July 10.
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Boston opened +117 at home but the line has moved a tad. The Red Sox currently sit between +110 and +116 depending on the book. The total is set at 9 across all books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Yankees vs Red Sox predictions
Picks made on 7/10/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Yankees vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Sunday, July 10, 2022
• First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Yankees vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jameson Taillon (9-2, 3.63 ERA): Taillon has rebounded nicely after a difficult first season in New York, lowering his ERA from 4.30 a year ago to 3.63 this season. He’s been roughed up in his last few starts, allowing 14 earned runs across only 16 innings. He has a 3.82 xERA and a 3.40 FIP, so his peripherals are solid. He doesn’t strike many batters out (20% strikeout rate) but counteracts that with a very low walk rate (3%). His 4.6% barrel rate indicates he does a decent job of limiting hard contact.
Nick Pivetta (8-6, 3.68 ERA): Pivetta had the worst outing of his season against the Tampa Bay Rays in his last start. He allowed seven earned runs across only 5 2-3 innings while taking the loss. It was only the second time allowing more than three earned runs in his last 10 starts. His 3.68 ERA is the lowest of his career, as he’s never been below 4.00 across a full season. His 4.20 xERA does indicate that some minor regression is coming and his 5.8% barrel rate could be better.
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Yankees are 10-3 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox
Yankees vs Red Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
It’s safe to say these ball clubs have played each other a time or two in their day. The Yankees lead this longtime rivalry with a 1,248-1,034-14 record. New York has gotten the best of this series in 2022, winning four of the six matchups.
You can argue that the Yankees hold the advantage in starting pitching, hitting, and relief pitching in this matchup.
Despite the two starting pitchers having similar surface-level statistics, Jameson Taillon’s peripherals are better. His 3.82 xERA bests Pivetta’s 4.20 xERA, and his barrel rate (4.6%) is over a full percentage point lower than Pivetta’s (5.8%).
Both pitchers have been hit hard in recent outings, with Taillon allowing 14 earned runs across his last three starts and Pivetta allowed seven earned in his last outing.
Perhaps starting pitching can be considered a wash, as I trust Taillon’s statistical profile more between the two but am concerned with his recent results. He was close to a perfect game against the Los Angeles Angels back on June 2 and appeared to be one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. Since then, his ERA has ballooned to 3.63 — still decent, but not what it once was.
When it gets to the bullpen, the Yankees have the second-best ERA (2.68) in relief. It’s a full run lower than Boston’s bullpen ERA (3.69).
The Yankees lineup ranks first in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They hold the edge over the Red Sox, who rank seventh in OPS, seventh in wOBA, and ninth in wRC+. Boston is also expected to be without their best player in Rafael Devers. Hours after being named the starting third baseman in the All-Star Game for the American League, he injured his back in Friday’s game while crashing into a side rail.
The Yankees lineup has been hot, ranking first in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ across the last 10 days. Look for that to continue en route to another win.
Prediction: Yankees moneyline (-127 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
The first three games of this series all went Over the total. The Yankees have been hot at the plate seemingly all season, but especially so of late — they’ve scored 23 runs across the first three games of this series.
Pivetta has been a stable arm but he does have a 4.20 xERA and he allows slightly too much hard contact (5.8% barrel rate) when facing a lineup this potent.
The Over has cashed in four straight overall for the Yankees, and all four games have come against right-handed pitching.
Boston has been trending to the Over as well, going Over the total in four of its last five games. The Over is 8-2 in Red Sox's last 10 after allowing five runs or more in their previous game, which will be the case after yesterday’s 6-5 Red Sox win.
I believe we see more runs Sunday night. It’s been the theme thus far in this series, and there’s reason to believe these teams will continue to make fireworks.
Pivetta allowed seven earned runs in his last start and now faces the MLB’s best lineup, and Taillon’s numbers have been going in the wrong direction for over a month.
Prediction: Over 9 (+100 at DraftKings)
Best bet
I will be playing the Yankees on the moneyline in this matchup as I believe they’re the superior team and -130 is a decent price to pay, especially with Devers expected to be out of the lineup for the Red Sox.
I’m not fully trustworthy of Taillon given his recent struggles on the mound, so I’ll be targetting the Yankees team total instead of the side as my best bet. The Pinstripes have been hot at the plate, ranking first in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ both on the season and within the last 10 days.
Pivetta has struggled against the Yankees, allowing 11 earned runs across only 14 2-3 innings in four career meetings. Books are offering plus money for the Yankees to score more than 2.5 runs within the first five innings and I love the price.
Pick: Yankees first five innings team total Over 2.5 (+120 at DraftKings)
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