The New York Yankees will go for a two-game series sweep as they take on the last-place Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Wednesday.
The Yankees held on for a 7-6 extra-innings win over the Red Sox on Tuesday night, with Aaron Judge hitting two more homers to bring his season total to 57.
Oddsmakers see a tight matchup tonight, but there is clear value on one of these teams. Find out who we like in our MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Red Sox on September 14.
Yankees vs Red Sox best odds
Yankees vs Red Sox picks and predictions
The Yankees enjoyed one of the best extended starts in MLB history, putting up a staggering 56-21 record over the first three months of the season. New York has cooled since then — the Yankees went just 10-18 in a dreadful August run — but seems to be righting the ship for the stretch run, winning seven of its past 11 games.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are playing out the string. Boston finds itself in last place in the AL East, 10.5 games out of wild-card contention at 69-73. It’s a disappointing result for a team that looked to contend for a playoff spot at the start of the season, but which has been unable to compete with its divisional rivals all year long. Things aren’t getting any better in Boston, as the Sox have lost five of their last seven games.
Looking at these two teams, it seems clear the Yankees should be the favorite on Wednesday night. And while they are, New York is only a -130 pick at most books, with even better odds available on some sites.
We can try to make sense of this by noting that the Red Sox are far better at Fenway (35-35) than on the road while the Yankees struggle a bit away from home (36-34). Some may point to the fact that Boston has played New York tough this year, as the Yankees are 8-6 against the Red Sox on the season, splitting the eight games played in Boston.
But this is all noise, producing numbers that are artifacts of small sample sizes. The Yankees are a far better team than the Red Sox and seem to be past their August slump. New York will also play behind All-Star left-hander Nestor Cortes tonight, while Boston sends struggling rookie Brayan Bello to the mound.
Wednesday’s game has all the makings of a mismatch. Since the oddsmakers are treating it as a highly competitive contest, I’m happy to make a simple bet on the moneyline. Let’s take the Yankees with the best odds we can find on the market tonight.
My best bet: Yankees moneyline (-125 at PointsBet)
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Yankees vs Red Sox betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
New York comes into Wednesday having won three straight games and seven of its last nine, a run that has kept the Yankees in control of the AL East. The New York lineup has been particularly hot over the last week, bashing 14 home runs over seven games while hitting .263 with an .804 OPS during that span.
The Yankees get a favorable matchup tonight against rookie Brayan Bello, who has put up a 1.74 WHIP over his first 37 1-3 innings in the majors. Bello has pitched better in his last four starts, but the 23-year-old is still finding his legs in the majors and hasn’t faced the Yankees yet in his career.
New York lefty Nestor Cortes will make his second start since returning from a groin injury. He looked good in an abbreviated four-inning stint against the Minnesota Twins in his return on September 8.
The Red Sox enter Wednesday having lost five of their past seven games. Boston continues to struggle mightily against its divisional opponents, going just 20-41 against AL East opponents on the season.
Over/Under analysis
The consensus total for tonight’s game is 9, and you should expect to see plenty of runs scored. Both teams are hitting well, Fenway Park favors hitters, and the pitching matchup also lends itself to run scoring, though not in the same way for both teams.
While the Red Sox may be struggling, their bats have been red hot over the past month. Boston is hitting .290 with a .789 OPS in its last 25 games, averaging 5.16 runs per game in that span. The Red Sox hit even better against lefthanded pitching. Xander Bogaerts has put up a 1.030 OPS against southpaws this year, while Trevor Story and J.D. Martinez also put up much better numbers against lefties.
Cortes will tamp down on the offense a bit while he stays in the game, but the Yankees are still stretching him out as he recovers from his groin injury. Boston also touched up Cortes for four runs in just 3 2-3 innings the last time they saw him at Fenway on July 8, proving they can hit the Yankees All-Star.
There’s also no reason to think the Yankees can’t hit Bello. The Red Sox rookie shows plenty of promise but continues to put runners on base at a dangerous clip. Bello allows 10.8 hits and 4.8 walks per nine innings. From Judge on down through Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, and Josh Donaldson, the New York lineup is loaded with hitters who will take advantage of those opportunities with men on base.
However, it’s worth noting that Bello hasn’t allowed a single home run in his 37 1-3 innings of work so far. That may make it a good night to stay away from the Judge home run props, even as he closes in on the American League single-season record of 61.
Yankees vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Wednesday, September 14, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, YES Network
Starting pitchers
Frankie Montas (5-12, 3.89 ERA): Cortes has improved his command while also limiting the number of home runs he is giving up — a notable problem earlier in his career — to put up a 3.37 FIP and a 0.948 WHIP this season. While Cortes missed a couple of weeks with a groin injury, he came back to face the Twins on September 8, throwing four perfect innings before giving up two runs in the fifth without recording an out, a sign that he is still building to longer starts down the stretch run.
Brayan Bello (1-5, 5.79 ERA): The lanky right-hander throws a fastball in the upper 90s along with a good changeup and slider. While he suffered his lumps early after the Red Sox called him up in early June, Bello has looked better of late, allowing eight runs over 20 1-3 innings for a 3.58 ERA over his last four starts.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Yankees are 7-2 in their last nine games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox
