It's the New York Yankees vs. the Boston Red Sox. Do I need to say more? The two teams will open up a three-game weekend series tonight at Fenway Park.
It's been business as usual for the Yankees, entering the weekend with the best record in the American League. My Yankees vs Red Sox predictions are tailing Juan Soto as he's set to thrive in a favorable matchup against Brayan Bello.
Read more in our MLB picks for Friday, June 14.
Yankees vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (-105 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Boston Red Sox rotation decided early on this season to veer away from throwing the fastball. It's been heavily documented why, but to simplify things, Boston decided the worst result would nearly always outweigh the best positive outcome.
As a result, the Red Sox possess the lowest fastball rate since 2008, and it's not particularly close. It's been reflected in starting pitcher Brayan Bello, who has been exclusively throwing breaking balls all season, with the sinker and changeup accounting for nearly 80% of the right-hander's arsenal.
Unfortunately for Boston, New York Yankees slugger Juan Soto has been incredible against breaking balls this season. The 25-year-old superstar ranks first amongst Yankees in hard-hit rate against the sinker and second in batting average against both that offering and the changeup.
No matter how Bello approaches Soto, he will have to give in to him at some point considering Aaron Judge looms on deck. This play is a no-brainer for me, and I would play it all the way up to -117.
Yankees vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
Aaron Judge to hit a home run
Nobody has hit the breaking ball harder in baseball than Judge this season. He leads the sport in hard-hit rate against the change-up and ranks 10th against the sinker.
With a matchup so favorable, how can you say no to backing the Yankees captain? I feel great about riding the duo of Soto and Judge to round out our SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
Yankees vs Red Sox live odds
Yankees vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+100) | Boston +1.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: New York -150 | Boston +125
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)
Yankees vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- Boston has gotten the better of New York lately, with wins in seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
- Yankee bettors are up over two units over the last 10 games, as New York has gone 7-3 in that stretch.
- The Red Sox have only hit the moneyline in 16 of their last 35 games at home (-7.60 Units / -17% ROI).
- The Yankees have hit the F5 team total Over in 34 of their last 48 games (+18.79 Units / 32% ROI).
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Yankees vs Red Sox trend
The Yankees have covered the run line in 28 of their last 37 games (+23.80 Units / 54% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox
Yankees vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, 6-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, NESN |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (8-1, 2.04 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Cooper Criswell (3-3, 4.13 ERA) |
Yankees vs Red Sox latest injuries
Yankees vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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