After a devastating loss to the Boston Red Sox late on Friday night, the New York Yankees will look to pick up the pieces and get one back in this pivotal road series on Saturday.
Marcus Stroman will get the nod for New York, fresh off one of his most promising outings of the season. He’s opposed by the talented Kutter Crawford, who’s looking for a rebound after last Sunday’s disaster in L.A.
Let’s get right into our in-depth Yankees vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, July 27.
Yankees vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Over 10 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The New York Yankees are mired in a miserable stretch right now, but it’s not as if this offense has gotten a whole lot worse at the dish. It’s still running out the eighth-best offense in the league this month by wRC+, continuing to limit strikeouts at just a 20% clip and walking in a league-high 11.4% of plate appearances.
The big issue has come in the Yankees’ inability to make contact, hitting just .236 during this time. But the positive here is that their Isolated Power remains a strong .189 this month and in the past week this team is hitting a firm .265.
Kutter Crawford is a fly-ball pitcher, which has generally jived with the Yankees’ approach this season. The right-hander owns a .428 xSLG which checks in well worse than the league average, showing why he’s been reliant on punchouts for most of the year. With New York getting plenty of balls back into play lately, it should be in position to do damage.
Then there’s Marcus Stroman, who’s been a rather extreme ground-ball pitcher with 49.5% of batted balls against him coming back on the ground. The Boston Red Sox own the top OPS in baseball against ground-ball arms at .882 while hitting .318, which is 29 points better than the next-best team. It’s a dream spot, and to make matters even sweeter for the Red Sox they’ve begun to walk more – which will come in handy against a pitcher who’s historically struggled to limit free passes.
I expect another slugfest on Saturday.
Yankees vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9.5
Rafael Devers 2+ total bases
Oswaldo Cabrera 2+ total bases
Let’s back two hitters to rack up bases in an effort to get us to respectable number for this parlay.
The first man has to be Rafael Devers, who has once again killed the Yankees this year with a .360/.469/.760 slash line in seven contests with three homers and a double. He ranks 12th in total bases against ground-ball arms like Stroman, hitting a stunning .346. And while he’s just 1-for-12 in his career versus the Yankees righty, he’s posted a .315 xBA in those at-bats.
While I could go with the launch-angle champion in Aaron Judge here, I’m going to dig a bit deeper and back Oswaldo Cabrera to go for two or more total bases. He’s 1-for-4 against the fly ball-oriented Crawford in his career and is one of the better Yankees hitters against these types, hitting .261. He came up big for New York on Friday with two hits, and now has two hits in three of his last four contests.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
Yankees vs Red Sox live odds
Yankees vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 | Boston +1.5
- Moneyline: New York -104 | Boston -104
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Yankees vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Red Sox opened up around -105 to win this game on Friday evening before the line moved steeply down to -120 on Saturday morning.
- The total was initially set at 9.5, quickly hit 10, and has remained there with the late money pushing for the Over.
- 56% of bettors over at DraftKings are on the Yankees to win, and a firm 64% of the money is on the visitors.
- Bettors are split on the total with 50% of the tickets coming in on each of the two sides, but 56% of the handle is on the Over.
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Yankees vs Red Sox trend
The Yankees have hit the Over in 32 of their last 48 games (+16.15 Units / 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox
Yankees vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Marcus Stroman (7-5, 3.51 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Kutter Crawford (8-8, 3.37 ERA) |
Yankees vs Red Sox latest injuries
Yankees vs Red Sox weather
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