Montreal hope to continue their strong run of form at home in MLS and push their unbeaten streak at Stade Saputo to eight matches, but they need to start getting wins, as they’ve claimed maximum points from just four of their 11 home matches. Saturday presents a perfect spot to do so, against a rival Toronto FC side that beat them 5-1 back in May.
Toronto manager John Herdman called this one a "six-point match” given the positioning in the table. Both teams sit on 27 points and an equal -14 goal differential, with Toronto holding the tiebreaker for eighth, but both teams have competition, with the bottom six clubs in the East all sitting within five points.
We discuss whether the visitors can avoid a fifth straight road defeat in our CF Montreal vs. Toronto FC predictions for Saturday, July 20.
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC picks and predictions
My best bet:
Montreal team total Over 1.5 (-125 at Betano)
My analysis
It’s been a rough season for Toronto FC when they’ve played away from home and you have to go back to late April to find their last road victory. Their 2-1 win over Orlando City was just the second time this campaign they’ve claimed three points away from home, and they've taken just two of a possible 21 points since.
A big reason for their struggles is how poor they’ve been defensively. Toronto’s last five hosts have all scored multiple goals, and TFC has conceded 2+ goals in all but two of their last 11 away matches.
Now they make the long trip north on short rest after a 3-1 defeat to Miami on Wednesday night. Their performance was poor, conceding three times on 1.38 xG to a Miami team that was missing Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez in attack.
While Montreal’s offense hasn’t been the most explosive of late, they rarely get shut out at home. The hosts have a goal in nine of 11 home matches, including four straight, and have scored 2+ in six of those outings.
They found the back of the net twice on Wednesday night at NY Red Bulls, with Josef Martinez registering both goals off the bench. He now has three goals in his last five matches after returning from injury.
Montreal have scored 19 goals in 11 home matches, outperforming their xG by nearly two goals. For Toronto, their 26 goals conceded in 13 away fixtures trail only Montreal for the most goals given up in the East. And it dwarfs the 19.1 xGA they’ve posted, showing just how poorly they’ve defended.
These teams aren’t fond of one another and they tend to treat us to a show. The last four meetings have seen the home team score multiple goals and Montreal wants revenge for the beatdown they took two months ago. Back the hosts to put at least two on the board here.
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC same-game parlay (SGP)
Montreal team total Over 1.5
Montreal moneyline
Over 9.5 corners
Travel is such an overlooked aspect of MLS, and teams coming off short rest and long trips often struggle. Montreal had a short trek to New Jersey for their match on Wednesday night, but Toronto is coming off a round-trip to sweltering Miami that was more than six hours long.
Toronto has also lost seven of their last eight matches overall and four straight on the road. They’ve won just once in their last 11 and now face a Montreal side unbeaten in their last seven at home. Montreal has won three of those matches and the revenge aspect combined with fresher legs has me backing them to claim all three points in a pivotal playoff decider.
Neither of these teams earns corner kicks at a high rate, but they sure do concede them. Toronto’s 138 corners conceded are the fifth most in MLS, while Montreal paces the league with 145 corners given up.
That benefits us, as the total of 9.5 is a fairly low one and isn’t far off the 7.14 combined corners these teams earn on average per match. Five of their last six meetings have featured at least nine corners, with four of those seeing 12 or more.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC odds
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC live odds
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC opening odds
- Moneyline: CF Montreal -110 | Toronto FC +250
- Draw: +290
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-200) | Under 2.5 (+150)
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC side and Over/Under analysis
- Montreal are favored on the 3-way line, with +115 odds on offer. Toronto is second choice at +215, while the draw offers value at +275.
- Montreal are unbeaten at home in their last seven, while Toronto has lost seven of their last eight including four straight away matches.
- The oddsmakers are expecting goals, with Over 2.5 priced at -167. The Asian total of 3.0 is close to even, with the Under favored at -114.
- The last four meetings between these sides have averaged 5.0 goals and Toronto’s last five away fixtures have all seen 3+ goals scored.
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC game info
| Location: | Stade Saputo, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Saturday, July 20, 2024 |
| Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
| Weather: | Pleasant to start with temps in the mid-70s, but rain will roll in around halftime. |
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC key injuries
CF Montreal: Lassi Lappalainen D (Doubtful), Logan Ketterer GK (Out).
Toronto FC: Alonso Coello M (Out), Brandon Servania M (Out), Tyrese Spicer D (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
