The fans in Vancouver won’t get the match they expected on Saturday night when the Whitecaps play host to Inter Miami.
Those in attendance will receive discounts on food and drink after the news broke Friday that Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, and Sergio Busquets would not make the 12-hour round-trip flight to the Pacific Northwest. But there are bigger concerns at hand for a Vancouver side that has taken just three points from their last five matches in MLS play.
Find out why the missing star power should lead to a lack of firepower in my Vancouver Whitecaps vs Inter Miami prediction for May 25.
Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps picks and predictions
My best bet:
Under 2.5 goals (+135 at TonyBet)
My analysis
When news broke of the Barcelona trio being left behind, the betting markets quickly adjusted. Vancouver went from +160 to win on the 3-way line to being favored at -125, leaving those fortunate enough to react quickly with a terrific bet.
However, not all markets reacted the same, and the total goals market is still offering some strong value with the Under. The line is set to 3.0 goals, but I’m taking a bit more of a risk and going with Under 2.5 at plus odds.
That’s because while everyone else is talking about what Inter Miami will or won’t have, I’m looking at the hosts. And quite frankly, they’re mired in a goal drought that has left Vancouver fans scratching their heads.
The Whitecaps started the season strong, scoring 14 goals in the first six outings, but have mustered five goals in the seven games since.
Three of those goals came against their rivals in Seattle, and all three times the Sounders were down a man. That includes their 1-1 draw in Seattle last weekend, where they won a penalty four minutes into stoppage time to salvage a 1-1 draw. The foul led to a red card and was the only thing that kept them from going four consecutive MLS outings without a goal.
Inter Miami’s defense hasn’t been great this year, but it's shown marked improvement. Miami have kept consecutive clean sheets for the first time all season but also managed just one goal of their own — despite having the likes of Messi and Suarez in attack.
I’m not saying Inter Miami will keep another clean sheet, especially without Sergio Busquets in the midfield. But they will have Jordi Alba on the flank and Drake Callender in net. And so far, only three keepers can top his +4.4 post-shot xG mark on the season.
Inter Miami have shown they can’t consistently create without Messi, and Vancouver have been struggling to create at all. Combine the two with a home crowd that’s less than happy with the missing stars, and the scene is set for a sleepy, low-scoring affair.
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Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 3
Both teams to score: no
Inter Miami win or draw
Inter Miami won’t have Messi — and they rarely win without him — but I think the market has overcorrected here. Vancouver lost 1-0 midweek to Calvary FC in the Canadian Championship with a rotated side, but that now means they’ve won just once in their last seven matches in all competitions. I’ll back the side riding a seven-match unbeaten streak, even without their stars.
That said, I think one of these sides comes out without a goal. Inter Miami takes the seventh-fewest shots in the league but gets away with it due to the clinical finishing possessed by Messi and Suarez. They won’t have that here, but they’ll face a Whitecaps side that sits just one spot above them in that metric. This has the feel of 0-0 or 1-0 to me.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps odds
Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps live odds
Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps opening odds
- Moneyline: Inter Miami +134 | Vancouver Whitecaps +155
- Draw: +260
- Over/Under: Over 3.0 (-125) | Under 3.0 (-110)
Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps side and Over/Under analysis
- Inter Miami have gone from +140 to +300 on the 3-way moneyline, while Vancouver sits at -125 after opening at +160. The draw hasn’t shifted much, moving from +270 to +300.
- Inter Miami have taken points from their last four away matches, a club record.
- The total of 3.0 goals sees the Under priced at -128.
- There have been two or fewer goals in six of Vancouver’s last eight matches in all competitions.
Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps game info
| Location: | BC Place, Vancouver, BC |
| Date: | Saturday, May 25, 2024 |
| Time: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
| Weather: | Temp 58F, wind 6-10 mph, POP 51% |
Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps key injuries
Inter Miami: Lionel Messi F (Out), Sergio Busquets M (Out), Luis Suarez F (Out), Diego Gomez M (Out).
Vancouver Whitecaps: Sam Adekugbe D (Out), Damir Kreilach M (Out), Andres Cubas M (Doubtful).
Not intended for use in MA.
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