Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Picks and Predictions: Six-Strings will extend home unbeaten run
The last time Nashville lost an MLS match at home was before the election of 2020. Now, they look to move their lengthy home unbeaten run into their new home as they welcome Philadelphia for the first-ever match at GEODIS Park after opening the campaign with eight straight road contests.
The fixture is a rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference semifinals, which Philadelphia won in a penalty shootout. Will Nashville get revenge for their playoff loss and maintain the MLS’ longest unbeaten home run, or will the Union ruin the homecoming? Here are our Nashville vs Philadelphia MLS picks and predictions for Sunday, May 1.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLS odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union betting tips
- Prediction: Draw (+220)
- Prediction: Over 2.0 goals Asian total (-130)
- Best bet: Both teams to score (+100)
Predictions made on 4/30/2022 at 1:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union game info
• Location: GEODIS Park, Nashville, TN
• Date: Sunday, May 1, 2022
• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union betting preview
Weather
The debut of MLS’ newest stadium will be picturesque on Sunday afternoon, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures at kickoff in the mid-80s. The chance of rain is quite low, and wind impact should be minimal.
Injuries
Nashville SC: Irakoze Donasiyano M (Out), Robert Castellanos D (Out), Teal Bunbury F (Out).
Philadelphia Union: None.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Nashville’s third MLS season sees them finally moving into a home of their own. After sharing Nissan Stadium with the NFL’s Titans the past two years, the rabid fans have snatched up every ticket for the debut match at GEOGIS Park. After winning nine matches and drawing nine others last year, regular season and playoffs combined, Nashville will look to push their streak to 20 straight without a home defeat.
Their 2021 campaign was built around their outstanding defense, and the brilliance of attacking midfielder Hany Mukhtar. The MVP runner-up, Mukhtar led the league with 13 home goals, and has contributed to 42 goals in his 54 matches played. This season, however, he’s not getting to impact play as much as usual. He is averaging just 42 touches per 90 minutes in 2022, but he has been able to maximize what few chances he’s gotten, assisting four goals on 15 chances created.
The defense has continued its brilliance from a season ago, conceding just eight goals thus far despite allowing the fourth-most possession to opponents. While Nashville permit opponents to bring the ball into their penalty area 16.3 times per match — 10th-most in the league this season — they are allowing just the ninth-fewest shots per box entry and have the most defensive-half pressures of any team in MLS. They have also allowed the second-fewest quality shots. However, they have struggled to defend set pieces, leading the league with five goals conceded from corners or free kicks.
That is good news for the Union, especially defender Kai Wagner. The left back leads the league in both chances created (13) and assists (three) from set pieces this season, for a team that has possession of the ball a league-low 38.6%. It’s also been a helpful way for them to score, considering they have just 12 goals through their first eight matches. Over their last four, they have found the back of the net just five times, and two of those came from goalkeeping errors.
Julian Carranza is in solid form, having scored three of those five goals, and has offset the poor start by fellow Designated Player forward Mikael Uhre. Uhre is still seeking his first goal of the campaign, while attacking midfielder Daniel Gazdag hunts for his first assist. While his four goals lead the team, he’s struggling to provide the forwards with service, completing just 69.8% of his passes.
Nashville will find it difficult to break down Philadelphia’s defense, the only unit to have allowed fewer quality shots this season than their own. They’ve also allowed just 27 shots on goal — the fewest of any team in the league — with keeper Andre Blake allowing just five to get past him. It’s the main reason the Union had a historic start to their campaign, winning their first six matches out of the gate. However, they lost 2-1 to Toronto before drawing 1-1 with Montreal this past weekend, blowing first-half leads in both contests.
Nashville plays 17 of their remaining 26 matches this season at home, and they’ll want to start that run off with a result. They averaged nearly two points per home contest in 2021, while taking just 21 points from a possible 51 on the road. They have gotten off to a terrific start, taking 11 of a possible 24 thus far, and they could have had another point if not for conceding four minutes from time in their 1-0 loss to the Galaxy over the weekend. The Six-Strings are likely to perform better offensively than they have so far this season with their fans in full throat.
Conversely, the argument could be made that Philadelphia, despite their recent slip-up, has been the best team outside of Los Angeles thus far in the season. Andre Blake is in terrific form, and the Union are one of the best ball-winning sides in the league. Their 123 tackles won are just two behind Red Bulls for the most in MLS, and 85 of those have come in the middle third of the pitch.
As much as Nashville will want to open GEODIS Park with a victory, I believe they will be forced to settle for yet another match without suffering defeat. These two sides split their last regular-season series, with the home teams each claiming a 1-0 victory, and the semifinal was 1-1 at the end of regulation before finally being settled on penalties. Toronto showed that the Union defense can be gotten through, while Nashville’s set piece woes leave them vulnerable. Bet on a share of the spoils when it’s all said and done Sunday afternoon.
Prediction: Draw (+220 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
This is such an intriguing matchup to try to break down, due to the matchup of two stout defenses. However, I believe we will see a much more open showdown than fans of either team have been accustomed to this season. Both teams like to sit back and concede possession, but someone has to have it at least half the time. I think the situation and the energy in the building will lend itself to Nashville pushing forward a bit more than usual.
Given how well each team defends, there is heavy juice on the Under 2.5 in this fixture. If you want to play the total, I recommend taking the Asian total over two goals, which at the very least should at least get you a push should only two goals get put on the board. With both teams likely having more transition situations than usual, I will be surprised if multiple goals are not scored.
Prediction: Over 2.0 goals Asian total (-130 at DraftKings)
Best bet
I love both teams to find the back of the net in this contest for a few reasons. First, Philadelphia’s ability to win the ball in midfield should give them transition opportunities against a Nashville defense that isn’t fully set. Secondly, Mukhtar should get many more touches against the Union than he has been accustomed to this campaign, and he could create yet another moment of magic for his home fans.
You cannot discount the first-match energy and how badly Nashville will want to feed off the crowd. Their 838 touches in the final third is by far the lowest in the league, and failing to commit more numbers forward would be a surefire way to drain the energy from the stadium.
It is also important to note they have scored in six of their eight contests this season despite their lack of possession and opportunities. Combine that with the fact that Philadelphia has yet to be kept off the scoresheet in 2022, your best bet is to take both teams to score in what should be a highly-charged contest.
Pick: Both teams to score (+100 at FanDuel)
