The EFL Cup Final takes place at Wembley this Sunday, with Liverpool and Newcastle battling for the trophy.
Liverpool are no strangers to silverware in recent years, while Newcastle are aiming to end a 70-year wait for a major trophy. Unfortunately for Newcastle fans, that wait may continue, as our Liverpool vs. Newcastle predictions favor Liverpool to claim the first of what could be two domestic trophies this season.
Read on for my EFL Cup Final picks ahead of Sunday, March 16, with kickoff at 12:30 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Liverpool vs Newcastle picks and predictions
My best bet: Liverpool moneyline (-152 at TonyBet)
While the EFL Cup may be behind the FA Cup in terms of prestige, both teams would be extremely happy to win it, especially Newcastle, who haven’t won major silverware since the FA Cup in 1955. For Liverpool, this would be a welcome relief after a difficult week that saw them knocked out of the Champions League.
The Reds have had Newcastle's number in recent seasons, winning five of the past six meetings between the teams, and have been the far superior team all season. In fact Newcastle have failed to beat Liverpool in their past 17 attempts, with their last victory over the Merseyside team taking place in December 2015.
Heading into this game there’s a concern that injuries could be a deciding factor. Defensively Liverpool have problems with both right backs, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Conor Bradley. Ibrahima Konate is also a doubt but should play, otherwise the Liverpool back four would be hugely depleted. It’s now likely we see Jarell Quansah at right back, but that’s where Newcastle’s absences really damage them. There’s no Anthony Gordon thanks to suspension and he could have been a huge difference-maker, especially given that he’d be matched up against Quansah, who is the fourth-choice option at RB. If Gordon were playing then Newcastle would stand a far bigger chance but they now lack his speed and ability to stretch the back four. We saw how dangerous PSG’s pace was against Liverpool midweek but Newcastle don’t have that element of speed to trouble them.
Then it’s over to the Liverpool attack to finish the job and win the team that trophy and they have the ability to do so. This is the highest-scoring team in the Premier League and a team who have been free-scoring all season. Luis Diaz and Cody Gakpo are capable of adding goals but it’s Mohamed Salah who controls this team and he’s having an all-timer season, that’s cementing his status as one of the Anfield greats.
Liverpool have had the better of this fixture in recent years and won’t be nervous under the famous Wembley arch, having played here regularly. They should get the job done and win this game against a Newcastle team missing a regular left-back and without Anthony Gordon, who could have punished Liverpool.
Liverpool vs Newcastle same-game parlay (SGP)
Liverpool moneyline
Mo Salah to score
Liverpool team total Over 1.5 goals
The Egyptian is having another incredible season and has 32 goals for his club. We know all about his talent but he’s been Liverpool’s star player this season and time and again has turned up when his team needed him most. He’ll be devastated to have been eliminated from the Champions League in the week but he can get redemption for his team and given that he’s scored two goals already against Newcastle this season, you wouldn’t be shocked to see him on the scoresheet once again.
The final leg of this Same-Game Parlay is for Liverpool to score Over 1.5 goals. This is a Liverpool team who have consistently been scoring in games this year. They lead the Premier League goalscoring charts by a huge margin, with 69 goals in 29 games, given the next highest-scoring team has scored just 55 times. They’ve scored at least two goals in their past six domestic games and have scored at least goals in each of their past six meetings with Newcastle, including putting five past them in just two games this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Liverpool vs Newcastle odds
Liverpool vs Newcastle live odds
 Liverpool |
 Newcastle |
|
|---|---|---|
| -152 | Moneyline | +380 |
| +300 | Draw | +300 |
| Over 2.5 (-205) | Total | Under 2.5 (+170) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Liverpool vs Newcastle opening odds
- Moneyline: Liverpool -152 | Newcastle +380
- Draw: +300
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-205) | Under 2.5 (+170)
Liverpool vs Newcastle side and Over/Under analysis
- Liverpool’s defeat to PSG on Tuesday was their first in seven games and only their fifth across the entire season.
- Newcastle have lost four of their last 10 in all competitions.
- Liverpool have won five of the past six meetings between the teams with the other finishing a 3-3 draw.
- Three of the past four meetings between the teams have had Over 2.5 goals.
- 62.1% of Liverpool’s league games have had Over 2.5 goals, with 60.7% of Newcastle’s hitting that mark too.
How to watch Liverpool vs Newcastle
| Location | Wembley Stadium, Wembley, UK |
| Date | Sunday, 3-16-2025 |
| Time | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Weather | 47F, 10 mph winds, 20% PoP. |
Liverpool vs Newcastle key injuries
Liverpool: Joe Gomez DEF (Out), Conor Bradley RB (Out), Ibrahima Konate CB (Questionable), Trent Alexander-Arnold RB (Questionable).
Newcastle: Sven Botman DEF (Out), Jamaal Lascelles DEF (Out), Lewis Hall LB (Out), Anthony Gordon LW (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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