We have a huge Madrid derby in the Champions League with Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid meeting in the second leg of their Round of 16 clash at the Metropolitano Stadium.
We know that these games can always be relied upon to get fiery. With so much at stake our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid predictions are picking Eduardo Camavinga as somebody likely to be carded.
Be sure to read my Champions League picks for Wednesday, March 12, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid picks and predictions
My best bet:
Eduardo Camavinga to get carded (+200 at TonyBet)
My analysis
On Wednesday we’re being served up the second leg of this season’s Round of 16 Madrid derby between Atletico and Real Madrid.
This fixture always produces fireworks and the first leg was no exception, finishing 2-1 to Real. Now Carlo Ancelotti’s team faces a tough trip across the city to play an Atletico team that have just one home defeat in all competitions this season.
There are injury doubts over Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, Antonio Rudiger, and Jude Bellingham, however, given the importance of the game, we should see all four in the lineup.
This is a heated rivalry between two clubs who hate each other. In the past six meetings between the teams, we’ve seen 27 yellow cards and one red card. Things generally get more heated at the Metropolitano Stadium too, with 38 yellows and two red cards in the past six meetings between the teams at Atletico’s home ground. Add in the fact that the winner will seal a spot in the Champions League quarterfinal and you can see that tempers could boil over. The game is being officiated by Simon Marciniak, who has only taken charge of six games in Europe this season, and given out 17 yellows and two red cards.
Of all the players on the field, it’s Camavinga who feels like the most reliable wager to get a card. Firstly, he was rested at the weekend alongside Ferland Mendy and Federico Valverde, meaning all three should be in line to start.
Then there’s Camavinga’s play itself. The Frenchman has been a tough tackler throughout his career and has consistently found himself getting booked in the biggest moments for Real Madrid. This season he’s been in and out of the team, which has led to his booking numbers not being quite as bad as previous years.
He only has two yellow cards in seven Champions League appearances this season but given his actual playing time in those games, it works out as a card every other 90 minutes played. He ranks second in fouls committed per 90 minutes played for Real Madrid in both La Liga and the Champions League. Committing 1.85 fouls per 90 minutes played domestically and 2.31 times per 90 minutes in Europe.
He can be hot-headed occasionally but more than his temper, it’s his mentality in trying to win some duals in which he shouldn’t even try. He’s going to be at the heart of this Real midfield and trying to deal with an Atletico team that will be pushing to get back into this tie.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid same-game parlay (SGP)
Eduardo Camavinga to get carded
Javi Galan to get carded
Kylian Mbappe to score
We’re starting with our best bet of Camavinga to get booked and then adding two more legs, the first of which is another booking, this time for Atletico’s Javi Galan. Galan was up against Rodrygo in the last game and had a poor performance.
He’s only had one booking in the Champions League this season but has seven yellows in just 17 La Liga games and is always in the mix when it comes to getting carded. Domestically he’s committing 2.19 fouls per 90 minutes played, more than anybody else on the Atletico roster, and is a liability at times.
Finally, we will back Mbappe to find the back of the net.
After a slow start to life in Madrid he’s finally showcasing why he’s the most feared attacker on the planet and has already racked up 28 goals for his club this season, including seven in this competition alone. He found the back of the net at the weekend and has a great chance to score again on Wednesday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid odds
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid live odds
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid opening odds
- Moneyline: Atletico Madrid +160 | Real Madrid +170
- Draw: +254
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-150) | Under 2.5 (+127)
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid side and Over/Under analysis
- Real Madrid won the first leg between the teams 2-1.
- Atletico have now lost two games in a row, but have only one defeat at home in all competitions this season.
- Real Madrid have lost just one of their past 10 games in all competitions.
- Real have won just one of the past six meetings between these teams at the Metropolitano, with Atletico winning three.
- Nine of Real Madrid’s 11 Champions League games this season have had Over 2.5 goals.
How to watch Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
| Location | Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid, ES |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Time | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Weather | 48F, 9 mph winds, 35% PoP. |
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid key injuries
Atletico Madrid: Koke CM (Questionable).
Real Madrid: Dani Carvajal RB (Out), Eder Militao CB (Out), Dani Ceballos MID (Out), Jesus Vallejo CB (Questionable), Jude Bellingham CM (Questionable), Antonio Rudiger CB (Questionable), Rodrygo FWR (Questionable), Vinicius Junior FWR (Questionable).
Not intended for use in MA.
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