One of North America's best soccer stadiums will host Sunday's national TV game, as Orlando City head to the Pacific Northwest to face the Portland Timbers at beautiful Providence Park.
It was there Portland lost the MLS Cup final just a few short months ago and it has started the new year in middling form, with five points from four games. While Orlando has gotten off to a better start, with seven points through the first month, it's the Timbers who are -110 MLS betting favorites on Sunday.
Here are our free MLS picks and predictions for the Portland Timbers vs. Orlando City, with kickoff on March 27.
Portland Timbers vs Orlando City match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLS odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Portland Timbers vs Orlando City betting tips
Predictions made on 3/25/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Portland Timbers vs Orlando City game info
• Location: Providence Park, Portland, OR
• Date: Sunday, March 27, 2022
• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Portland Timbers vs Orlando City betting preview
Weather
An overcast afternoon is expected in Portland on Sunday but the rain should hold off, with just a 2% chance of rain. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be around 60 degrees Fahrenheit.
Portland Timbers vs Orlando City predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
The Timbers' results through four games — a win, two draws, and a loss — are uninspiring but on a game-by-game basis, it has been a fairly strong first month in tough circumstances.
Portland began the year with a 2-2 draw against the Revolution, who set the league record for most points just last season. That draw saw the Timbers come back from behind twice and ultimately were unlucky to not win, vastly out-creating New England in expected goals, 2.5 to 0.8, and totaling 24 shot-creating actions to the Revs' 18.
The Timbers then went on the road to face LAFC, arguably the league's best team this season, and gutted out a 1-1 draw in which they led early and then clung to the lead after a red card for 30 minutes before conceding the equalizer in injury time. Portland's first win of the season followed, roundly outplaying Austin FC in a 1-0 win. Most impressive in that three points was the clean sheet, halting an Austin attack that had scored five goals in each of its first two games.
It came undone a little for the Timbers last weekend, a 4-1 loss to FC Dallas, but that was well and truly a quicksand game. Rising USMNT star and FC Dallas striker Jesus Ferreira scored a hat trick in 10 minutes, from the 26th to 36th minute, but finished the game with just 0.9 xG (while Dallas just finished with 1.5 xG as a team).
All told, Portland's one of 12 teams in MLS with a positive xG difference per 90 so far, after a tricky run of games to start. Those 12 teams don't include Orlando, who really have just one good result — a win over the Galaxy — in four games. Even that saw L.A. double Orlando's xG, 1.4 to 0.7, while it has otherwise beaten a terrible (and 10-man) Montreal team, drawn Chicago, and lost to also terrible FC Cincinnati.
Portland has been, on balance, a better team than Orlando so far this season. Add in the excellent home atmosphere of Providence Park, where the Timbers took 35 of a possible 51 points last year (the third-best home return in the league), and we have a second Portland win in the young season.
Prediction: Timbers (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Among Orlando's underwhelming numbers is an Eastern Conference-low, and the fourth-fewest in MLS, 3.7 expected goals. Also averaging the seventh-fewest shot-creating action per 90 (15.0), Orlando simply hasn't created quality chances at a high rate by any stretch.
It doesn't have a single player with multiple goals yet this year while nobody has topped 1.0 xG, either. Against a tough defensive team in a brutally hard road environment, it's going to be a longshot for Orlando to break the Timbers down.
For its part, Portland shouldn't be counted on to top the 2.5 goal total on its own either. The Timbers have attacked positively early in the season but it has still been a modest return, as they've averaged 1.25 goals, 1.3 xG, and 19.5 shot-creating actions per 90 through four games.
A 1-0 or 2-0 win seems most likely and as such, we're taking the Under.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (-101)
Best bet
We outlined it in our side analysis but through four games, it's pretty easy to point at the Timbers as being considerably better than Orlando. The opponents faced have been more difficult and yet Portland's underlying numbers still back that notion up, with it more impressive in attack and more or less on par defensively, the Timbers' 10-minute nap against FC Dallas aside.
At -110 for a Timbers win, in Portland, it makes plenty of sense as our best bet. The Timbers have routinely been excellent at home, backed by arguably the league's best and most vocal fans. It's a hostile environment for any opponent but add in the logistics of Orlando's travel and it's even worse for Sunday's visitors with the cross-country trip as long as it gets in MLS.
Since joining MLS in 2015, Orlando's made the trip to the Pacific Northwest to face Portland, Seattle, or Vancouver on eight occasions. Their record in those games is an ugly 1-3-4, taking 6 points from a possible 24 (despite the Whitecaps being a bottom-feeder for most of Orlando's MLS existence).
It's just a brutal trip in a league that doesn't yet use charter flights on a weekly basis and it puts Orlando in a spot that the Timbers will take advantage of.
Prediction: Timbers (-110)
