The latest edition of MLS Rivalry Week saves one of the best weekend tilts for last, as Sunday night sees the California Clasico resume between LA Galaxy and the San Jose Earthquakes.
It’s been a horrific start to the campaign for the Galaxy, tied with Sporting KC for the fewest points in the league thus far. Still, a win over their rivals would be a big boost to their spirits, especially considering the Earthquakes currently sit in fourth in the West and many wonder if they have the requisite quality to maintain a spot that high up the table.
With key players returning to fitness for the Galaxy, could this be the catalyst for a bit of a resurgence for a woefully underperforming club? Or will the Earthquakes continue to defy the pundits at the cost of their bitter rivals in the only MLS match on Mother's Day?
We discuss that and more in our LA Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes free betting picks for Sunday, May 14.
San Jose Earthquakes vs LA Galaxy best odds
San Jose Earthquakes vs LA Galaxy picks and predictions
It’s been a very rough open to the campaign for an LA Galaxy squad that — at the very least — was expected to make the playoffs at the very least. Only three teams have conceded more than their 17 goals, and only three teams have scored fewer than their eight goals.
Much of their issues at the offensive end have simply come from an unexplainable lack of finishing. They enter the weekend with the second-worst goals below expected mark, in part because they’ve manufactured the most key passes in the league.
Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez shoulders much of the blame, as the star striker has been poor this season. While missing time due to injury, he’s also managed just one goal and one assist through five appearances. It’s also not helped that Douglas Costa has started just one match thus far.
But the Galaxy looked much improved mid-week when they eliminated Seattle from the U.S. Open Cup, with substitute Memo Rodriguez scoring a brace in a 3-1 win. Despite that Seattle side being made up of reserves, it could be the confidence boost the Galaxy need heading into their rivalry match.
For all their success this season, San Jose has just a +1 goal differential through their first 11 matches. That’s in large part because they can’t figure out how to stop conceding goals away from home.
Through six matches in all competitions, they’ve yet to pick up a road victory, losing four times and conceding in every match. The 11 goals conceded away in league play is in stark contrast with the three they’ve allowed at home through six matches, having kept three clean sheets.
Four of San Jose’s five matches away from home have seen both teams score and the total go Over the standard 2.5-goal mark. Only their St. Louis match saw them fail to score, which can be forgiven seeing as STL has allowed just five goals at home through five.
As for the Galaxy, they also have seen the Over hit in four of their six matches in all competitions, with both teams finding the back of the net in all but one of those contests. And when these two face off, fireworks tend to ensue. The last four meetings have featured three or more goals, with neither team keeping a clean sheet.
That’s why we’re keeping it simple with our best bet for this version of the California Clasico. Take the prebuilt game parlay at DraftKings, which pays significantly better at -120 than you’ll find anywhere else.
My best bet: BTTS + Over 2.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
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San Jose Earthquakes vs LA Galaxy side analysis
The Galaxy have just two wins so far in 2023, with only one coming at home through five MLS matches. They’ve kept just one clean sheet, and have been outscored 9-4 in their three home defeats.
They'll likely be without Costa yet again, while Jonathan Bond should be back in goal after playing in the U.S. Open Cup match in his return from injury. Chris Mavinga is also a doubt.
San Jose has yet to get a win away from home, having claimed just two points of a possible 15. They did beat LAFC at home 2-1 last weekend but haven’t won two straight since the opening three weeks of the campaign. The Earthquakes won’t have the services of Nathan or Carlos Akapo, but Niko Tsakiris could be available off the bench.
Given San Jose’s dreadful away form, it makes sense that the Galaxy are -125 favorites on the 3-way moneyline. That said, San Jose has actually won three of the last four meetings at Dignity Health Sports Park, and a double chance of -115 isn’t terribly priced — especially when you consider how well Cristian Espinoza is scoring and the defense he’ll see on Sunday.
San Jose Earthquakes vs LA Galaxy Over/Under analysis
Considering the numbers we gave out earlier regarding goals and these leaky defenses, it comes as no surprise the total of 2.5 is juiced massively. Most books will require you to lay in the -165 to -175 range if you want to partake, and for good reason.
LA Galaxy have seen a combined 16 goals in their five home matches in league play, and 20 in six matches across all competitions. The visitors haven’t fared much differently, with their five away fixtures in MLS having seen 16 goals as well with their opponents scoring 11 of those.
The last six meetings hosted by the Galaxy have featured five matches going Over the total, with a combined 22 goals scored. Their last six meetings overall have seen five Overs as well, with a total of 22 goals as well. The two meetings last season were both 3-2 final scorelines.
San Jose Earthquakes vs LA Galaxy game info
| Location: | Stubhub Center, San Jose, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, May 14, 2023 |
| Time: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Spectrum SportsNet, ESPN+ |
San Jose Earthquakes vs LA Galaxy key injuries
San Jose Earthquakes: Carlos Akapo D (Out), Nathan D (Out).
LA Galaxy: Chris Mavinga D (Out), Douglas Costa F (Doubtful), Sega Coulibaly D (Questionable).
San Jose Earthquakes vs LA Galaxy weather
It’ll be a beautiful sunny California day on Sunday, with plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the low-70s at kickoff. There’s no chance of rain for the match, and a light breeze will have no bearing on proceedings.
