St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy Picks and Predictions: LA Stumbles In Tough Road Tilt

Sunday afternoon will see two MLS sides at opposite ends of the Western Conference do battle, as St Louis City plays host to the LA Galaxy.

With the season approaching the midway point, the hosts are having a terrific first season in the league. They have the best goal differential in the league, and have made CityPark a fortress. Into that fortress come the Galaxy, as the long-time power has fallen on very hard times. With just 12 points from 15 matches, they must respond after being dumped out of the US Open Cup and try to find a cure for their goal-scoring woes.

Will St Louis steamroll another side at home, or is this the match where the Galaxy finally start to figure things out? We discuss that and more in our St Louis City vs. LA Galaxy betting picks and predictions for Sunday, June 11. 

St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy best odds

St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy picks and predictions

Expansion teams aren’t typically supposed to be this dominant, even at home. But despite having played just 15 matches while many sides have played 16 or more, St Louis leads MLS with 32 goals scored as they’ve taken 28 of a possible 45 points.

They’ll be happy to be back home, though. Only 10 of their 28 tallies have come away from CityPark this season, and their 2-0 defeat on Tuesday was their fourth defeat in five away fixtures with three of those matches seeing them shut out.

Scoring hasn’t been an issue in any way at home for the club. In fact, seven of their nine home tilts thus far in all competitions have seen them score three or more goals. The only two matches where they didn’t reach that mark are unsurprisingly their only two defeats at home, as well.

Those two defeats have something else in common — they’re the only two instances of St Louis’ nine home matches where the home side failed to score in the first half. Going a step further, they also happen to be the only ones where St Louis wasn’t in front at the intermission. In fact, only one visiting team has even scored in the first half at CityPark this season, and that was when Charlotte opened the scoring in the first match of the campaign.

Like Charlotte, LA Galaxy scored before halftime of their first away match of the season. That’s only happened once for them since, and that came by way of a 45th-minute penalty in their 3-2 win at Real Salt Lake last weekend. Their return visit to Salt Lake City on Tuesday night was more of the same, as they fell behind 2-0 before the break and were eliminated from the Open Cup by an identical 3-2 scoreline. But the defeat wasn’t the only bad news for the Galaxy, as striker Chicharito Hernandez tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season. 

St Louis is favored to win the match, and the money line is a good bet. They’re destroying teams at home, and they’re taking on a side that simply looked scared at times and now must replace their star forward. It would be easy to roll with that pick and call it a day.

But I’m looking for a bit more of a payday for my best bet, and I believe the first half money line is the way to go. The Galaxy have been outscored 7-2 in all competitions before halftime this season, and they’ve looked bad at both ends of the pitch. If things are going to go to script, then I expect LA Galaxy to be down early to a St Louis team that will swarm them and force them into mistakes early and often. 

My best bet: St Louis City first-half moneyline (+160 at bet365)

St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy side analysis

While you can still get St Louis at even money a few places, most books have them as clear favorites on the 3-way money line. Oddly, the draw is the least favored of the three outcomes, I assume in part because they’ve yet to draw at home and have just one draw all season. 

St Louis has won six of their eight home matches in league play, outscoring their opponents 22-6 in the process. Eduard Lowen is one of three players with five goals to lead the team in scoring, and the midfielder has found the back of the net in his last three home matches. He may need to pick up some of the slack with Joao Klauss and his five goals possibly missing out due to a quad injury. Defender Joakim Nilsson will miss the match, while midfielder Njabulo Blom will be out a few weeks as well.

The Galaxy will be without defender Sega Coulibaly and midfielder Memo Rodriguez, but it’s the loss of Chicharito that’s most concerning. Even though his numbers this season haven’t been what they were, his presence offered a threat that teams had to respect. With just one away win in eight away fixtures in league play, they’ll have to hope they get a bump from having a new look on the pitch. But that lone win came against a Real Salt Lake side with just two wins in eight home matches.

Every time St Louis has lost a game this season, it’s been paired with another loss or two. They’ll hope to break that trend here and avoid their third losing streak of the season, and I don’t think the Galaxy are going to put up much of a fight in this one. 

St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy Over/Under analysis

Those wanting to play the total in this one will either need to think big, or look for an alternate line. The Over is juiced to -140 or higher, which is expected considering LA Galaxy’s poor defensive record combined with St Louis’ scoring prowess. 

Of St Louis’ nine home matches in all competitions, only one has failed to reach the three-goal mark. Five of them have even gone to four or more goals. St Louis themselves have found the back of the net three or more times in seven of those outings. 

Meanwhile, five of LA’s 10 away matches in all competitions have gone Over, including three of the last four.  But the Galaxy have allowed their opponent to score multiple goals in six of their last seven away fixtures in all competitions, the outlier being against cross-town rivals LAFC. 

That’s why the better play might be to look at St Louis to score two or more. The Over 1.5 team total is less juiced, as low as -118 at FanDuel, and helps you avoid some of that juice. The other option is to look at the Over 3.5, which is priced quite well at close to +200. 

St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy game info

St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy key injuries

St. Louis City SC: Joakim Nilsson D (Out), Joao Klauss F (Doubtful).
LA Galaxy: Chicharito Hernandez F (Out), Sega Coulibaly D (Out), Memo Rodriguez M (Out). 

St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy weather

It’ll be a rainy day in St Louis on Sunday. Temperatures at kickoff will be in the mid-70s, but rain is forecast for the entire morning and well into the evening. 

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