It's all coming up Kyle Larson as we hit the NASCAR season's home stretch. Now into the Round of 8, Larson won last weekend to catapult himself into the Championship 4 and the overall NASCAR Cup Series odds lead. He also sits as a heavy chalk for this weekend's 4EVER 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
He's been among the favorites all season long, and he could be saving his best for last. Is another Larson win likely? Or are there better value plays further down the board?
We scan the field and bring you the 4EVER 400 odds, along with the best NASCAR betting picks for this Homestead playoff race.
Odds to win 2023 4EVER 400
| Driver |  |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +250 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +650 |
| William Byron | +650 |
| Ryan Blaney | +650 |
| Tyler Reddick | +700 |
| Denny Hamlin | +850 |
| Christopher Bell | +1,600 |
| Bubba Wallace | +1,700 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1,800 |
| Kevin Harvick | +1,800 |
| Ross Chastain | +1,900 |
| Kyle Busch | +1,900 |
| Chris Buescher | +2,500 |
| Joey Logano | +2,800 |
| Chase Elliott | +3,500 |
| Alex Bowman | +4,500 |
| Ty Gibbs | +5,000 |
| Erik Jones | +10,000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +10,000 |
| Austin Cindric | +13,000 |
Odds as of October 22, 2023.
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4EVER 400 field
Kyle Larson won last weekend's South Point 400 to spin himself into the points lead. As the defending champ in this race, he, likewise, sits as a favorite — at the very conservative price of +250.
Unfortunately for Larson at those confident odds, the top of the board is littered with past Homestead winners, who just happen to be the same guys he's battling for the Cup Series crown with.
William Byron won here in spring 2021, while Denny Hamlin took the 2020 stop among three past Miami wins. Hell, even Martin Truex Jr. — the fourth guy currently slotted for the Championship 4 —won here back in 2017.
Tyler Reddick has shown potential on this track, slotted as the second choice among that upper tier. After which, the pricing falls somewhat steeply to the duo of Christopher Bell and Kyle Busch, the former of whom is just on the cusp of the playoff bubble.
Odds tail off fairly sharply into the bottom half of the field — accounted for by a crowded Top 5 all at fairly short odds. As we dial in for the stretch run, these races become more and more about the Cup Series contenders.
4EVER 400 picks and predictions
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Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, October 19, 2023.
4EVER 400 pre-qualifying favorites
Tyler Reddick (+500)
This is his race. He was fourth in 2020 and runner-up in 2021. While he exited early last year for his first result worse than fourth at Homestead, he's finished second in each of the last two Southern 500s.
Denny Hamlin (+700)
He swept both stages and the win in 2020 and was 11th and seventh the last two years. He's had great cars at Darlington in each of the last two years as well, and if not for a loose wheel, was likely to win the Southern 500.
William Byron (+750)
Byron was in the Top 10 in 2020, won in 2021, and 12th last year despite finishing third in the second stage. He was first and fourth in Darlington this year, too.
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4EVER 400 sleepers
Kyle Busch (+1,400)
He has six Top-6 finishes in his last eight starts at Homestead including four in the top four. He was 10th and ninth the last two years. He was seventh and 11th this year in Darlington and coming into the weekend on the heels of two straight third-place finishes.
Brad Keselowski (+2,000)
Fifth last year and fourth and sixth at Darlington this year. He led 38 laps and finished in the Top-5 last Sunday in Vegas.
Chris Buescher (+2,200)
Remember he won Stage 1 in 2021 including 57 laps led. However, contact on a second stage restart ruined his handling, which dropped him to outside the Top 15. Buescher is at his best on aged tracks and there’s no reason to believe he can’t win on Sunday, especially with the season that he's having.
4EVER 400 fades
Martin Truex Jr. (+550)
Three Top 2s in his last five Homestead tries and a car capable of winning last year before a bad pit stop. But, he still just looks off. They’re not executing on a race-winning caliber and last week’s pit call confirms that fact. He needs a Top-5 before I’m ready to risk these type of odds for an outright race win.
Christopher Bell (+1,400)
He has one Top-10 finish in three Homestead Cup tries (11th last year) and was also sixth, fifth, 14th, and 23rd respectively in his last four Darlington starts. Bell mentioned recently that this track has been a struggle over the years, which is why he showed so much emotion in not winning last week in Las Vegas to lock himself into the Championship 4.
Chase Elliott (+1,800)
I don’t like him at this number. He does have three Top 7s in his last five Homestead starts, but he’s also winless here and Darlington. He was fifth and 36th this past year at Darlington and 21st the last time out at Homestead.
4EVER 400 prop pick
Kyle Busch vs. Christopher Bell
With Busch coring six Top-6 finishes in his last eight here, including four in the Top-4, while Bell has just one Top-10 finish and was 11th a year ago. With both drivers being -115, I like Busch in this head-to-head matchup to beat Bell across the finish line on Sunday.
Pick: Busch (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Homestead Miami Speedway track analysis
Most similar to Darlington in the sense that both are tracks with high tire wear, and see similar stats with the same drivers fighting for wins at both. Typically, if someone is good one year at Darlington, they’re also good at Homestead and vice versa.
With that said, Ford wasn’t very strong this past year at Darlington and has just one win in the last 12 years here. They also failed to lead a single lap last year and led only 40 of 267 laps on an intermediate track last weekend.
The ones to watch are certainly the Toyota (+135 win outright) drivers. Toyota has won two of the last four Homestead races including four of the last six and five of the last eight. In saying that, Chevrolet won this race a year ago and was 2-for-2 at Darlington this year, with all three combined wins coming from Hendrick Motorsports. In fact, HMS has won two of the last three here.
4EVER 400 trends
- Eight of the last 10 winners came from the Top 5 of the starting lineup.
- The last 10 races have each been won by nine different drivers — Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon, Erik Jones, Bubba Wallace, Chris Buescher, Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, and Joey Logano.
