Christopher Bell shocked the racing world at COTA last week by picking up a victory that many betting analysts had already handed to Shane van Gisbergen. Of course, the betting public won't overlook him again on Sunday afternoon. You can bet your bottom dollar on that.
However, as the NASCAR Cup Series drivers reunite with the unique layout of Phoenix Raceway in the 2025 Shriners Children’s 500, we're not buying the hype the oddsmakers are trying to generate around Bell.
Instead, when the green flag flies Sunday, March 9 on FOX at 3:30 pm ET, we'll be looking to cash in on another Toyota driver who's been uncharacteristically flying under the radar.
Read along for my free betting picks, and let me explain why backing Denny Hamlin is the wise guy's move for Week 4 of the NASCAR Cup Series season.
Shriners Children’s 500 prop picks
- Top 5 finish: Denny Hamlin (+180 at bet365)
- Top 3 finish: Kyle Larson (+180 at bet365)
- Top Ford: Joey Logano (+240 at bet365)
Shriners Children’s 500 props and best bets
Top 5 finish: Denny Hamlin (+180 at bet365)
Denny Hamlin has had an unremarkable start to his 2025 campaign, finishing no better than sixth place. Even in that Top-10 performance at Atlanta Motor Speedway, he was kind of lucky to be there. Hamlin hadn't "earned" his spot, he was just the beneficiary of some stuff happening around him.
As you could imagine, the question of whether Hamlin should push the panic button has already been raised. Alarmnists be damned, let's pump the brakes on that concern.
Denny Hamlin is like the Joey Gallo of NASCAR. When he's hot, look out, he's a home-run machine! When he's not, ah well, you Yankees fans know how that one goes.
Nevertheless, Hamlin has been a force to be reckoned with at Phoenix Raceway, and in our case, money in the bank. He's secured two wins and has an impressive record of 16 Top 5s and 22 Top 10s.
Hamlin's average starting position of 10.82 at Phoenix Raceway is the second-best among active drivers. If you key in on his average finishing position with the NextGen car, it gets slightly better at 9.98.
Not forgetting to mention, he typically qualifies well, having captured three poles at this specific track throughout the years.
If there were ever a good time for the driver of the No. 11 Toyota car to break out of his rut, it would be this weekend at Phoenix Raceway.
Yes, I know +180 feels like one hell of a trap, but remember, this number has been shaped by the start of his 2025 season. If Hamlin had a few Top-10 finishes under his belt, this gets priced closer to even money.
Top 3 finish: Kyle Larson (+180 at bet365)
Speaking of underperforming drivers, Kyle Larson's has started the season awfully shaky in 2025, minus his third-place finish at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Mind you, some of that was being in the wrong place at the wrong time. He's had his flashes of brilliance in each race.
Much like Hamlin, Larson flourishes at Phoenix Raceway. With 21 starts in his career, Larson has managed to secure one win, which was notably the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship race.
The stats don't lie as Larson has consistently performed well, with nine Top 5 and 13 Top 10 finishes at Phoenix. His average starting position is a strong 6.7, and he boasts an average finish of 11.0, which is the third-best among active drivers.
Is it a lot to ask of Larson to finish in the Top 3? Yeah, I won't sugarcoat it, that's a tall task. In this case, though, the price is right at +180 to roll the dice.
Top Ford: Joey Logano (+240 at bet365)
There's no way Joey Logano should be this high of a price. I understand the oddsmakers love Ryan Blaney's chances this weekend and giving out anything better than -110 is one heck of a risk, but c'mon man, this ain't it.
Luckily for us bettors, we're getting some value, despite what some "sharps" might say.
For context: Logano has four wins at Phoenix, including two since 2022, and three of those came after the track's 2018 reconfiguration. He’s also tied with Jimmie Johnson for the second-most wins at Phoenix among active drivers, trailing only Kevin Harvick.
Let’s also not forget, he just won the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship race at this very track, leading 107 laps in a dominant performance.
Once again, how is he priced at +240 to be the best Ford driver? Logano's price should be no higher than +160, and that's being conservative.
Let's lock it in.
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