The Cup Series circuit swerves into Richmond this weekend for the Toyota Owners 400, as we continue to get some sense of what's been a very peculiar season so far, with long shots winning left and right and perennial powerhouses failing to make their marks.
Get the NASCAR betting low-down with our Toyota Owners 400 picks and predictions, getting underway at 3:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, April 3.
You can also check out the full Toyota Owners 400 odds breakdown.
Toyota Owners 400 best bets
Picks made on 3/31/22 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick above to jump to the full analysis.
Toyota Owners 400 favorites
Martin Truex Jr. (+1,000) *BEST BET
He has to be the overall favorite, right? Truex swept both Richmond races in 2019 and was runner-up in 2020. He also won the fall race last year and was fifth in the spring. He’s coming into the weekend with three Top 8s in the last four weeks. 11 of his first 19 wins were on intermediate tracks.
But, over his last 11 wins, eight have come on tracks 1-mile in length or shorter, including each of his last six. In fact, three of those last eight came at the Richmond Raceway.
Denny Hamlin (+1,200)
He was runner-up in both races last year, including leading 207 laps in the spring and 197 in the fall. Hamlin has nine Top-6 finishes in his last 11 Richmond starts.
Ross Chastain (+1,200)
Throw past stats out here based on his season thus far. He has four straight Top-3 finishes, including coming off of two runner-ups, then a win last week.
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Toyota Owners 400 long-shot picks
Christopher Bell (+1,400) *BEST BET
He was fourth and third, respectively, last year. He enters off of a third-place finish last weekend.
Tyler Reddick (+1,200)
His teammate runs well in Richmond and here Reddick was with an 11th-place result on this very race track in 2020. Reddick also had three straight Top-10 finishes in his NXS career at Richmond as well, but was only 20th and 15th last year. I still have him as a sleeper since he’s never won a Cup race in 80 starts.
Reddick has had race-winning cars in every race this season. He swept both stages in Fontana (90 laps led), finished 7th in Vegas, 3rd in Phoenix and restarted in overtime with the lead in COTA. We’ve had three first-time winners in 2022, so why not a fourth?
Austin Dillon (+4,000)
He surprised everyone in 2020 with a fourth-place run at Richmond, but, he’s also had three Top-6 results in his last six tries there overall, and was 10th in April of last year and 11th in the Fall.
Toyota Owners 400 fades
Kyle Larson (+900)
Weird saying this, but Richmond hasn’t been a kind track to Larson lately. For his odds this week, I’d fade him. He’s not had a Top-5 finish in his last six Richmond starts, including 18th in April of last year and sixth in the playoff race. Also, Larson has finished 29th or worse in four of six races run in 2022.
William Byron (+1,100)
He’s never had a Top 5 and has never led a lap in any of his eight Richmond starts. I’d steer clear for these odds.
Toyota Owners 400 matchup pick
Kyle Larson (-120) vs. Martin Truex Jr. (-110)
Larson has no Top 5s in any of his last six Richmond starts. His last three finishes on the season have been 34th, 30th and 29th, respectively. Truex, meanwhile, has four Top 2s in his last five Richmond starts and fifth in the other. He also has three Top 8s in the last four weeks on the season.
He’s crossed the finish line before Larson in the last five Richmond races and three of the last four races on the season.
PICK: Truex Jr. (-110)
Toyota Owners 400 preview
This is what you’d call a get-right race for Joe Gibbs Racing right? They’ve won 8 of the last 12 races in Richmond and need a result as badly as anyone else. They’re 0-for-6 to start 2022 off and haven’t won at all in the last 12 races, including just three wins in the last 24 in general.
But, can you just flip a switch that quickly?
I think so. There’s plenty of evidence above based on JGR’s results in Richmond.
The thing is, you get their drivers for great odds at the moment. That could change after qualifying in the sense that Bell has three Top-7 qualifying efforts in the last 4 weeks.
Hamlin has four Top 8s in his last five qualifying tries, with Busch having five of his seven races see him come from the Top 6 rows. Truex Jr.’s the only one without a solid qualifying effort but nine of his last 10 in Richmond had him starting in the Top 4 rows. Hamlin’s started in the Top 4 rows in seven of his last eight at Richmond while Busch has a Top-10 start in four of the last five and Bell in two of three.
Those odds could really drop on Saturday night for these four. However, Vegas doesn’t necessarily trust them, given that they’re all behind the Hendrick Motorsports duo of Kyle Larson (9-1) and Chase Elliott (9-1) in odds at this moment.
Last year, Truex Jr. was listed as the favorite at 4-1. Hamlin was 6-1. They’re 10-1 and 12-1, respectively, now.
Plus, do you really trust HMS? While they’ve been the most dominant team in NASCAR the last couple of years with two championships to go along with three wins in the last five weeks — as well as eight of the last 11 overall if you go back to last year — they have just one win in the last 25 Richmond races.
Alex Bowman won last spring, but it was more of a fluke rather than on merit. The race that day was a JGR/Penske battle that saw a late caution swing the race in Bowman’s favor.
Chase Elliott did finish fifth last year and was second and fourth, respectively, in 2018, but he’s also been outside of the Top 10 in seven of his other nine Richmond starts and has just one Top 5 all year. He’s also not won on an oval since Phoenix (2020).
William Byron has never scored a Top 5 or even led a lap at Richmond before and the last spring race was his first Top 10 at that. As mentioned, Larson has no Top 5s in his last six starts there.
Plus, when HMS hasn’t been contending for wins this season, they’ve not been on their games. Larson has four finishes of 29th or worse. Bowman has two Top 5s and two results of 24th or worse. Byron has two Top 5s but three finishes of 18th or worse, including two outside the Top 30.
Toyota Owners 400 key stat
The last 12 Cup race winners were all under the age of 30.
Toyota Owners 400 betting trend to watch
All six races this season has seen the race winner finish in the Top 10 of at least one stage every time. In fact, three of the last five weeks have seen the eventual winner score stage points in both stages throughout the race. Furthermore, four of the last five weeks have seen the race winner finish in the Top 5 of the initial stage, with three of the last four weeks seeing the winner either first or second.
How does this apply to Richmond?
· Three of the last five Richmond races saw the eventual winner finish in the Top 2 of the second stage each time.
· In 2018, Truex Jr. swept both stages in the playoff race but didn’t win. Same for Joey Logano in the spring race that year. Same for Denny Hamlin in April of last year. Twice now this season, someone has swept both stages (Daytona and Fontana) but didn’t win the race. It’s happened three times in five Richmond rces, so keep note of that if someone does it Sunday.
· In 2017, the winner was 10th in both stages in the spring race and second and sixth, respectively, in the Fall. Kyle Busch’s Fall race win in 2018 was the only time that a driver won the race and didn’t finish in the points for any stage since the stage inception in 2017.
So, how does this all fit? The race winner is likely to be someone who scored stage points in both stages. If you can find someone to finish in the Top 5 of the first stage and in the Top 10 of the second, and if they’re in the Top 2 of the second stage at that, there’s your winner. Throw money their way then.
