YellaWood 500: Talladega Picks, Odds & Race Preview

In a season where several drivers have taken the pole position in the NASCAR Cup Series odds, William Byron is certainly making it tough to count him out among the bigger-name favorites.

As the circuit rolls into Talladega for the YellaWood 500, Byron is coming off his NASCAR-leading sixth win of the season. As one of the few playoff favorites near the top of this week's odds board, he's got a good chance to put more distance between himself and the rest of the field.

Will Byron reign again, or will another driver — perhaps favorite Brad Keselowski — punch their ticket to the next round? Find out as we break down the YellaWood 500 odds and serve up our best NASCAR betting picks.

Odds to win 2023 YellaWood 500

Driver
Brad Keselowski	+1,100	+1,100
Ryan Blaney	+1,200	+1,100
Joey Logano	+1,200	+1,600
Chris Buescher	+1,300	+1,200
William Byron	+1,400	+1,400
Chase Elliott	+1,400	+1,400
Bubba Wallace	+1,400	+1,400
Denny Hamlin	+1,600	+1,600
Kyle Busch	+1,800	+1,800
Ross Chastain	+2,000	+2,000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	+2,000	+2,000
Kyle Larson	+2,000	+2,000
Austin Cindric	+2,000	+2,000
Aric Almirola	+2,000	+2,000
Christopher Bell	+2,200	+2,200
Erik Jones	+2,500	+3,200
Daniel Suarez	+2,500	+2,800
Tyler Reddick	+2,800	+2,800
Ty Gibbs	+2,800	+2,800
Michael McDowell	+2,800	+2,800

Odds as of September 26, 2023.

YellaWood 500 field

As this is a superspeedway race, bettors will notice a far flatter and higher-variance odds board than the typical NASCAR track. With Talladega producing a wide range of potential outcomes and many a surprise winner, we're finding the shortest odds at +1,100 — roughly twice that of typical oval-esque tracks.

Most will also be surprised to see Brad Keselowski somewhat anomalously sitting as the favorite. While he's certainly not one of the more prolific drivers on today's circuit, Keselowski's a six-time Talladega winner (most recently spring 2021, his last NASCAR victory) who has reeled off a slew of Top-10 finishes down the stretch of this season to keep himself in the playoff hunt. 

Priced alongside him (or slightly behind) are Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano, who have both seen success at Talladega. Blaney took back-to-back checkered flags here in 2019/20, while Logano's won three times since 2015. Both are typically strong superspeedway drivers, and while Logano's been eliminated from the postseason (promising us a new Cup Series champ), Blaney's sense of urgency on the playoff bubble could provide some extra motivation.

Behind them are a glut of drivers at +1,400, including playoff leader William Byron, coming off his sixth win of the season, and with five Top-10 finishes in the past six races. 

YellaWood 500 picks and predictions

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Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, September 24, 2023.

YellaWood 500 pre-qualifying favorites

Brad Keselowski (+1,100)

You always go with Brad for a superspeedway race. Even though he was 23rd and 24th, respectively, last year, He was fifth in the spring, second in last month’s Coke Zero Sugar 400, and has won six times at Talladega, including the spring of 2021. He was also runner-up that fall too. Keselowski has the most superspeedway points (188) and second most laps led (116) on these tracks this season, with finishes of second, fifth, sixth, and second in the last four. On the season, he has five straight Top-10 finishes, too.  

Ryan Blaney (+1,200)

The Team Penske driver has an astounding four Top-2 finishes in his last eight tries at Talladega, including a pair of wins (2019, 2020). On superspeedways this season, he’s finished eight, seventh, second, ninth, and 36th at Daytona. He’s scored the seventh-most points (149) on superspeedways this season and has led fourth-most laps (77). He fits all the trends (see below) too. 

Denny Hamlin (+1,400)

He can win at any given time on a superspeedway, but his short odds, having just one Top-10 in his last 10 superspeedway starts, give me slight pause. However, six Top-7 finishes in his last 10 Talladega tries also give me optimism. He has seven straight Top-7s in the fall race, too. Hamlin has scored just the 12th-most points on superspeedways this season though, with finishes of 17th, sixth, 17th, 14th, 26th, but I’ll still roll with the hottest driver in the series right now. 

YellaWood 500 sleepers

Aric Almirola (+2,000)

The Stewart-Haas driver had a streak of eight straight Top-10 finishes at Talladega, including five in the Top-5 and a win in October 2018. Since? 37th, 15th, 26th, 13th, 14th, 22nd. However, he was third in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 and has shown a lot of speed lately.

Daniel Suarez (+2,500)

His two Atlanta finishes last year were fourth and sixth. He was runner-up this past July and had a good car before being caught up in a crash this spring. For the Daytona 500, he was seventh, and here was ninth this spring.

Chase Briscoe (+2,800)

Four of his five Talladega finishes have been inside the Top-15. He was fourth this past spring, led the most laps in the Coke Zero Sugar 400, and had a car capable of winning.

YellaWood 500 fades

Joey Logano (+1,200)

These were among his worst tracks last year, but this year, Logano has scored the second-most points (177) and led the most laps (175). He’s also a three-time Talladega winner. So why am I fading him? Five of his last six Talladega finishes have also seen him finish 26th or worse, with just one Top-10 finish in his last seven here. That’s a reason to be wary. He was 30th this past spring and if push comes to shove, he’s going to be a pusher to help a Ford and not the one being pushed to a win. 

Bubba Wallace (+1,400)

He won here in 2021, and was runner-up in the 2021 Daytona 500 too. If he can stay out of trouble, the odds are good for a win on Sunday. My only pause is the fact that his win in 2021 is his only finish better than 14th here in his 11 Cup tries. His NXS finishes were 31st, 20th, 13th and 13th, respectively. On superspeedways this season, he’s finished 20th, 27th, 28th, 25th, 12th. He’s accumulated just the 22nd-most points (90) on them.

Kyle Busch (+2,000)

Not one of his better races. While he won in the spring, he’s only 2-for-36 in trips to Victory Lane. Busch’s last nine finishes in the fall Talladega race have been 11th or worse, including his last seven being 30th, 27th, 26th, 19th, 27th, 27th, and 20th. I don’t foresee a sweep this weekend despite having the third-most points scored (160) on superspeedways. No one has swept the pair of Talladega races since 2007.

YellaWood 500 prop pick

Ford to win outright (+135)

Ford had won 11 of 14 races at Talladega, then Chevy has gone out to win three straight now. By comparison, Toyota has won two of the last three fall races, but has only won three times in the last 28 races overall — two of which were won by Denny Hamlin.

Ford has also dominated laps led this season on like tracks:

• They led 122 of 212 in Daytona 500, and 110 of 163 laps in the Coke Zero Sugar 400.
• They led 88 of 196 in Talladega.
• They led 221 of 260 in Atlanta 1, and 145 of 185 in Atlanta 2.

That’s 686 of 1,018 (67.3%) of all laps led on these tracks by the Blue Ovals.

However, they’re 2-for-5 this year. But, with how strong they were in Daytona and how much they know that this is their best shot at getting multiple cars through to the Round of 8, I think they deliver. 

Pick: Ford to win outright (+135 at DraftKings)

Talladega Superspeedway track analysis

The track is similar to Daytona and now Atlanta, which is why you’ll see similar trends here. In turn, it’s also why the usual suspects should be up front, too. 

In saying that, don’t overthink it this week. For this race in particular, a non-playoff driver has won the playoff race at Talladega six times. Only one of whom, Bubba Wallace, is in Cup anymore. However, since the win-and-advance format was introduced to the sport in 2014, the playoff race has always been won by an existing playoff driver with the exception of 2021. They’re 8-for-9.

On top of that, four of the last five Talladega playoff winners were outside the Top 8 in the playoff standings entering Talladega, including Wallace not even being in the playoffs in 2021. So that means that Wallace, Reddick, Blaney, and Busch are the trendy picks.

YellaWood 500 trends

• The last four winners each started 19th, 19th, 16th, and 17th. 13 of the previous 14 races were won by the Top 6 rows. Only two pole winners (Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2017, Denny Hamlin 2020) won in the last 37 Cup races at Talladega. 
  
  
• Those are the only two front-row starters to win since the playoff race of 2011 (24 races). Five of the previous 13 races were won by front-row starters. On top of that, only one Daytona pole winner has won there since 2011 (Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2016) too.
  
  
• Since 1995, only eight drivers have earned their first or second career wins at Talladega. 
  
  
• A driver has scored their first or second career superspeedway win at Talladega seven years in a row. 

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