3 Teams Being Undervalued in 2024 NBA Championship Odds

Nikola Jokic hasn’t even pet his damn horses yet, and we’re already breaking down the NBA odds to win the championship next season.

The freshly-crowned Denver Nuggets are the top choice in most 2024 NBA Finals odds, followed by the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks out East. Those teams sit at +500 or lower at some books.

But with an offseason’s worth of player movement to come, including free agency next month, the landscape of the NBA will shift drastically before opening night. And even after it starts, in-season deals and the feverish trade deadline can turn a pretender into a contender.

I don’t have a crystal ball when it comes to those roster moves, but we can read the tea leaves when it comes to player rumors and team trajectories. Here are three teams that are currently undervalued in the NBA Championship odds for 2023-24.

Miami Heat (+2,700)

Yikes. This is a bit of a slap in the face of the reigning Eastern Conference champs. Miami is out there for the taking at +2,700 to win next year’s NBA title.

Sure, the Heat got hot at the right time and then fizzled out in the Finals but there’s a lot to work with in South Beach. 

Jimmy Butler proved once again he should be up there among the game’s elite, and Bam Adebayo has blossomed into one of the better two-way talents in the league. Head coach Erik Spoelstra is perhaps the most underrated coach in NBA history, and will be among my bets in the NBA Coach of the Year odds in 2023-24.

Bam Adebayo going to work ???? pic.twitter.com/VryNeUWfyj

— ESPN (@espn) June 8, 2023

That’s what we know about Miami. What we don’t know has a high ceiling. 

South Beach is an attractive destination for free agents as well as any disgruntled players trying to worm their way out of their current situation via a trade. Not only is it fun in the sun and a quality culture, but Florida’s lack of income tax is much easier on those multi-million dollar salaries.

ESPN's Brian Windhorst didn’t waste time after Miami’s Game 5 loss to start the rumor mill, pointing out that the Heat have plenty of draft picks and valuable pieces to play with should they try to lure a big-name talent.

At the top of that list is Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard, who has already expressed his desire to team up with Adebayo and Butler. Other additions that would skyrocket the Heat up the futures board include Jaylen Brown, Jordan Poole, Trae Young, and Bradley Beal. 

Phoenix Suns (+900)

OK, maybe the fourth choice on the NBA futures odds isn’t a “sleeper” pick to win the title, but the Suns are certainly undervalued. Phoenix ranges in price, but can be had as big as +900 at some shops.

The Nuggets only lost four times en route to their NBA title. Two of those defeats came at the hands of the Suns. 

Phoenix’s dynamic duo of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant instantly makes it a contender, even if you surrounded those scorers with dirty pylons and rusty lawn chairs — which was pretty much what the Suns looked like in the end.

Phoenix was in rough shape when it lost to Denver in the second round of the playoffs. Chris Paul was out (maybe a good thing), and center Deandre Ayton was battling through busted ribs, testing the puddle-like depth of the roster. And still they gave the Nuggets a go.

We know CP3’s time in the desert is over, with the team floating trade offers before likely cutting him. And then Ayton’s name is involved in just about every possible trade scenario under the sun… for the Suns. Phoenix doesn’t have the picks to sweeten the pot, but is a desirable spot for some older free agents chasing glory. 

There’s wiggle room in the ledger for Phoenix if it can dump some costs, especially Ayton’s salary. However, it’s not out of the question to see the Suns add veteran talent with plenty of tread left on the tires. Fred VanVleet or Khris Middleton would both fit in nicely. 

If you want to really dream big for the Grand Canyon State: How about Kyrie Irving reuniting with KD in the desert? The buzz is out there if Irving was willing to take a pay cut to chase another title.

New Orleans Pelicans (+3,600) 

You’d be hard pressed to find a team impacted by injuries as much as the Pelicans. New Orleans played a game of musical chairs with its starting five, and really fell off when Zion Williamson went down just after New Year’s Day.

The team was 23-13 SU with a net rating of +4.8 before Zion’s blown hammy on January 2 — third-highest in the league. The Pels would finish the remainder of the schedule 19-27 SU with that net rating slumping to -0.5, which isn’t too bad considering.

Here’s how much oddsmakers respect the potential of the Pelicans: NOLA finished 10th in the West but has better odds to win the 2024 NBA Championship than the Sacramento Kings (+4,500), who finished No. 3 in the conference. New Orleans is bouncing between +3,300 and +3,600 in the NBA futures.

Williamson is the great unknown. On top of his questionable conditioning and inability to stay healthy, he blew off a return to action after NOLA earned a shot in the play-in tournament, despite videos of him dunking in shootaround. Now he’s got off-court drama involving an adult movie star — which is never good — and could be trade bait with the Pelicans reportedly making a move for top point guard prospect Scoot Henderson.

“I’m told [The Pelicans] are going after Scoot Henderson... Do the Pelicans look hard internally of moving Zion Williamson?” ????@ShamsCharania on #Pelicans looking to trade up to draft Scoot Henderson#RunItBack with @MichelleDBeadle @ChandlerParsons & @bansky pic.twitter.com/spGBgFR32d

— FanDuel TV (@FanDuelTV) June 13, 2023

New Orleans has a bounty of draft picks to tempt the Charlotte Hornets, who own the No. 2 pick, and may have to package those with promising talent. But for the sake of argument, let’s say NOLA does land Scoot with minimal damage to its existing core, and Zion goes Keto all summer to come in lean and mean next fall.

The trio of Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and C.J. McCollum is already dangerous enough, but add the aggressive play of Henderson as the primary ball carrier, getting Zion out in transition and allowing C.J. to play the No. 2… OOOOWEEE! Trey Murphy III, who stepped up big with extra minutes, and Jonas Valanciunas round out a six-man rotation that can complete with any team in the Western Conference.

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