76ers vs Bucks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: No Freedom for Philly

The Philadelphia 76ers and the Milwaukee Bucks dominated headlines this offseason. Unfortunately for the 76ers, the reason they’re in the news is that nobody has any idea when or if former MVP James Harden is ever going to suit up for them again. The Bucks are making the opposite kind of headlines, locking up Giannis Antetokounmpo on a three-year max extension after trading for All-NBA guard Damian Lillard.

The NBA odds at many bookmakers consider the Dame and Giannis pairing so potent that they’re the clubhouse leader to win the whole thing. Once seen as a suitable rival, the 76ers have fallen to a tier below. If they want to change the narrative, a road win in Milwaukee on Thursday, October 26 would be a good start.

Our NBA picks and predictions for 76ers vs. Bucks believe the disruptions to Philadelphia’s training camp and preseason will see them come up short against Milwaukee.

76ers vs Bucks odds

76ers vs Bucks predictions

The NBA saved one of the most anticipated debuts for last, as the first game pairing Milwaukee Bucks stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard is also the last of the 30 teams to open the season. Their opponents, the Philadelphia 76ers, are without the ever-mercurial former MVP James Harden, and it’s unclear what, if anything, he’s going to contribute on the court this season.

This line has seen quite a bit of movement, but it’s still available at just -4.5 at some sportsbooks. At that price, I think this is the best value on the board, because even if I don’t expect the Bucks to reach their ceiling in Game 1, they’re in much better shape entering the season than the 76ers.

The Bucks slow-played things in the preseason, and even then, the results were promising. Rather than simply spam Giannis and Lillard pick and rolls, they tried to take a measured, balanced approach. But if this game is competitive in the fourth quarter, the 76ers are going to be the first team that has to provide some kind of answer to that problem. 

It’s just not clear what that answer will be. Blitz Lillard? Well, Giannis just dunked. Form a wall as Giannis gets a full head of steam to the rim? Oops, he just whipped a pass to Dame open on the wing from three. Both outcomes spell death.

Joel Embiid is the reigning MVP but having him come to the level 30 times a game is not a realistic option. Dame is going to get clean looks, or Giannis is going to have a runway to the hoop. There’s no two ways about it. 

It’s all about execution for Milwaukee at that point, and while I am expecting some rust as the Bucks new duo puts it all together, I’m also expecting some from Philly.

The 76ers weren’t able to get much out of their training camp and preseason. It’s already difficult to integrate the on-court philosophies of a new coach, doubly so one whose styles are as different as the jump from Doc Rivers to Nick Nurse. 

But the Sixers had to do so without Embiid being able to play in more than a single preseason game, and with the lingering uncertainty of whether or not their All-NBA caliber starting point guard would be a part of the rotation.

Not knowing who your five best available players are makes it difficult to develop chemistry. Not having the focal point of your offense and defense available makes it impossible. The 76ers are starting off the season behind the 8-ball.

So, while the Bucks have a lot of adjustments of their own to make, and no shortage of drama with the eyebrow-raising departure of assistant coach Terry Stotts, the on-court certainty is a massive difference between these two teams.

The 76ers are probably going to be better this season than many expect, but I’m expecting them to struggle out of the gates with all this uncertainty and a limited Embiid ramp-up.

My best bet: Bucks -4.5 (-110 at 888sport)

76ers vs Bucks same-game parlay

Bucks ML (-230)

Over 225 (-110)

Maxey Over 21.5 points (-125)

+315 at DraftKings

Since a Bucks cover isn’t available at a suitable price for a same-game parlay, I’m going with the Milwaukee moneyline, Over 225 total points, and Tyrese Maxey Over 21.5 points.

Going with the Over because this line feels a touch low to me given the dramatic shift in style of play for the Bucks that’s coming. Giannis has never had a teammate as capable at off-the-dribble threes as Dame, nor such a good passer in the pick and roll. Those two are going to be wrecking balls on offense from Day 1.

But Dame has also been one of the worst perimeter defenders in basketball for a few years running. With a new team and new emphasis, that could change, but I wouldn’t expect a dramatic improvement. The downgrade on the defensive end from Jrue Holiday to Lillard is about as big a drop as one can possibly imagine.

Not only does that auger a high-scoring game, it helps the fortunes of Tyrese Maxey. Unless and until Harden returns to the team, the ball is going to be in Maxey’s hands a ton. In games Maxey played last season without Harden he averaged 24.8 points. I’m expecting more of the same as Maxey takes the next step as an on-ball player this season.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

76ers vs Bucks and Over/Under analysis

The Bucks opened as -4.5-point favorites against Philadelphia, that’s risen as high as -6.5 at some sportsbooks. That higher line is closer to how I value this matchup, particularly because the Bucks are solid home team against the spread.

Last season, the Bucks went 24-18-2 ATS in Milwaukee. 

Harden being in and out of training camp is significantly worse than if he was a complete zero. If he simply didn’t show at all, or loafed through practice, Nurse would be able to move on and plan for the team he has. By being halfway in and then out again, Nurse has probably had to envision at least two totally different versions of this team.

The Bucks meanwhile get to be all about business. The on-court fit between Lillard and Giannis is so clean, and Dame has rarely played with a five who can truly stretch the floor the way Brook Lopez can. 

Of course, Dame has only ever played for one franchise. So, it may take some time before we see a totally molten Dame Time like we’re used to, but this offense should be collectively very good right away, and certainly good enough to cover at -4.5.

There’s been some fluctuation with the total, with it opening between 225 and 226.5. That’s fallen across most sportsbooks and is available as low as 224.5 at time of writing.

Carrying through to last season and the playoffs, the Over is 7-0 in Milwaukee’s last seven games. I wouldn’t worry too much about trends at this point in the season, but it’s notable because the standards for an Over for the Bucks have changed dramatically.

The necessary consequence of the Lillard trade is that the Bucks go from being a team with a shaky offense that wins by grinding it out on the defensive end, to the exact inverse. They’re now all-in on offense and finishing anything lower than Top-5 in the NBA would be a huge disappointment. 

They’re going to try to merely get by on the other end, which was clear when Malik Beasley was formally announced as the fifth starter. A Lillard and Beasley backcourt is about as flammable as any guard pairing the Portland Trail Blazers ever put together, which means Milwaukee is relying on their All-World frontcourt to clean up a lot of mistakes.

Giannis and Brook Lopez just happen to be two of the best defenders in the game, but the perimeter and in-between game is going to be vulnerable for the Bucks. If Embiid can get rolling from midrange or Maxey from three, this could easily go Over. 

76ers vs Bucks betting trend to know

Over is 7-0 in Milwaukee’s last seven games. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Bucks.

76ers vs Bucks game info

76ers vs Bucks latest injuries

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