76ers vs Bulls Picks and Predictions: Harden Heaves Hindered

It’s the second end of an NBA home-and-home set between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday, March 22. The Bulls pulled off a dramatic victory in double overtime on Monday night, sending off another MVP-level performance from Joel Embiid en route to a 109-105 victory. 

The 76ers produced one of their worst offensive efforts of the season, and one expects they’ll be looking to redeem themselves for an uncharacteristically sloppy performance against an Eastern Conference lesser.

Our NBA picks and predictions for 76ers vs. Bulls are banking on James Harden’s recent offensive struggles to continue.

76ers vs Bulls best odds

76ers vs Bulls picks and predictions

These two teams just played on Monday, with the Chicago Bulls pulling off a double overtime upset victory over the heavily-favored Philadelphia 76ers. As someone who expected the 76ers to cover, it was a shock, but a post-game autopsy produced an easy diagnosis. James Harden, who despite not making the All-Star team is having an All-NBA caliber season, turned in one of the worst games of his career.

Harden finished with five points on 2-14 from the field, and while he added 12 assists, he undermined the value of that distribution with five turnovers. On the season, Harden is at 21.4 points per game on 61% true shooting, tuning into the perfect second star and lead distributor for the 76ers, when some thought he might be washed after last season’s disappointing playoff finish.

It’s clear now that last year’s late-season drop-off was the product of a recurring hamstring injury, and that when healthy, the Beard is still one of the best in the game. Only thing is, Harden is suddenly not healthy again. Doc Rivers revealed after Monday’s game that Harden was dealing with Achilles soreness that limited his performance, and it was easy to spot in retrospect.

It’s possible that this issue has been lingering for a while now, as Harden has been having down performances for the last several games. At 19.5 Harden's points prop for Wednesday is set below his season average of 21.3 points, but Harden hasn’t managed to score 20 points or more in five of his last six games. He’s also shooting 21.4% from three and 34.9% from the field in that same span.

While Harden has earned a questionable tag for Wednesday’s game, I think there’s a good chance he suits up. Harden has faced a lot of criticism in his career for a variety of reasons (the aesthetics of his iso-heavy game, poor playoff performances, numerous trade requests, etc.) but he’s been a durable player who shuns load management as a rule.

Another reason I believe Harden will play is that, despite his poor performance, he didn’t leave Monday’s game. He racked up an astonishing 47 minutes, so if his foot injury didn’t prevent him from playing deep into two overtimes, I doubt it will see him miss Wednesday’s game.

If Harden is ultimately a late scratch, no harm no foul, but if he plays — as I’m guessing he will — he’s not going to be doing himself any favors. As we saw during the tail end of last season, despite not being a particularly fast player, Harden does rely on his burst to get his offensive game going. If he can’t get separation and beat his man, he can’t draw fouls and he can’t score at the rim. It also means he’s not going to get the necessary life on his stepback 3-point shot, leaving him mostly as an offensive decoy who is focused on racking up assists.

My best bet: James Harden Under 19.5 points (-115)

76ers vs Bulls spread analysis

Monday’s game was the first time that the Bulls have defeated Joel Embiid in the 13 times he’s played them in his career. And though the 76ers lost, Embiid himself still had an awesome game, adding 37 points, 16 rebounds, and three blocks before ultimately fouling out. So, while it would be easy to overreact to an impressive Bulls performance, I think the line has moved too aggressively in favor of Chicago. 

The 76ers closed as much as 8-point favorites on Monday, but at most books for today’s game, they’re only at -2.5. Homecourt advantage is worth around 2-3 points in the NBA, so a -8-point spread represents a material swing in Chicago’s favor that I don’t think is fully justified, even with Harden likely limited.

Philadelphia is 4-0 against the spread in its last four games on the road, as well as a sterling 42-29 ATS overall. The Sixers haven’t let a hiccup turn into a losing skid in a while either. They’re also 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. If there’s a reason to buy the Bulls in this one, it’s that they’ve been better against the spread recently and always get up to play elite teams at home. They’re 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.

76ers vs Bulls Over/Under analysis

I was pretty confident in the Over for Monday’s game, but with the revelation that Harden is nursing this Achilles injury, suddenly the 76ers offense becomes a lot more manageable. The Bulls do an excellent job defending on the perimeter and swarming Embiid on the bounce, which contributed to his five turnovers on Monday night. Philadelphia overall seemed a bit shellshocked by the amount of ball pressure the Bulls were able to muster, and if Alex Caruso ends up available for Wednesday’s game it will only go up another notch.

Even so, there are reasons to suspect that both offenses left a lot of points on the table in their previous contest. Philadelphia coughed the ball up 19 times, and yet Chicago turned that into just 14 fast break points. Transition defense has not been the strong suit of the 76ers all season, so if they’re able to have similar success forcing turnovers on Wednesday the Bulls should score a lot better. 

Both teams also shot abysmally from 3-point range. Collectively, the Bulls and 76ers shot 17-69 or 24.6% from downtown. It’s quite unlikely that both teams muster that kind of ineptitude from behind the arc again, so despite the slugfest on Monday, I lean towards the Over again at 222.

76ers vs Bulls betting trend to know

76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Bulls.

76ers vs Bulls game info

76ers vs Bulls key injuries

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