Top 5 NBA Team Win Total Bets for 2023-24 Season: Jazz Still With Upside to Spare

The tipoff to the 2023-24 season is quickly approaching, and most rosters around the league are set, helping NBA futures take shape. Expect for maybe the Philadelphia 76ers, who are still dealing with the James Harden drama. But generally, we can now take a proper look at the NBA odds for some regular season win totals.

Speaking of that Harden drama, is there some NBA win totals value in the Sixers with or without him? Did the Milwaukee Bucks not get a big enough adjustment following the trade for Damian Lillard? And how will the Chris Paul experiment work with the Golden State Warriors?

I take a look at all of those scenarios and more as I bring you my five best NBA picks for 2023-24 win totals.

Best NBA win totals picks for 2023-24

Who wants war?

The Dubs' latest title defense did not go as planned. It started with the drama between Jordan Poole and Draymond Green, ending with a mediocre 44-38 and a disappointing playoff exit. 

So out goes the Poole distraction and in comes future Hall of Fame point guard Chris Paul. Not only is CP3 the type of player that Steve Kerr would love to coach, he's also the perfect floor general for when Steph Curry needs to come off the floor.

It will also help the Warriors that Andrew Wiggins likely won’t miss more than half the season again.

On top of that, I would be shocked if the Warriors didn’t improve on their ridiculously bad 11-30 road record from last season. Just a couple more road wins and they would have gone Over this number last year as well.

The big question, of course, is whether Paul can stay healthy. If he does, I think the Warriors clear this number.

Pick: Warriors Over 47.5 wins (-112 at FanDuel)

Failure to launch

The Rockets lifted off this summer, making some of the biggest splashes in the free-agent market. They signed Fred VanVleet to a massive contract to not only lead the offense but lead the locker room. Houston also brought in Dillon Brooks to give the rotation more grit and some identity on the defensive end of the floor, where they ranked 29th in defensive rating last season.

However, there are a few problems with that. VanVleet has gone through a rash of injuries in the last couple of seasons due to a high usage rate. His production also varied a bit more once he became a primary scorer. He’s a solid shooter, but can struggle to create his own shot when opposing teams key on him. And Brooks, to put it nicely, is not an efficient scorer.

If the Rockets were to go Over this number, that would be a 10-win improvement. That’s a massive jump. And I’m just not sure the addition of those two guys combined with this young Rockets core is enough to account for that improvement.

Pick: Rockets Under 31.5 wins (+100 at DraftKings)

Wauk the walk

This number seems a little low for a team that has, for my money, the best player on the planet in Giannis Antetokounmpo. A guy who already has an NBA Finals MVP under his belt. And the Bucks made the biggest move in the offseason by trading for superstar Damian Lillard. 

If you could grow the perfect teammate for the Greek Freak in a lab you would come up with Lillard. A dead-eye shooter with unlimited range. Now, Milwaukee will lose something on the defensive end with Jrue Holiday heading out in the Lillard trade, but they’ve still got the length to supplement that loss. And that’s something you make do with when you can acquire one of the best scorers in the NBA.

The Bucks have gone Over this number three times in the last four full seasons. They also still have the benefit of playing in the Central Division. While the quality of the division is improving, the Bucks are still head-and-shoulders above the rest and now they have the best one-two-punch in the NBA.

Pick: Bucks Over 53.5 wins (-104 at FanDuel)

No Philadelphia freedom

There's a massive James Harden-shaped cloud hanging over the start of this 76ers season. We're just a few weeks away from this new season tipping off and their standoff doesn't appear close to a resolution.

And with the way this roster is currently constructed, that could mean trouble for Philly. The Sixers will have to rely on Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey more than ever.  They could really use some more shooting, and now playmaking as well with Harden basically out the door. Additionally, the minutes without Embiid on the floor can’t be a black hole for production.

Fifty-win seasons are tough to come by in the NBA, particularly in a very tough Atlantic Division. There are just too many questions surrounding this team to feel confident that they’ll get there. With or without Harden. Unless they get a crazy return in a potential Harden deal, Under 49.5 wins looks like a solid play here.

Pick: 76ers Under 49.5 wins (-120 at DraftKings)

Groovy tunes

The Jazz are coming off a surprising season, which started with a bang but kind of petered out down the stretch. Despite that, Utah still finished the year with 37 wins, and it appears the team has some real building blocks moving forward.

Lauri Markkanen finally had that breakout season many were waiting for, earning his first All-Star selection. Walker Kessler looks like he will be an impact NBA center for many years to come. And the team did well to extend Jordan Clarkson. 

Then they made a low-risk, high-reward move by bringing in Jon Collins, even if the frontcourt is a little bit crowded. If Collins can find his game again, the Jazz can be a pesky team in the Northwest Division. The rebuild for Utah isn’t complete, but it's trending in the right direction heading into this season and it would at least be a little surprising if it didn’t improve on last year’s win total.

Pick: Jazz Over 35.5 wins (-115 at DraftKings)

2023-24 NBA win total odds

Want to check up on the latest NBA win totals before locking your picks in? We've got you covered!

Team
Atlanta Hawks	42.5 (O -110/U- 110)
Boston Celtics	54.5 (O -110/U -110)
Brooklyn Nets	37.5 (O -110/U -110)
Charlotte Hornets	31.5 (O +100/U -120)
Chicago Bulls	37.5 (O -110/U -110)
Cleveland Cavaliers	50.5 (O -110/U -110)
Dallas Mavericks	43.5 (O -110/U -110)
Denver Nuggets	53.5 (O +105/U -125)
Detroit Pistons	28.5 (O +100/U -120)
Golden State Warriors	48.5 (O -120/U +100)
Houston Rockets	31.5 (O -120/U +100)
Indiana Pacers	38.5 (O -110/U -110)
Los Angeles Clippers	46.5 (O -110/U -110)
Los Angeles Lakers	47.5 (O -110/U -110)
Memphis Grizzlies	45.5 (O -120/U +100)
Miami Heat	45.5 (O +100/U -120)
Milwaukee Bucks	54.5 (O -120/U +100)
Minnesota Timberwolves	44.5 (O -110/U -110)
New Orleans Pelicans	44.5 (O -110/U -110)
New York Knicks	45.5 (O +100/U -120)
Oklahoma City Thunder	44.5 (O -110/U -110)
Orlando Magic	36.5 (O -120/U +100)
Philadelphia 76ers	49.5 (O +100/U -120)
Phoenix Suns	51.5 (O -120/U +100)
Portland Trail Blazers	28.5 (O -110/ U -110)
Sacramento Kings	44.5 (O -110/U -110)
San Antonio Spurs	29.5 (O -110/U -110)
Toronto Raptors	36.5 (O +100/U -120)
Utah Jazz	35.5 (O -115/U -105)
Washington Wizards	24.5 (O -1110/ U -110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of October 12, 2023.

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