Bucks vs Bulls Picks and Predictions: Favorites Assert Themselves In Chi

For most of an NBA season, standings can be looked at in groupings. At this point in a season, however, the standings very clearly represent a playoff pecking order.

A Milwaukee Bucks win tonight would suddenly position them as the No. 3 seed in the East, increasingly vital because it means avoiding the red-hot Celtics. The Chicago Bulls may still be without half their preferred backcourt rotation, but they need a win tonight more than usual.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Bulls on Friday, March 4.

Bucks vs Bulls odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The first lines Thursday evening favored Milwaukee by only 1.5 points, but that moved up to -3.5 across most of the board by Friday’s sunrise. The total saw less movement overnight, opening at 238.0 and ticking up to 238.5 at most books early Friday.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Bucks vs Bulls predictions

• Prediction: Bucks -3.0 (-108)
• Prediction: Over 238.0 (-110)
• Best bet: Bucks -3.0 (-108)

Predictions made on 3/4/2022 at 8:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Bucks vs Bulls game info

• Location: United Center, Chicago, IL
• Date: Friday, March 4, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Bucks vs Bulls betting preview

Key injuries

Bucks: George Hill PG (Out), Pat Connaughton SG (Out), Brook Lopez C (Out).
Bulls: Patrick Williams SF (Out), Lonzo Ball PG (Out), Alex Caruso SG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 9-1 in the latter half of Chicago’s last 10 back-to-backs. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Bulls.

Bucks vs Bulls picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

While Milwaukee has covered the spread only once in its last seven games, Chicago has arguably looked worse since the All-Star break, going 1-3 ATS since that week off. Suffice to say, neither team is exceeding expectations at the moment. The Bucks have at least been winning a few games, going 2-1 since the break, while the Bulls have gone 1-3 with an active three-game losing streak.

Chicago cannot afford to stumble anymore. After surprising everyone all season, falling toward the back half of the Eastern Conference’s playoff teams would likely put the Bulls into a postseason matchup with little optimism. Meanwhile, this is the part of the season Milwaukee has been building toward throughout its title defense. The Bucks won on the road in a game seven last year; they would rather enjoy postseason health than home-court advantage.

If Milwaukee is finding its groove, then tonight will be a ripe opportunity to show it. Frankly, whether the Bucks are finding that groove or not, tonight will be a ripe opportunity to act like it.

That is how much Chicago has fallen off of late. The Bulls have played 63 games thus far. In their first 33 — up until Dec. 31 — their net rating was 3.9 points per game. In the 30 games since Jan. 1, that has fallen to -0.4. 

To give those numbers some more pertinent context, a season-long number of 3.9 would belong as the No. 2 or 3 seed in the East. A rating of -0.4, across the season, would be scraping with the Nets and the Hornets for the No. 8 seed.

When looking at this matchup through that lens, one could make a decent argument Milwaukee should be favored by three possessions, not a hook more than one.

Prediction: Bucks -3.0 (-108)

Over/Under analysis

This particular handicapper has made it a habit of late to hit the Under on any game with a total of 238.0 or higher. Since the All-Star break, that approach has cashed five out of six times. Too much has to go right for both teams to reliably trust the Over with totals that high.

But tonight, well, let’s consider tonight the exception that proves this rule.

Four of Milwaukee’s last five games would have crested the Over of 238, and the one that fell short reached 236 total points (in a game with a total of 238.0, fittingly). Seven of their last 10 games would top this total, and one more would have pushed.

Last night, the Bulls provided nearly no defense against the Hawks in a 130-124 losing shootout. All season, when Chicago’s legs get tired, it relents on defense before offense.

And neither of these teams is going to try to change any of these habits. Since Jan. 1, the Bucks rank No. 7 in the league in possessions per game, with the Bulls not far behind at No. 12.

Prediction: Over 238.0 (-110)

Best bet

Still, so much has to go right for both teams to reach the Over 238.0 or 238.5. Making that the best bet would be so dependent on every aspect of each offense.

Instead, we’re taking simple faith in Milwaukee to act like a title contender while Chicago looks more and more like nothing more than a fun surprise. There may be an inclination to invest in further DeMar DeRozan stardom, but when he has to face defenders like Jrue Holiday, Kris Middleton and some guy named Giannis on every possession, that also feels like a reach.

For that matter, defenders like that are why the best bet cannot be on the Over. Rather, it should be on the Bucks to cover this without much trouble. If wanting to be greedy, shopping for an alternate line of -5.5 at +133 would hold value, as well.

Pick: Bucks -3.0 (-108)

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