Bucks vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Celts' D Starting to Click

The Boston Celtics have won and covered in three of their last four games, and they just so happened to pick up their first home win of the year on Tuesday. Now, the Celtics will look to keep it up against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks. 

Will Boston make it two wins in a row at TD Garden? The team is a small underdog in this game, but keep reading out Bucks vs. Celtics picks and predictions for Friday, November 13 to find out if they can get the job done. 

Bucks vs Celtics odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Depending on where you look, the Celtics are either getting 1.5 or 2 points in this meeting with the Bucks. The line opened with Boston as a 2-point underdog, so this hasn’t moved all that much. The total isn’t much different. It opened at 211.5 and you can find it from anywhere from 211.5 to 212.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Bucks vs Celtics predictions

• Celtics +2.0 (-110)
• Under 212.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Celtics +2.0 (-110)

Predictions made on 11/12/2021 at 10:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Bucks vs Celtics game info

• Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
• Date: Friday, November 12, 2021
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Bucks vs Celtics betting preview

Injuries

Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo F (Probable), Brook Lopez C (Out), Khris Middleton F (Out), Donte DiVincenzo G (Out)
Celtics: Jaylen Brown F (Out)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 18-7-2 in Milwaukee’s last 27 games as a favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Celtics.

Bucks vs Celtics picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

There aren’t many bettors giving the Celtics much of a chance in this game, as it seems like a large majority of the tickets are coming in on the Bucks here. Boston, however, is in the midst of its best stretch of the entire season, with the team having won and covered in three of its last four. 

Jaylen Brown’s absence is a tough one to overcome for the Celtics, but it’s not like the Bucks are at full strength either. Milwaukee will be without Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo in this game. Not only is that a lot of offensive firepower missing for the Bucks, but they’ll also be without some of their best defensive players. 

Antetokounmpo is still arguably the best player on the planet right now, but he doesn’t have all that much help in this game. Jrue Holiday is a tremendous two-way guard for the Bucks, but Marcus Smart is one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball. Boston will have the luxury of throwing Smart on Holiday in this game, and that will likely mean that the Celtics won’t have to worry about Holiday going off. Meanwhile, Tatum is also a superb defender and will likely do a solid job on Antetokounmpo in this game. At the very least, he can force him into taking tough shots around the basket, where both Al Horford and Robert Williams III will be waiting to protect the rim. 

One player to keep an eye on in this game is Dennis Schroder. The 28-year-old has had a rather up-and-down career to this point, but he is beginning to get comfortable with Boston. The guard comes into this one after having scored 20 points in back-to-back games. He also went 2 for 3 from the outside last game, which was an encouraging sign after such a miserable start to the month from deep. 

Prediction: Celtics +2.0 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Celtics didn’t get off to a great start to the year defensively, but Boston is now 10th in the league in defensive rating. The Celtics have held three of their last four opponents to under 90 points coming into this game, and the one team that went above that mark was Dallas, who scored only 107 points. When shrinking the data to the last four games, the Celtics have the best defensive rating in basketball, by far. That number sits at 93.9 over the last four, with the second-best team being the Washington Wizards at 98.7. 

With Boston really playing some great basketball on the defensive end, the Under seems like the right play against a Milwaukee team that will be without both Middleton and Lopez. In general, the Bucks are just 16th in the league in offensive rating this season, and they haven’t quite clicked on that end of the floor yet. Milwaukee did explode on offense against the New York Knicks, but it was mostly because the team shot 26 of 50 from the three-point line. The Knicks are giving up more made threes per game than anybody in basketball, though. The Celtics are giving up the 10th-fewest in that regard, so don’t expect the Bucks to shoot the lights out again. 

Finally, it’s also worth noting that eight of Milwaukee’s last nine games have gone Under the total, while three of Boston’s last four have done the same. The Under is also 25-14-1 in Milwaukee’s games against Atlantic Division opponents over the last three years. 

Prediction: Under 212.5 (-110) 

Best bet

Not only are the Celtics a good bet to cover the spread tonight, but they should also win this game outright. The Bucks might be coming off of a solid win over the Knicks, but it was also a bit flukey. It’s not every day that a team shoots 26 for 50 from three, and that avalanche of triples surely deflated the Knicks in that game. Against a Boston team that defends the three-point line a lot better, don’t expect Milwaukee to get that hot again. 

The Celtics are also finding their groove at this point in the season. It has taken some time for Boston to figure things out, but Horford and Williams have been tremendous in the big man rotation. Last year, the play at center was a bit of a weakness for the Celtics, but it’s turned into a strength this year. Against a Bucks team missing its starting center, that could be a huge X-factor in this one. Josh Richardson has also played well in Brown’s absence, averaging 14.0 points per game over the last two contests. 

Pick: Celtics +2.0 (-110)

Pages related to this topic