Bucks vs Celtics Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Porzingis Takes Lead With Tatum at Reduced Strength

Tonight’s possible Eastern Conference Finals preview may be without one of its biggest stars as the Boston Celtics downgraded Jayston Tatum this morning to questionable against the Milwaukee Bucks, citing illness.

The usual edict is to buy on bad news, but Tatum may be so good, the opposite approach is indeed needed. Still, Tatum's status hasn't resulted in the Celtics suddenly becoming a home underdog in NBA odds.

Let’s find the best way to exploit this possible absence in our free NBA picks as we preview the Bucks vs the Celtics on Wednesday, November 22, with tip set for 7:30 ET.

Bucks vs Celtics odds

Bucks vs Celtics predictions

By NBA tea leaves standards, the game-day downgrade to questionable bodes very poorly for Jayson Tatum to play tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks. That trend is far from a certainty, but more often than not, it is the reality.

The Boston Celtics are playing their third game in four nights tonight and 11th in the last 19 nights — one of these weekends, a long look needs to be taken at this November compared to past Novembers, as it feels like the in-season tournament has created a bit more of a grind out of the gates this year — so Tatum needing a night off would make plenty of sense.

It also makes it hard to gauge the Celtics tonight, having not played without him this season and his not being a confirmed absence just yet. However, one player comes to mind as someone who produces regardless and would logically have more influence in a game without Tatum and/or a game slowed down by weary legs.

Hello, Kristaps Porzingis.

Boston's biggest offseason addition, the piece that the Celtics hope will get them back to the NBA Finals, Porzingis has scored 21 or more points in six of 13 games this season. This next sentence, the one excusing that poor rate, could point out that the Latvian fell short of tonight’s points prop against the Raptors and the Timberwolves, two of the league’s best defenses. Instead, let’s focus on his recent showings: Porzingis has scored 21 or more points in five of his last nine games, and one of those shortfalls was 20 points in Minnesota.

So we know he can reach this benchmark with Tatum around.

Without Tatum, Boston will need players who can create their own shots. Simply due to his height, that is Porzingis. Tatum attempts 20 shots per game, including 8.9 threes. If he is sidelined tonight, expect up to a quarter of that to fall to Porzingis, and the idea of him attempting an extra pair of threes is enough on its own to justify this points prop Over.

But then add in the Celtics’ legs. 11 games in 19 nights is a grind. Don’t dismiss that. And it will show up in transition. Boston ranks No. 7 in the league, slowing games down with just 98.87 possessions per game. That may lull even further tonight, and since Porzingis is not exactly a transition force, that will help him handle more of the offense.

With or without Tatum, Porzingis may crack 21 points. With or without Tatum, the Celtics may slow down tonight. Without Tatum, Porzingis will get plenty of extra shots.

My best bet: Kristaps Porzingis Over 20.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

Bucks vs Celtics same-game parlay

Kristaps Porzingis Over 20.5 points

Bucks +4.5

Under 234

+752 at FanDuel

If this handicapper has said it once, he has said it a thousand times: Buy on bad news, sell on good news.

But there are exceptions to that rule, and one of them is when an MVP candidate might be out against a veteran-led team featuring another MVP candidate. The Bucks will not overlook the Celtics simply because Tatum is dragging a bit. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and Brook Lopez know better. A lesser team may make that mistake — last year’s Timberwolves come to mind — but not a title-winning core looking for a second ring (or, for Lillard, a first).

And Tatum is worth a couple of points to a spread. So there should be value in anything north of +3, that second bucket giving Milwaukee a cushion.

Betting the Under here is a nod toward this November, not to mention the thought of replacing Tatum’s scoring. Even if he plays, an illness could cut into his effectiveness.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bucks vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened Tuesday afternoon with Boston favored by five, dropping to -4.5 before dinner and then ticking back up to -5 last night. It rose as high as -6 this morning before Tatum was downgraded to questionable, returning it to -4.5 with some books holding on to -5.

That adjustment was a half-measure, guarding against both sides of Tatum’s availability. But if he is out, expect the number to drop another point, at least.

The total opened at 236 or 236.5 before falling to 234.5 this morning, well before the Tatum news. That downgrade pushed the total down to 233.5 before it returned to 234 at most books.

Again, that half-point feels like a half-measure. Mike Ehrmantraut would be disappointed.

Bucks vs Celtics betting trend to know

Boston has gone 0-3 against the spread in its last three games, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 8.3 points, while Milwaukee has gone 4-0 ATS in its last four games, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 11.5 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Celtics.

Bucks vs Celtics game info

Bucks vs Celtics latest injuries

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