Despite what can only be described as inconsistent play, Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks still own the third-best record in the Eastern Conference and come into tonight’s game vs. the Atlanta Hawks as winners of three of their last four.
On the other side, it’s fair to say the move to bring in Dejounte Murray did not make the Hawks a better basketball team. Atlanta’s offense is failing to take flight and the team sits two games below .500.
That said, the Hawks have had the Bucks’ number of late, winning the last two meetings, and this is probably part of the reason the Bucks are only laying a few points in this game. So, who has the NBA betting edge?
I break down this Eastern Conference matchup and bring you my best bet in NBA picks and predictions for the Bucks vs. Hawks.
Bucks vs Hawks best odds
Bucks vs Hawks picks and predictions
The inconsistency of the Bucks this season is in large part due to their struggling offense. I mean, outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo, of course.
Now, that can be partly attributed to the injuries that Milwaukee has had to deal with but even so, the Bucks ranking 25th in offensive rating seems like a mistake for a team that has ranked seventh or better in that category each of the last four seasons.
Khris Middleton has missed most of the season to this point and is still working his way back to full health and will sit this one out but luckily for the Bucks, despite trading for Dejounte Murray, the Hawks' offense hasn’t been much better.
Atlanta ranks 21st in offensive rating and 27th in 3-point shooting percentage, and now there are reports that All-Star guard Trae Young and head coach Nate McMillian aren’t seeing eye-to-eye on the way the offense runs anymore.
Even though the Bucks have struggled on offense, they haven’t allowed those struggles to affect their effort on the other end of the floor. The Bucks rank third in defensive rating and second in opponent field goal percentage.
Milwaukee has another big edge in this matchup — on the glass. The Bucks rank third in rebounding rate while the Hawks are 25th in the same category. To make matters worse, one of their best rebounders, Clint Capela, will miss this game with a calf injury.
Giannis and the Bucks' defense is the difference maker against a Hawks team going through some turmoil. I’ll lay the points with Milwaukee as a small favorite.
My best bet: Bucks -4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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Bucks vs Hawks spread analysis
The Bucks opened this Eastern Conference matchup as 1-point favorites and have seen the majority of the early action. The line jumped to Milwaukee -2.5 and is currently at -4.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
I preferred this line at Bucks -2.5, but I’ll stick to my guns here and lay the added chalk — because Giannis is still doing his thing.
Prior to a couple of uneven performances, the two-time MVP had been averaging 34.7 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 5.4 assists over his previous 20 games.
Combine that with the Hawks' offense going against a strong Bucks defense and the favorite looks like a solid play here.
Bucks vs Hawks Over/Under analysis
The total for this matchup hit the board at a big 232 and it has been all Under money early on, driving the number down to 229. Even at that lower number, I’d have to agree with the early money.
The Bucks' offense just isn’t getting a whole lot out of its offense outside of Giannis. The Bucks rank 22nd in effective field goal percentage this season and no Middleton certainly doesn’t help that. As a result, the Bucks’ 112.4 points per game ranks 18th in the NBA.
While the Hawks rank 11th in scoring, the offense is certainly inefficient, ranking 24th in effective field goal percentage. Trae Young has been playing well lately but he’ll be hounded by Jrue Holiday all game long.
The number is still high enough that I would lean toward the Under.
Bucks vs Hawks betting trend to know
The Hawks are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games following an ATS win. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Hawks.
Bucks vs Hawks game info
| Location: | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 11, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
