Bucks vs Knicks Picks and Predictions: All Milwaukee at the Mecca

We've got afternoon hoops at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, as the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks visit a New York Knicks team mired in mediocrity. 

Despite lineup juggling throughout the season, Milwaukee has yet again emerged as the class of the NBA thus far, while Tom Thibodeau's New York is struggling to repeat its impressive season a year ago.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Knicks with tipoff on December 12. 

Bucks vs Knicks odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

This game opened with the Bucks between 3.5- and 4.5-point favorites, depending on the book. The total hit the board at 217.0. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Bucks vs Knicks predictions

• Prediction: Bucks -3.5 (-109)
• Prediction: Under 217 (-108)
• Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 11.5 rebounds (-135)

Predictions made on 12/11/2021 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Bucks vs Knicks game info

• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY
• Date: Sunday, December 12, 2021
• Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: MSG, Bally Sports Wisconsin 

Bucks vs Knicks betting preview

Injuries

Bucks: Donte DiVincenzo SG (Probable), George Hill PG (Questionable), Semi Ojeleye PF (Out), Brook Lopez C (Out).
Knicks: Obi Toppin PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Bucks are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Knicks and 5-2 ATS in the last seven at MSG. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Knicks.

Bucks vs Knicks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Bucks and Knicks both stumbled out of the gates in the new season but only one of these two have righted themselves. Milwaukee is now third in the Eastern Conference, at 17-10, and is rightfully seen as a title contender yet again. New York, meanwhile, is 12-14 and on the outside of the play-in picture with no obvious fix available. 

The balance that has marked Milwaukee for years now is back, with the champs in the Top 10 in adjusted offensive and defensive rating. Despite the continued, indefinite absence of Brook Lopez, the Bucks have appeared back to their tremendous selves since Jrue Holiday returned and stabilized the team.

There's even more reason for optimism, too, with Donte DiVincenzo set to return as early as Sunday. The 3&D's return will do wonders for an already strong defense and help to space the floor for the offense surrounding Giannis Antetokounmpo. Like with most well-established NBA contenders, it's difficult to tell a new story on the Bucks. They're fantastic on both ends, fifth in the NBA in effective field goal percentage while holding their opponents to the eighth-lowest mark, and are getting healthier. 

While the Bucks have climbed up in adjusted net rating, New York is down to 20th after finishing last season 10th. Despite sitting 14th in adjusted offensive rating, it's hard to have any confidence in the Knicks' offense. They're 23rd in eFG% and poor shooting is compounded by an offense that just makes everything hard, with only the Raptors, Jazz, Kings, and Thunder assisting on fewer buckets.

On the other end, despite still defending the paint as well as most Thibodeau teams, the defense has regressed to 22nd in adjusted rating after finishing last season third.

Yet, while Milwaukee and New York are far apart in the standings, the spread sits at Milwaukee -3.5, as the Bucks haven't consistently beaten teams big. The two are nearly identical in ATS marks, with the Bucks 11-16 and Knicks 11-15. Milwaukee is fourth in the NBA in scoring margin, at +3.9, while New York is 21st at -1.1. It might not be by a wide margin but we expect the Bucks to cover.

Prediction: Bucks -3.5 (-109)

Over/Under analysis

As they are against the spread, the Knicks and Bucks have similar O/U marks on the year with Milwaukee 11-16 and New York 12-14. 

Milwaukee can dominate opponents defensively and has held its opponent under 105 points in 13 games this season. On offense, the Bucks largely operate in the half-court, sitting in the middle of the league in transition buckets. Milwaukee is an analytically sound team that prioritizes points from 3-point range and at the rim but it's also one that is based on efficiency, not opportunity.

The Knicks' offense, meanwhile, has stumbled into darkness this season. A breakout season from Julius Randle powered them last year but he is back to where he was in his first season in New York this year, an efficient iso scorer. R.J. Barrett, too, is playing as poorly as he did as a rookie. All told, New York's offense is the worst possible combination of a lack of shooting and a lack of creation, making everything painfully difficult. 

The matchup has us leaning toward the Under. Add in the Sunday afternoon in New York City — after a night off — and it's the choice. 

Prediction: Under 217 (-108)

Best bet

These teams met twice within a week in early November, and at least in the scoring department, Giannis Antetokounmpo was relatively contained scoring 25 and then 15 points. New York didn't, however, contain Antetokounmpo on the glass, with the reigning NBA Finals MVP pulling down 15 boards in the most recent clash.

Antetokounmpo is averaging the third-most rebounds per game of his storied career, with 11.8 coming into Sunday. With center Brook Lopez out indefinitely, Giannis has taken on a greater role in finishing possessions.

While the Knicks are among the league's best rebounding teams, they don't have anyone to compete with the length and physicality of Antetokounmpo on the glass. Julius Randle and Nerlens Noel's rebounding numbers are down from last year, while Mitchell Robinson — in theory, the one whose length could challenge Giannis — has seen his minutes decrease significantly over the past month. 

Antetokounmpo gets what he wants pretty much anytime he's on the floor and on Sunday, he'll feast on the glass.

Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 11.5 rebounds (-135)

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