Bucks vs Lakers Picks and Predictions: Giannis Carves Up New-Look Lake Show

With the shocking trade of Kevin Durant, the NBA title odds have drastically shifted overnight, but the Phoenix Suns weren’t the only ones to make a major trade yesterday.

The Los Angeles Lakers finally admitted defeat with the Russell Westbrook experiment, trading him for a package including D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, and Jared Vanderbilt.

That trio will face a baptism by fire as the Lakers' first opponent is none other than the vaunted Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday, February 9.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Lakers believe Giannis will pick apart a Lakers team that hasn’t had time to prepare for him properly.

Bucks vs Lakers best odds

Bucks vs Lakers picks and predictions

There are three fundamentals when it comes to defending Giannis Antetokounmpo: discipline, effort, and cohesion.

Every team in the NBA works to defend Giannis in more or less the same fashion: as soon as he catches the ball live in transition, the opposing team has to backpedal and form a wall around the paint, closing any gaps that the Greek Freak might power through and score.

At the same time, those on the edge of the wall have to be close enough to their man on the corner to close out and prevent an open corner three if Giannis dishes it out at the last second. 

This is a delicate art, and one that requires each member of the team to do their part in tandem with the others, any single weak link folds the whole project. This is tiring, unglamorous work, and for your good effort, you might just have to eat a charge by one of the NBA’s strongest players to complete the possession.

It’s the engine that makes the Milwaukee Bucks’ offense work, and it’s one that recent iterations of the Los Angeles Lakers have struggled with mightily. Giannis has eclipsed 40 points in all three of his most recent games against the Lakers and is shooting north of 76% from the field because the Lakers are one of the worst defensive transition teams in the NBA.

L.A. allows a staggering four added points per 100 possessions in transition, per Cleaning the Glass, a mark only exceeded by the Houston Rockets for its ineptitude. Whether off steals or live rebounds, the Lakers just get beat back by the opposition far too often. They’re also in the Bottom 10 in opponent transition frequency, meaning opposing teams are in position to capitalize on their poor effort a lot.

That spells death against Giannis, and it’s a big piece of why he’s had L.A.’s number in recent years. It’s also one thing that L.A.’s trade will not help in the short term. Not only are the trio of D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, and Jared Vanderbilt fairly small, they don’t have the on-court time to gel and prepare for the Freak that is so desperately needed.

The Lakers’ defense has been scattershot at the best of times, and adding three rotation cogs to the lineup without so much as time for a real practice is going to make them easy prey for Giannis on Thursday.

My best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 33.5 points (-120)

Bucks vs Lakers spread analysis

Evaluating a new cast of characters is always a daunting task, but one thing can be certain. Trading Russell Westbrook is addition by subtraction, regardless of how his immediate replacement ends up playing. Westbrook was garnering a puzzling amount of buzz for the Sixth Man of the Year award, but the reality of his play was incredibly damaging to L.A.

The Lakers were 5.3 points worse on defense with Russ on the court, and his 98.7 points per 100 shot attempts made him one of the worst high-volume scorers in the NBA. Those possessions filtering out to LeBron, AD, and other role players spotting up should improve the Lakers' offense.

With the additions of Russell, Beasley, and Vanderbilt, suddenly L.A. has depth, shooting, and defense to surround their twin stars. That depth matters as the Lakers were 1-4 against the spread in their last five games overall, as well as 0-4 in their previous four games played on a single day of rest. The Lakers got younger and have the ability to share the minutes burden more effectively with this move. 

But the Bucks are really finding their groove of late. They’ve won eight straight since Khris Middleton returned to the lineup and have been smoking the NBA’s bottom feeders. They’re 5-1 ATS in their last six games against losing teams. I’m expecting this Lakers team to be better than the last one, but I’d still lean toward Milwaukee at -6.

Bucks vs Lakers Over/Under analysis

Trends are again hard to parse with the Lakers so fundamentally different now than the last time they played. With the added shooting that Beasley and Russell bring to the table, they should eventually be dynamite on offense.

The Bucks also aggressively allow opponent 3-point shooting to clog up the paint, and the Lakers finally have the weapons to actually make them feel the pain of that tradeoff, but I’m not expecting that transformation to happen overnight.

What I do expect is that Milwaukee is going to tear through this Lakers' defense like tissue paper. While it was obscured by LeBron James ultimately capturing the scoring record, the Lakers' defense against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday was inexcusably bad. Anthony Davis looked totally disinterested in the game and L.A. just conceded so many open shots right at the rim. 

A 240-point total is large, but in this eight-game win streak, Milwaukee has had some gaudy offensive performances including two games where they scored 147 and 150 points. 

Even though he’s still on a minutes restriction, Middleton’s return has pushed the Bucks’ offense right back to the level they were when they won the title.

Bucks vs Lakers betting trend to know

The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing straight-up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Lakers.

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