Bucks vs Mavericks Picks and Predictions: Brunson Helps Keep Dallas Close

The Dallas Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic when they host the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday, but the Mavs earned a 114-102 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves without their star player on Tuesday. Now, this group will look to knock off the defending champs. 

Will Milwaukee roll into Dallas and earn a blowout win? You’ll have to keep reading our Bucks vs. Mavericks NBA picks and predictions for Thursday, December 23 to find out.  

Bucks vs Mavericks odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding who will actually be out there in this game, but the Bucks opened as 4.5-point favorites and are laying either 4.5 or 5 everywhere. The total opened at 211 and is now between 209 and 211.  

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Bucks vs Mavericks predictions

• Prediction: Mavs +5 (-108)
• Prediction: Under 211 (-110)
• Best bet: Under 211 (-110)

Predictions made on 12/23/2021 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Bucks vs Mavericks game info

• Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
• Date: Thursday, December 23, 2021
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBA TV, TSN4

Bucks vs Mavericks betting preview

Injuries

Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo F (Out), Sandro Mamukelashvili C (Questionable), Bobby Portis F (Out), Brook Lopez C (Out), Donte DiVincenzo G (Out).
Mavericks: Luka Doncic F (Out), Kristaps Porzingis F (Questionable), Tim Hardaway Jr. G (Out), Maxi Kleber F (Out), Josh Green F (Out), Reggie Bullock G (Out), Willie Cauley-Stein C (Out), Trey Burke G (Out). 
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-1 in Dallas’ last seven home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Mavericks.

Bucks vs Mavericks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Mavericks might be without Doncic in this game, but they’ll at least be facing a Bucks team that will not have Giannis tonight. That makes things a lot more manageable for Dallas, as Milwaukee will now have to lean heavily on Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton. Both players are obviously excellent, but they’re stretched thinner when not flanking an MVP-caliber player.

Dallas has Dorian Finney-Smith to deploy as a defender on Middleton, and that could be a tough matchup for Milwaukee’s forward. Finney-Smith is a very good defender and has the length to contest a lot of Middleton’s shots. It won’t be a flawless defensive performance, but it should make a big difference if he’s able to make Middleton work. 

The Mavericks also have Jalen Brunson, who has been playing out of his mind lately. Brunson had 28 points, six assists, three steals and a block in the win over the Timberwolves the other night. It wouldn’t be too surprising if he found a way to hold his own against Holiday in tonight’s game. That would make it very hard for the Bucks to cover, as the rest of Dallas’ role players should be able to step things up in front of their home fans. 

Frank Ntilikina is another player to keep an eye on here. Kidd could use Ntilikina on Holiday in this game, and the Mavericks guard is capable of locking up whoever he faces on any given night. 

Prediction: Mavs +5 (-108) 

Over/Under analysis

With the way the Mavericks are built right now, this isn’t a team that is going to want to get into an up-and-down affair. Dallas is currently starting Ntilikina and Finney-Smith, who are both guys that like to get after it on the defensive end. Meanwhile, Brunson doesn’t play at a very quick pace. He likes to walk the ball up the floor and then use his strength to body opposing point guards. That doesn’t exactly play into this game turning into a track meet. 

The Under is also 4-1 in Milwaukee’s last five games, so this isn’t a team that is playing in a lot of high-scoring games. On top of that, the Under is also 20-7 in the Bucks’ last 27 games in which they’re playing the second night of a back-to-back. 

Prediction: Under 211 (-110) 

Best bet

The Mavericks might be coming off back-to-back Overs, but they had gone Under the total in eight consecutive games before that. This is very much a team that plays in low-scoring games under Kidd. And without Doncic in the lineup, this group is going to need to slow things down and focus primarily on keeping the pace from quickening too much. 

Over the last two seasons, the Under is 13-4 when the Mavericks are playing as home underdogs. It’s also 32-13 in general when Dallas is getting points in that span. Overall, it’s just hard to imagine these teams putting up a ton of points in this one. There will be a lot of players missing that are capable of getting buckets in bunches. 

Pick: Under 211 (-110)

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