The top two contenders in the Eastern Conference clash on Martin Luther King Day when the Milwaukee Bucks visit the Brooklyn Nets on Monday.
The Nets’ newly acquired superstar, James Harden, had one hell of a debut Saturday, registering a triple-double in Brooklyn’s victory over the Orlando Magic. The Nets have now won three straight, despite missing guard Kyrie Irving, and enter Monday as a 2.5-point NBA betting underdog, with the total set at 239.5.
These are our NBA free picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Nets on January 18.
Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets Betting Preview
Injuries
Bucks: None to report.
Nets: Kyrie Irving G (Out), Spencer Dinwiddie G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Nets.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
It’s tough the gauge the new-look Nets after just one game with Harden in the lineup, especially with that effort coming against a short-handed Orlando backcourt. But there’s no denying the damage Brooklyn can do with the former MVP in the mix.
Brooklyn shot the ball exceptionally well Saturday night, hitting almost 54 percent from the field and knocking down 16 3-pointers—with 10 of those triples coming in the second half. Harden kick-started that 70-point effort in the final two quarters, getting more aggressive with the basketball as he cozied up to his new teammates. He not only scored 24 of his 32 points in the second half but also dished out seven assists for open looks.
Harden makes up for Irving’s absence as a distributor (Irving is out of COVID protocol but is not expected to return Monday) and immediately creates space for Kevin Durant, who has been going all out with Kyrie MIA, averaging 34.5 points in three outings since returning from his own COVID absence.
That dynamic duo gets a tough test in the reigning Eastern Conference kings on MLK Day. Milwaukee is coming off a close win over the Dallas Mavericks at home, blowing a 14-point lead and needing some late triples to pull away for a 112-109 victory. That extended its four-game winning streak, but marked the second straight outing in which the Bucks failed to cover as lofty favorites (-8 and -10.5 the last two games).
Milwaukee is just 2-4 ATS on the road to start the season, allowing host teams to put up 111.3 points per game on over 46 percent shooting. However, those road stops weren’t against the strongest offensive teams (Boston was the toughest and scored 122 points in the opener) and nothing comes close to the firepower of the reunited combo of Harden and Durant.
Brooklyn will pick up where it left off in the second half of Saturday’s showcase and stake its claim in the Eastern Conference race Monday night.
PREDICTION: Brooklyn +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Bucks have stayed below the total in each game of this current winning streak, limiting opponents to only 99.8 points on 42.5 percent shooting per contest. But, as mentioned above, the level of competition hasn’t been that tough. Even Dallas is mired in a slow start to 2020-21, scoring less than 110 points per contest.
Brooklyn is going to get big production from Harden and Durant, who combined for 74 of the team’s 122 points in the win against the Magic, but has capable role players who’ll benefit from plenty of space. Joe Harris hit 4 of 6 looks from distance and scored 17 points on Saturday while Jeff Green broke double digits (10 points) for just the third time this season.
Milwaukee is going to need an extra helping of offense from its standouts to keep pace. The Bucks haven’t been shy about shooting the ball (sitting fourth in average 3-point attempts) and rank second in 3-point percentage (41.1 percent) in the NBA. And you know Brooklyn dipped a couple of ticks in defensive intensity with Harden on board.
The Bucks should also be able to manufacture points off turnovers as well, scoring almost 18 points per game off their opponents’ mistakes on the year. While Harden lifts this Brooklyn attack, he’s a primary ballhandler learning a new system with new teammates. That actuated to nine turnovers from him and 19 total turnovers for the Nets Saturday.
PREDICTION: Over 239.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
The spotlight will be on Durant and Harden, but Giannis Antetokounmpo will not be outdone. The reigning NBA MVP always seems to rise to the challenge in these big meetings and has plenty to prove after a bad night from the stripe versus Dallas.
Antetokounmpo scored 31 points with nine rebounds against the Mavs, but had just one assist (well below his average of 5.2 per game) and made just one of his 10 free-throw attempts—leaving plenty of points on the table to the dismay of Bucks bettors laying the eight points.
As part of the four-team Harden deal, the Nets sent top interior defender Jarrett Allen to Cleveland, leaving Brooklyn with veteran center DeAndre Jordan and the 6-foot-8 Green to protect the rim. Neither can keep pace with Antetokounmpo when he drags them outside and the Nets don’t want Durant expending all his energy on the defensive end chasing around Giannis.
We like Antetokounmpo to outshine Brooklyn’s stars in the stat sheet, just not the scoreboard.
PREDICTION: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 46.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)
Bucks vs Nets Betting Card
- Brooklyn +2.5(-110)
- Over 239.5 (-110)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 46.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)
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