The Milwaukee Bucks find themselves in a precarious position on April 28, taking on the Indiana Pacers down 2-1 as double-digit underdogs without Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard in the lineup.
My Bucks vs Pacers predictions won't play contrarian, which is why the home team winning big highlights my NBA picks.
Bucks vs Pacers predictions
My best bet
Pacers -9.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Milwaukee Bucks are facing down the barrel of their second straight first-round exit and potentially their third straight year without a conference finals appearance. But, of course, injuries have been the main culprit this time around.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has yet to suit up and is apparently still quite a ways away. Khris Middleton suffered a sprained ankle early in Game 2 but gutted out a 42-point performance that nearly single-handedly won the Bucks Game 3. And Damian Lillard now has suffered an Achilles injury that has taken him out of Game 4.
Milwaukee now has to rely on Bobby Portis, who has been a disproportionate defensive liability relative to any offensive spark he has provided. Brook Lopez came alive in Game 2 with five three-pointers, but like Portis, has been a defensive liability against the likes of Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner.
And Doc Rivers has begun to show his true colors as an incapable coach. Despite clear defensive perimeter proficiency from youngsters AJ Green and Andre Jackson Jr, the pair logged just a combined six minutes in Game 3.
Pacers players shot 1-of-14 when defended by Andre Jackson Jr. or AJ Green in Game 3.
— Dalton Sell (@sell_dalton) April 27, 2024
That included 0-of-10 against Jackson.
I don’t know what more you need to see to make their rotation spots permanent.
If Rivers fails to make serious pivots in his rotations and chooses to lean on his regulars, who all played 40 minutes just two nights ago, then the Bucks will be in for a really long night in Indiana.
Bucks vs Pacers same-game parlay (SGP)
Pacers -9.5
Aaron Nesmith Over 12.5 points
Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 points
Aaron Nesmith remains a screaming buy. Nesmith was given a lot of offensive involvement in Game 3, shooting 13 times total, which included seven 3-pointers. He managed to make just three shots total (including just one three), yet still went over his total of 11.5.
For Game 4, he's been marked up to just 12.5 points, a total he has eclipsed in ten of his last 17 home games.
Another player who should see an uptick in scoring, given their usage, is Tyrese Haliburton, who has had a quiet series thus far. To his credit, he logged 18 points in Game 3 compared to the 21 total points he logged in the first two games, and he was definitely more trigger happy as well, with 22 shot attempts to the 17 across the first two.
If he can manage to have more shots fall in Game 4 (he went just 8-for-22 from the field, including 1-12 from three), he should fly past his 17.5 total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Bucks vs Pacers odds
Bucks vs Pacers live odds
Get the latest Bucks vs Pacers NBA playoff odds for Game 4.
Bucks vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee +6.5 (-106) | Indiana -6.5 (-104)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +215 | Indiana -245)
- Over/Under: Over 223 (+103) | Under (-116)
Bucks vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
- After opening as -6.5-point faves, the Pacers have jumped up to -9.5 following the Lillard news.
- The Pacers are 45-38-3 ATS the spread this year, while Milwaukee is just 37-47-1.
- After the Lillard injury news, the total has plummeted from 223 to 215.5 at most books.
Bucks vs Pacers trend
The Pacers are 17-13 ATS as home favorites this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Pacers.
Bucks vs Pacers game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indiana, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-28-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Bucks vs Pacers latest injuries
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