Although Luka Doncic remains sidelined and Kyrie Irving is questionable for tonight's matchup against the Denver Nuggets, this spread hasn't tightened nearly enough, and my Nuggets vs. Mavericks predictions will side with Dallas as a home underdog.
Read more in my NBA picks for Tuesday, January 14, with tip-off scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET.
Nuggets vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Mavericks +3.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
These two-game series have slowly grown on much of the NBA. Coaches view them as “mini baseball series” or “mini postseason series” and use them as chances to adjust specifically to an opponent, more of a rarity in the regular season than casual fans realize. Players see them as a chance to get more genuine rest and perhaps exact some revenge quicker than usual.
The Dallas Mavericks are the ones looking for revenge tonight, having lost to the Denver Nuggets 112-101 on Sunday. This spread is two points closer than that one, and that is assuredly not just because of an intangible vengeance thought. Logically, it reflects a real possibility that Kyrie Irving plays, listed as questionable with an illness.
Irving did not play Sunday, while Nikola Jokic did for Denver. Neither team shot well, the Nuggets instead thriving on the boards, outrebounding the Mavericks 55 to 37.
Dallas will adjust to that, as Jason Kidd will make it clear to Dereck Lively II that he needs to do better than six rebounds, just as PJ Washington needs to find more than five.
That emphasis alone could be enough to keep the Mavs tighter in this game, but the return of Irving — not assured, but possible — should be the clinching thought to this handicap. As good as Irving is, the bigger piece of his return is that it cuts into Spencer Dinwiddie’s minutes.
Four Dallas starters had positive plus-minus numbers on Sunday, led by Naji Marshall’s +16. Meanwhile, Dinwiddie was a -17, going 4-of-13 from the field. Irving’s lessening of Dinwiddie’s time will be a Mavericks’ boon.
Nuggets vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Mavericks +3.5
Dereck Lively II Over 8.5 points
Dereck Lively II Over 8.5 rebounds
Irving’s return would create more looks for Lively at the rim, one of the best lob threats in the NBA. Even without Irving, Lively went 6-of-8 for 14 points on Sunday.
Lively’s plus-minus of +5 on Sunday was not what cost Dallas, but he could have played better, and the Mavericks should look for that tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Nuggets vs Mavericks odds
Nuggets vs Mavericks live odds
Nuggets vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Denver -5.5 | Dallas +5.5
- Moneyline: Denver -220 | Dallas +180
- Over/Under: Over 229.5 | Under 229.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Nuggets vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Nuggets opened as 5.5-point favorites on Monday evening, a number that fell to -4.5 on Monday night and then to -4 by sunrise. That move alone suggests Irving may play tonight.
- Tuesday saw this line waffle a bit, settling at -3.5 by the end of the morning.
- This total opened at 229.5, notably lower than Sunday’s closing number of 232, then slowly rising overnight to 233 and to 234.5 on Tuesday morning.
- That climbing total may be further evidence of Irving suiting up.
Nuggets vs Mavericks trend
This is the fourth two-game series of Denver’s season and the second of Dallas’s. In all four previous moments, the team that lost the first game ATS ended up covering the second contest. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Nuggets vs Mavericks
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-14-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Nuggets vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
