Bulls vs 76ers Picks and Predictions: Vucevic Attacks Embiid's Void

After a slow start, the Philadelphia 76ers have scraped and clawed their way up the ranks of the Eastern Conference and now sit just three games back of the Boston Celtics and the No.1 overall seed. Their ambitions were dealt a blow however when it was announced that Joel Embiid would miss their most recent game against the Indiana Pacers with foot soreness. 

Evidently, the issue persists, as the 76ers are scheduled to once again be without their star center and MVP candidate as they face off against fellow Eastern Conference hopefuls, the Chicago Bulls, on Friday, January 6. The Bulls are coming off an impressive win against the Brooklyn Nets but are still seeking consistency in what has been a letdown season.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Bulls vs. 76ers believe that Nikola Vucevic is well-positioned to capitalize on what remains of the Philadelphia frontcourt rotation.

Bulls vs 76ers best odds

Bulls vs 76ers picks and predictions

The Philadelphia 76ers might have a Nikola Vucevic problem. Joel Embiid is used to terrorizing the Bulls' frontcourt, but in his absence, the 76ers are forced into the smallest of all small ball. 

PJ Tucker — the 76ers’ nominal starting center — is just 6-foot-5. Montrezl Harrell, who played 28 minutes at center in an elevated backup role last game is just 6-foot-7. 

Vucevic is a legit 7-footer, who while not the most physically imposing, should be able to leverage his height and unique skillset to dominate the 76ers’ frontcourt defense. Vucevic has had recent success against smaller defenders, and unlike say Kristaps Porzingis, Vuc is comfortable backing down or posting up smaller opponents and scoring over the top. 

Harrell has neither the physical attributes nor the commitment necessary to stick with Vuc either in the post or on the perimeter. He’s not a great post defender, meaning it’s a five-alarm fire any time Vuc catches a ball with a seal in the paint. But he’s also not a great closeout big, and if the Bulls so desire, Vucevic pick and pops out of either a Zach LaVine or DeMar DeRozan-led PNR should be fruitful.

Vucevic is much maligned, but his spacing and partnership with DeRozan are a big part of what has led to the latter’s late-career renaissance. While his usage is downplaying a complementary role next to the Bulls' guards, he’s quietly scoring at the most efficient rate of his career. 

His 58.8% on twos is a career-best, as is his 85.2% on free throws. While he doesn’t overpower opponents near the basket, he’s a deadly midrange jump shooter, scoring north of 54% on all midrange shots per Cleaning the Glass.

Vuc is averaging 17.2 points over his last five games and would have hit the Over at this number in seven of his last 10 outings. This Philadelphia team has been playing at the level of a Bottom-10 defense for a few games even before Embiid went out with a foot injury, but without him, they should struggle to contain Chicago’s Montenegrin big man.

My best bet: Nikola Vucevic Over 16.5 points (-115)

Bulls vs 76ers spread analysis

The Chicago Bulls are a hard team to read. They’ve beaten both the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics twice this season, but they’ve also piled up horrific losses to the league's many have-nots. Expectations eventually turned so sharply against the Bulls during their skid that they’ve ended up consistently outperforming the spread over the past two weeks.

And in this stretch, they’ve been competing with (and frequently beating) high-quality opponents.  They’re 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games against winning teams, with wins against the Brooklyn Nets, Milwaukee Bucks, and New York Knicks in that span. 

Philadelphia has been doing what a contender ought to do, which is beat the bad teams in convincing fashion. They’re 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a losing road record, which spells trouble for Chicago. They’re also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall, but it’s hard to know just how much to make of that given Embiid’s absence. I need to see more from the James Harden and Tyrese Maxey one-two punch before I’m willing to lay Philadelphia at -5.

Bulls vs 76ers Over/Under analysis

It’s both amazing and utterly unsurprising the instant transformation that takes place in Philadelphia when James Harden takes over in Joel Embiid’s absence. Anchored by Embiid, the 76ers have earned their 23-14 record on the back of a Top-5 defense and a slightly above-average offense. But when Embiid sits and they go to Harden-ball, they flip into the exact opposite style of team.

The starting lineup that the 76ers rolled out for their first game without Embiid was Harden, Maxey, De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris, and Tucker. In 125 possessions played that group has a 128 offensive rating, making it one of the truly elite scoring units in the league. 

It’s also tiny and prone to abuse by both DeRozan and LaVine. Melton and Tucker can hold their own defensively, but nobody in that group can clean up mistakes on the back line the way that Embiid does. Indeed, nobody on the 76ers roster can play that role from the four or five spot, meaning the 76ers' only viable path to victory is to outscore the Bulls. Alex Caruso is also currently questionable, and if he misses the game then Harden and Maxey should have free reign to cause havoc for the Bulls' defense. 

Taken together the Over is 11-3 in the last 14 games these two teams have played. At 228 I’d lean toward another Over tonight.

Bulls vs 76ers betting trend to know

Over is 6-1 in 76ers’ last seven overall, and 5-2 in Bulls’ last seven overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Bulls vs. 76ers.

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