It’s a low-key NBA Saturday with March Madness in full swing, but the league’s five-game slate still features many teams with playoff hopes, including the Bucks, Lakers, and Warriors.
With lottery-bound teams creating some write-offs on the NBA player props market, I’m sticking with big names for my top three picks ahead of the March 22 action.
Best NBA player props today
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Green Over 17.5 points + rebounds (-120 at bet365) -
Antetokounmpo Under 43.5 point + rebounds (+100 at bet365) -
Reaves Over 20.5 points (-115 at bet365)
NBA player props for March 22
Draymond Green Over 17.5 points + rebounds (-120 at bet365)
No one expects Draymond Green’s 21-point effort against the Raptors to be the new normal for the Golden State Warriors, but he’s primed for even more responsibility with Steph Curry sidelined.
While Green can’t replace Curry’s scoring — even though he sunk five 3-pointers against Toronto — his veteran savvy next to Jimmy Butler is Golden State’s best chance of staying above the play-in line, and I like the Over on this points + rebounds combo prop tonight against the Atlanta Hawks.
Green has gone past this number in seven of his last 13 games, and his field goal attempts are up, including four outings with double-digit shots this month. The Hawks will be happy to get into a shootout, which should open the door for some trademark Draymond end-to-end surges.
His work on the glass could deliver at least half of this O/U total. Green is averaging 7.3 rebounds per game in March, and he’s had 9+ boards on four occasions so far this month. He’s been vocal about being in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation, and I see his effort plays being an X-factor for the Warriors tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 43.5 points + rebounds (+100 at bet365)
With Damian Lillard ruled out, Giannis Antetokounmpo will carry the scoring load for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight against the Sacramento Kings. That might sound like a recipe for Giannis to be a one-man wrecking crew, but I’m going the other way and taking the Under on his points + rebounds total, which offers nice value at even odds.
Antetokounmpo will surely see a crowd of Sacramento jerseys tonight, given the limited other threats on this Bucks roster, and he’s hit the Under on this 43.5 line in six of his past seven outings. Giannis’ season averages fall below this total, too, at 30.2 ppg and 11.9 rpg.
Milwaukee is still jockeying for position in the East standings, but the Kings have plenty to play for, too, and took down the Cavaliers this week. If the Sacramento offense shows up and forces the Bucks to play a lot of half-court possessions, that’s bad news for Giannis and the knee issue he’s playing through.
Giannis will get his points, particularly in transition and at the free throw line, but I see him putting together a solid stat line without hitting the heights of this massive number.
Austin Reaves Over 20.5 points (-115 at bet365)
LeBron James could return for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight, though it’s tough to see the case for rushing him back to face an overmatched Chicago Bulls team. Either way, Austin Reaves is the L.A. starter that I’m targeting in the player props market.
Reaves has been on a tear lately, thriving next to Luka Doncic and averaging 29 PPG through his last five games, including a 37-point explosion against the Denver Nuggets last week.
He looks ready to be a steady No.3 option for the Lakers in the postseason, and I’m buying into the recent production with the Over here on 20.5 points – especially given his uptick in touches, with 17.5 FGA so far this month and at least 36 minutes in each of his last seven outings. He’s also knocking down his 3-pointers at a 38% clip in March.
The Bulls have allowed 116+ points in three of their past four contests, and Reaves has scored 22+ points in five straight games. I see him extending that streak tonight.
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NBA odds today
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