Bulls vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Miami Stifles Struggling LaVine

The Chicago Bulls are in a tailspin. What started as a few bad games has snowballed into a franchise-level emergency and a fanbase revolt, with hard questions being asked of every player, coach, and front-office manager. 

They followed up a pair of discouraging losses at home to the New York Knicks with a game where they allowed the severely shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves to drop 150 points on them. It’s tempting to say they’ve hit rock bottom, but with a game against the ruthless Miami Heat tonight, things can always get worse.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Bulls vs. Heat believe that Chicago’s woes will continue as Miami’s defense puts a damper on Zach LaVine’s scoring.

Bulls vs Heat best odds

Bulls vs Heat picks and predictions

After putting together a pair of All-Star caliber seasons in back-to-back years, the start to the 2022-23 campaign has been a resolute disappointment for Zach LaVine. LaVine has a rare combination of shooting touch and raw jump-out-of-the-gym athleticism that makes him an incredibly gifted scorer. But a series of knee injuries seem to have sapped some of his verve inside the arc, and he’s now playing below the rim and on the outskirts of the paint more than ever.

Year over year, LaVine has seen a steady decline in his shot attempts at the rim, and his rate this season would be a career-low rate. That’s contributed to his foul drawing also falling off a cliff. At 3.9 free throw attempts per game, he’s getting to the line at the lowest rate since he joined the Bulls.

His points per shot attempt have fallen all the way to the 45th percentile among wings per Cleaning the Glass, from a high of the 94th percentile two seasons ago.

He’s still a good scorer by any metric, but all these things taken together have seen his efficiency and raw scoring production drop precipitously. He’s down to just 21.8 points per game on the season, and if this decline continues, his time as an All-Star-level wing scorer might prove to be mercilessly short.

It doesn’t help that the Bulls' offensive spacing gives him so little room to work with. DeMar DeRozan is not a 3-point shooter and neither is Alex Caruso. Nikola Vu?evi? is supposed to be a plus shooter and spacer, but opposing teams do not respect his shot to the level that he generates much gravity. LaVine is often working in crowds, and with a less than cooperative knee, expending enormous effort to make something out of nothing.

The Heat are also a nightmare to play for opposing guards. While Trae Young has become the poster boy for the difficulties they can give to ballhandlers with their aggressive switching defense, most guards struggle against them. Miami is routinely one of the best defensive playmaking teams in the NBA, and that’s no different this season, as it ranks second overall in opponent turnovers forced per possession.

The Heat's switching scheme also forces opposing teams into a lot of isolation basketball. In theory, that’s something that a LaVine and DeRozan team should excel at beating. But LaVine has been just middling as an isolation scorer this season, in the 59th percentile as an isolation scorer per Synergy.

Weak spacing, a team in a psychological rut, and a disruptive switching defense are all reasons that I’m making this bet my favorite on the board for Tuesday’s matchup.

My best bet: Zach LaVine Under 22.5 points (-106)

Bulls vs Heat spread analysis

The opening line of Anna Karenina reads, "Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way." That could easily be a metaphor for the Bulls right now, who seem to find new, never before seen ways to lose in embarrassing fashion of late. That’s not an exaggeration. Their recent loss to Minnesota was a franchise-record scoring night for the Wolves and a new nadir for a listless Chicago franchise.

They Bulls are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine and 1-6 ATS in their last seven against winning teams. 

They look completely lost on both ends, their morale is broken, and it’s clear they’ve stopped playing with belief in one another. There aren’t many teams in the NBA anymore that they can cover against, let alone beat, and the end truly may be nigh for this version of the team.

That should make Miami -5.5 a sure bet right? Maybe not. If there’s anything that gives me pause, it’s that the Heat have been unusually poor against the spread at home, going 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 at FTX Arena. I might just be giving the Bulls too much credit again, but I do have concerns about this Heat offense.

Bulls vs Heat Over/Under analysis

The Bulls were hovering around 10th in defensive rating before they coughed up 150 points to the Wolves, but it seems that team no longer exists. I was willing to give Chicago some leeway earlier because it's been so unlucky in clutch games, but appearance has now become reality. This defense no longer believes in itself or its basic principles enough to muster the requisite effort to stop even bad offenses. 

And that’s significant to this 224 Total because Miami has been a downright rotten offense of late. The Heat are the 25th-ranked offense on the season despite a trio of strong offensive players in Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo. The issue for the Heat is that their supporting cast of found-parts players like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and even the recently dusted-off Duncan Robinson are all massively underperforming as scorers.

But their poor offense and resolute defense have consistently anchored them to low totals that they’ve then gone on to exceed, particularly at home, where the Over is 8-1 in the Heat's last nine games.

Bulls vs Heat betting trend to know

The Over is 8-1 in the Heat's last nine home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bulls vs. Heat.

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