Bulls vs Raptors Picks and Predictions: Highly Ranked Defenses Dominate

The Toronto Raptors are playing their third game in four days when they host the Chicago Bulls tonight.

Toronto is undergoing a youth movement this season and has been somewhat unpredictable through its first three games, and NBA betting lines have the Raps as slight home dogs against the Bulls, who are 3-0 after dramatically reshaping their roster in the offseason.

Here are our best free NBA picks and predictions for Bulls vs. Raptors on Monday, October 25, with tip-off set for 7:30 p.m. ET. 

Bulls vs Raptors odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The opening spread of Chicago -2.5 has seen early movement in favor of home Toronto, sitting at -1.5 as of 11 a.m. ET Monday morning. The total started at 213 and has ticked down a half-point to 212.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Bulls vs Raptors predictions

• Prediction: Bulls -1.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 212.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Scottie Barnes Over 20.5 points+rebounds (-105)

Predictions made on 10/25/2021 at 10:49 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Bulls vs Raptors game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Monday, October 25, 2021
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN, NBC Sports Chicago

Bulls vs Raptors betting preview

Injuries

Bulls: Coby White PG (Out).
Raptors: Yuta Watanabe PF (Out), Pascal Siakam SF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0 in the Bulls' last six road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bulls vs. Raptors.

Bulls vs Raptors picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Call it a rebuild, or a retool, or whatever you want, but the reality is this is not the Raptors we've gotten used to seeing over the past decade — this year's version is young, energetic, and scrappy... but has some major deficiencies.

Mainly, Toronto does not have a true point guard that can run a half-court offense, penetrate opposing defenses, and create open opportunities for teammates. It's resulted in the Raptors scoring the fewest points per game (11.0) generated from pick-and-rolls, the fourth-fewest ppg (17.0) from spot-up jump shots, and having the eighth-highest isolation shot frequency (8.8 percent) — with the fourth-worst isolation scoring frequency (32.3 percent) and a paltry 17.7 assists per contest (third-fewest).

The Raptors rely heavily on transition buckets — an NBA-high 23.2 percent of their offense comes in these up-tempo scenarios — powered by generating 11 steals per game, but those possessions might be difficult to come by against the Bulls tonight.

Chicago overhauled its roster in the offseason, notably bringing in Lonzo Ball, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, and Alex Caruso to go with Zach LaVine and Patrick Williams, and is off to a 3-0 start. Now, granted, those wins came against a lowly Pistons team (twice) and a Zion-less Pelicans squad, but the Bulls are a team that is designed to play any number of styles.

They're in the bottom half of the league in pace, happy to work a methodical offense that runs mainly through LaVine and DeRozan on the wings with Vucevic in the paint, resulting in 70.3 percent of their shots being 2-pointers — the most in the league. Chicago is efficient however, hitting 41.6 percent of its threes (third-best in the NBA), has the sixth-highest assist percentage, and when the Bulls do get in the open court, they convert, boasting the second-best transition scoring efficiency.

We haven't yet seen the Bulls against an actual good team, so it's hard to tell if they are legitimate or not. Thankfully for Chicago, the Raptors are not a good team either, so getting the more complete squad (Chicago) at a near pick'em seems like a solid play.

Prediction: Bulls -1.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

For as efficient the Chicago offense has been, what's even more impressive is how good the defense has been through the early going. The Bulls are sitting fourth in the NBA in defensive rating, fourth in blocks, fifth in steals, and seventh in opponent field-goal percentage. Again, yes, those numbers have been padded by facing poor offenses in Detroit and New Orleans, but the Raptors offense is firmly entrenched among the league's worst as well.

However, Toronto head coach Nick Nurse has always had the Raptors bring it on the defensive end, and hoo boy, they sure give it their all on every play. These young, scrappy Raps are just ahead of Chicago with a lower opponent FG% and 3PT%, give up the fourth-fewest second-chance points, and are sixth in defensive rating.

The Bulls are second in opponent ppg (94.0), while the Raptors are fourth at 94.7, with both teams also failing to crack 100 points offensively in two of their three games.

With the Under a combined 5-1 between the two teams this season, we expect to see another low-scoring fight on Monday night. 

Prediction: Under 212.5 (-110)

Best bet

When the Raptors drafted Florida State forward Scottie Barnes with the fourth-overall pick this year, they expected to get a high-energy, athletic wing that does a little bit of everything but struggles to shoot jumpers.

He's lived exactly up to that scouting report so far, averaging 18.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.7 apg, and shooting 20 percent from beyond the arc. More importantly for bettors, books have been slow to set his counting stat totals, as Barnes, points+rebounds+assists totals were 19.5, 17.5, and 21.5 through his first three games — numbers he easily went Over in each contest.

Tonight, Barnes' PRA is up to 22.5, sitting at -120 in most books, but we're actually more intrigued by just his points + rebounds total, which is 20.5 and can be found at -105.

The Raps rookie has yet to top two assists in any game, so he's been besting these prop totals strictly just by grabbing boards and scoring points. He's getting the minutes, so we know the opportunity to cash again will be there win or lose, and being able to isolate the stats that have been powering this prop — while getting better value — is a no-brainer for us.     

Pick: Scottie Barnes Over 20.5 points+rebounds (-105)

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