One roster of replacement-level players faces a team suddenly relying on them due to a rash of injuries at guard. Can the Thunder take advantage of this chance at a win thanks to the Bulls’ thinning ranks?
Here are our free NBA betting picks and predictions for the Bulls at the Thunder on January 24, with tip set for 8:00 p.m. ET.
Bulls vs Thunder odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Chicago opened as only a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday night, though that jumped to -2.5 by morning. It fell back to -1.5 around lunchtime. The total’s movement was more direct, opening at 214.5 and ticking up to 217 by midday Monday.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Bulls vs Thunder predictions
Predictions made on 01/24/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Bulls vs Thunder game info
• Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
• Date: Monday, January 24, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Oklahoma, NBCS-Chicago
Bulls vs Thunder betting preview
Injuries
Bulls: Lonzo Ball PG (Out), Zach LaVine PG (Questionable), Alex Caruso SG (Out), Derrick Jones Jr. SF (Out), Javonte Green SG (Questionable).
Thunder: Derrick Favors PF (Out), Vit Krejci PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Oklahoma City’s last four games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bulls vs. Thunder.
Bulls vs Thunder picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
It is a sorry reflection of the Thunder roster that the Bulls are favored on the road on the second half of a back-to-back while potentially missing three starting guards (Zach LaVine is questionable). When healthy, Oklahoma City’s roster is barely filled with NBA-quality players.
Maybe that comes across as harsh, and it certainly does not suggest where this handicap is going, but it is the broad reality. For context, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder in minutes played this year with 1,431. Among the team's top seven — players averaging at least 20 minutes per game and appearing in at least 28 games — are Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (970 minutes), Kenrich Williams (783), and Aaron Wiggins (611). Two second-round rookies and a journeyman forward are essentially the definition of “replacement-level players.”
Yet, those are the players Oklahoma City has relied on all season.
Why pick the Thunder tonight, then? Because the Bulls are on the second half of a road-trip back-to-back and won't be playing with a full backcourt.
This is a schedule loss, even in Oklahoma City. It is also a chance to wager on those replacement-level players who are getting the job done as often as not, at least in our pertinent terms. The Thunder have gone 6-3-1 against the spread in its last 10. Of course, it was an underdog in all 10 of those.
Chicago’s suddenly-active replacement players, however, have not been getting the job done at any outlandish rate. Since LaVine was injured in the opening minutes against the Warriors on Jan. 14, the Bulls are 3-3 ATS. Such should be expected when suddenly relying on Ayo Dosunmu (37.9 minutes per game in the last six games), Troy Brown Jr. (22.9), and Matt Thomas (20.4).
Dosunmu had a productive career at Illinois, and playing for Chicago undoubtedly means a lot for the Windy City native, but the second-round rookie should not be playing more minutes than DeMar DeRozan these days. The Bulls simply have no other choice.
That lack of options should make for a more even matchup than Oklahoma City is used to this season.
Prediction: Thunder +2 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
With all due respect to Thomas’ marksmanship — 54.5% on 3.7 3-point attempts per game in the last six — those names should not encourage faith in points tonight.
Dosunmu is actually playing with efficiency, boasting a 62.2 true-shooting percentage in the last 10 days, but he still scores only 11.0 points per game. That is too low for a primary ballhandler, especially when he is adding just five assists per game.
Brown’s true-shooting percentage of 44.1 belies the issue for Chicago right now. Without LaVine, Caruso, and Ball, the offense is simply too inconsistent.
An inconsistent offense has become the norm for the Thunder, averaging 95.8 points per game in their last four. Offensive explosions are few and far between for Oklahoma City. As much as the Bulls defense has struggled this season, this could still be a game where the first team to 100 wins. Though, there is a very good chance neither team touches triple digits.
Prediction: Under 217.5 (-110)
Best bet
Oklahoma City is on a five-game losing streak. It has lost 10 of its last 11, a streak that was broken only by playing the shorthanded Nets in Brooklyn.
A shorthanded opponent, though, is the common characteristic heading into tonight. The Bulls are tired - both mentally and physically - and they are running out of reliable ball-handlers.
The instinct is to doubt the Thunder at every turn but, sometimes, the counterintuitive bet is the best bet.
Pick: Thunder moneyline (+105)
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