Bulls vs Timberwolves Picks and Predictions: Chicago Piles On Minnesota's Struggles

Sunday, December 18 features a matchup between two NBA franchises at a crossroads. Both the Chicago Bulls and the Minnesota Timberwolves have massively disappointed this season, and unless they turn things around quickly, radical change is coming.

What version of these teams will we get? Will we see the appropriate level of desperation from two teams whose seasons are rapidly slipping away from them, or will one or both continue to succumb to listlessness and disarray when they hit some adversity?

Our NBA betting picks and predictions for the Bulls vs. Timberwolves believe that Chicago should be the strong favorite to cover today’s spread.

Bulls vs Timberwolves best odds

Bulls vs Timberwolves picks and predictions

The Timberwolves are a different team on any given night. Both in the mentality and the way they carry themselves, and with regards to who is actually able to play. In addition to Karl Anthony-Towns continuing to miss time, they’ve also been without D’Angelo Russell and Rudy Gobert in spots. It’s not clear if either Russell or Gobert will play in Sunday’s game against Chicago either.

As a result of all the injuries, Anthony Edwards has been forced into more of an on-ball playmaking role than he’s typically had in his young career. Those kinds of reps might be incredibly valuable for his development, but they’re also fairly suboptimal for a team that’s trying to win now.

It’s not that "Ant" is a bad passer or a turnover machine, but he hasn’t found a way to get his own scoring going while managing the team offense simultaneously just yet. The Bulls will happily throw Alex Caruso on him and double if necessary to force someone else on this team to score.

Chicago is coming off back-to-back desultory losses to the New York Knicks and has lost seven of its last ten. Perhaps even the most discouraging thing is that this tailspin has taken place while relatively healthy.

Yes, it's been without Lonzo Ball the entire season, but most NBA teams have suffered injuries to players at or above Lonzo’s level and done much better than this. If an injury to your third to fifth-best player is enough to sink your season, it’s fair to ask just how good you really were in the first place.

But while those two defeats have sent the Bulls' faithful into an existential tailspin, they’re not quite as bad as they appear. They were the victims of catching the wrong team at the wrong time. The Knicks' recent statistical profile suggests they are a much better team than it first seemed, and Chicago has been playing at a much higher level than the Wolves.

Minnesota has a -4.2 net rating over the last two weeks — the seventh worst in the NBA — and is underperforming against the spread by a whopping -.5.3 points on average. In that same span, the Bulls are playing at the rate of an average team, a -1.6 net rating that would be 16th leaguewide, and are flirting with a Top-10 defense. 

The fact Chicago is 11-17 and the Wolves 14-15 is not a reflection of team quality so much as luck. In contrast to last season, the Bulls are just drastically underperforming in clutch scenarios. They’re still the better, more complete team, even if a few last-second shots haven’t gone their way recently.

My best bet: Bulls -1.5 (-110 at bet365)

Bulls vs Timberwolves spread analysis

Both these squads have been dreadful against the spread this season. The Bulls are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games overall, which is not good by any measure. But Minnesota’s profile is even more troubling.

The Timberwolves are failing right when their advantages seem to be greatest, going 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. Perhaps even more damning is the degree to which the Wolve struggle against other bad teams. They’re just 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing record.

If there is a bright spot for Minnesota, it’s that its received impressive contributions from Naz Reid with Gobert and Towns both out. Kyle Anderson has also proven his worth as a savvy playmaker and two-way player. But the pieces of the team are so clunky no matter who is available, at least with Chicago we have actual evidence that its theory for the team can lead to consistent success (at least over the short term).

Bulls vs Timberwolves Over/Under analysis

Uncertainty around Rudy Gobert’s status has major implications for the total. Putting it flatly, if Gobert plays, then a total of 231 will be drastically too high, if he sits it becomes a reasonable number.

In Utah, Gobert was used for his roll gravity and as a pick-and-roll finisher to such great effect that whether he played or not didn’t usually impact the total as much as one might think. Despite his Defensive Player of the Year bonafide, he had a significant positive impact on the Jazz's offense as well as their defense. That hasn’t held true so far in Minnesota.

The Timberwolves are eight points better on defense with Rudy on the court this season, and an eye-gouging 9.6 points worse on offense. That’s begun to normalize recently, as the team has improved their process with him some and in part because Russell has been on a tear, but overall whether Gobert plays or not is still the single most important factor when considering the total at 231. 

Gobert’s presence is so destructive to the collective offense of a game right now that he can singlehandedly sink the Over.

Bulls vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

The Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Bulls vs. Timberwolves.

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