Cavaliers vs Thunder Picks and Predictions: Double the Fun for Giddey

If comparison is the thief of joy, as one Jeff Van Gundy so regularly reminds us on TNT broadcasts these days, then expectations are its equally unwelcome cousin. In a league seeing a drastic increase in parity, the weight of unmet expectations has ensured that few fan bases in the NBA are happy at this moment in time. But it just so happens that in tonight’s matchup between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Oklahoma City Thunder, we have two of the exceptions. 

The Cavaliers because they pulled off the trade of the offseason to land All-Star starter Donovan Mitchell, and the Thunder because a presumed tanking season has transformed into so much more than that. 

Our NBA picks and predictions for Cavaliers vs. Thunder for Friday, January 27 cast an eye on the development of Josh Giddey, and are banking on him to continue stuffing the stat sheet.

Cavaliers vs Thunder best odds

Cavaliers vs Thunder picks and predictions

The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the NBA’s feel-good stories this season. Despite losing No.2 overall pick Chet Holmgren to a season-ending injury before he could play a single minute of pro ball, they’ve eschewed any notions of tanking in favor of letting this young, fun team play to win on a nightly basis. The night-in, night-out heroics of soon-to-be first-time All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have fairly captured most of the headlines, but the development of Australian sophomore Josh Giddey has also been huge for the success of this Thunder team.

Giddey was taken sixth in the 2021 draft after being mocked in the late lottery, with questions surrounding his athleticism, scoring potential, and defense. But not at issue were his God-given abilities slinging the basketball, as he immediately entered the NBA as one of its best passers. He also proved quickly that he was an elite rebounder for his position. That Giddey is also a 6-foot-8 specimen who can survey the floor like LeBron made him an enticing prospect, whatever his supposed flaws.

But the concerns about his scoring were made manifest in Year 1. While few rookies are effective and efficient scorers, Giddey turned in one of the worst offensive seasons in the NBA. His 96 PSA (points per 100 shot attempts) was eighth percentile among all wings per Cleaning the Glass, and to call his perimeter shot a work in progress at 26.3% would be generous. Still, Giddey’s uncanny passing ability, feel for the game, and superb rebounding continued to intrigue. If he could figure out the scoring element, he could become a dynamic player.

Enter Chip Engelland, one of the most respected shooting coaches in the entire NBA. Engelland is known for success with — among many others — Kawhi Leonard, who came into the NBA as a total non-shooter. The Thunder poached Engelland from the San Antonio Spurs this summer, and his work with Giddey is already paying massive dividends.

Giddey’s eFG% has jumped from 46.5% to 51.9%, he’s shooting nearly 10% better from the free throw line, and his 3-pointer has jumped more than six percent so far this season. His mechanics, once stiff and inconsistent, are beginning to look fluid and repeatable. 

But it’s not just mechanical improvement. Giddey has developed skills that have given him the confidence to be a much more aggressive and effective player. In addition to finishing at the rim much better this season, he’s getting there about 10% more of the time.

Giddey is far from a finished product. His overall efficiency on the season isn’t outstanding, and his 3-point percentage (32.6%) is still well below average. But with the leap he’s taken this year, I’m certainly not betting against him.

And more to the point, now that he’s a competent scorer, his outrageous abilities as a passer and a rebounder are given all the more chances to shine. Giddey’s 18.2% defensive rebounding rate is 95th percentile among all forwards (where he spends the majority of his minutes per Cleaning the Glass, despite being listed as a shooting guard), and his 27.2% assist percentage leads all forwards. He already has six triple-doubles to his name, including two this season. 

The value bet tonight rests on his ability to record a double-double at +165. The Cavaliers play a two-big style which is great at locking down the paint, but their dearth of big wings means Giddey is either going to have a significant height advantage or a quickness advantage against whoever Cleveland decides to guard him with. The Cavs are also on a back-to-back, so Giddey should be just a step quicker to a loose ball or when passing to an open cutter.

Giddey has had either double-digit rebounds or assists five times in the last eight games and hasn’t had a single-digit scoring outing in all of January. A Giddey double-double is my favorite bet for today’s game.

My best bet: Josh Giddey double-double (+165)

Cavaliers vs Thunder spread analysis

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the best team against the spread this season, and it’s a trend that has continued to gather momentum even as oddsmakers have come to recognize that they’re a legitimate threat to make the play-in tournament. Despite the odds shortening against them, they’ve gone 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10.  In the past two weeks alone, they’ve outperformed the spread by +8.3 points per Cleaning the Glass, the best in the NBA in that span by a wide margin.

That consistency stands in stark contrast to the Cavaliers, who (recent win against the hapless Houston Rockets notwithstanding) have struggled mightily against the spread on the road this season. The Cavaliers are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win and have fared especially poorly on the road. The Thunder have been particularly merciless to teams of that nature, having gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

The reason this isn’t an automatic bet for the Thunder despite these significant trends and the rest disadvantage to Cleveland is that the Thunder have a serious issue matching up with big teams. They don’t have any traditional centers to speak of, and Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen could give them serious problems. Both added more than 20 points when these two played earlier in the season, and that was when the Thunder still had Aleksej Pokusevski available. 

Cavaliers vs Thunder Over/Under analysis

I think the 222.5 Total for Friday’s game is about as well set a number as I’ve seen this month. It seems minuscule when you see the gaudy numbers some teams are putting up recently, but there’s reason to think this matchup could be a bit of a slog. 

The Cavaliers' defense, third in the NBA this season, is a known quantity. Less well-known is that the Thunder have sneakily been creeping toward a Top-10 ranking on that side of the ball themselves. Over their last six games, their defense would rank seventh and the Under is 4-1 in OKC’s last five overall. For a team that plays zero traditional bigs or rim protectors, that’s damn impressive. 

Despite playing two star-caliber bigs, the Cavaliers generate most of their offense from their backcourt. Guard play relies on jump shooting, and jump shooting is notoriously difficult to rely on in back-to-back situations. Not all back-to-backs are created equal, and the Cavaliers did keep the minutes burden on their starters low last night by taking care of business against the Rockets early on. Still, Unders have cashed in five straight when the Cavaliers are playing on zero days’ rest.

Cavaliers vs Thunder betting trend to know

Thunder are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Thunder.

Cavaliers vs Thunder game info

Cavaliers vs Thunder key injuries

Pages related to this topic