Darius Garland and the Cleveland Cavaliers will make the trip to Target Center on Friday to take on Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find you the best bet for this matchup.
The Cleveland Cavaliers will be shorthanded on Friday when they take on the Minnesota Timberwolves, as Donovan Mitchell is out with a nasal fracture.
One of the Cavaliers' guards has stepped up in the absence of Mitchell, but find out why I'm actually playing an Under on his NBA player props in my free NBA picks for Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves on March 22.
Cavaliers vs Timberwolves odds
Cavaliers vs Timberwolves predictions
Caris LeVert has been on an absolute heater with his assists prop of late, going Over the total in nine straight games. Not only has LeVert been crushing the Over on his assists prop recently, but with Donovan Mitchell out the last two games, LeVert has dropped 11 and 12 dimes for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
However, tonight, I'm taking the Under on LeVert's assists prop against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
While LeVert has been cashing Overs left and right, his total has also been adjusting, and now we're at 6.5 with heavy juice on the Over (-148) for LeVert, when his total used to be at 4.5 nine games ago.
The sportsbooks aren't just giving away money on LeVert's assists prop each game; they are constantly adjusting the number relative to what is happening, and we want to attack the Under at this price.
LeVert is converting his potential assists at a high rate, which won't continue. If we look at his last two games, LeVert had 15 potential assists per game, ultimately converting to 11.5 dimes. Darius Garland also averaged 15 potential assists per game over the last two games, but it only resulted in eight actual assists.
Not only do I expect the conversion rate on LeVert's potential assists to come down, but a matchup with the Timberwolves could make water find its level relatively fast with LeVert. The Timberwolves are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and LeVert will most likely match up with Jaden McDaniels. Plus, if Rudy Gobert suits up and mans the paint, then the matchup becomes even more of a nightmare for the Cavs guard.
LeVert is projected to drop 6.3 dimes against the Timberwolves on Friday, which means we can price the Under 6.5 assists at -130, but it is available at Pinnacle at +110. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 19%.
My best bet: Caris LeVert Under 6.5 assists (+110 at Pinnacle)
Cavaliers vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Caris LeVert Under 6.5 assists
Georges Niang Under 2.5 threes
Jarrett Allen Under 16.5 points
If LeVert is going to go Under his assists total, we're going to need some of the 3-point shooters on the Cavaliers to miss some shots, and Georges Niang is most likely our guy.
Not only will we need some of the Cavaliers' shooters to miss some shots, but we will also need the Timberwolves defense to take away the lob threat of Jarrett Allen. If Gobert suits up tonight, don't expect Allen to stuff the Cavs center to stuff the stat sheet.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Cavaliers vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
The Timberwolves opened as a 4.5-point favorite over the Cavaliers on Friday and are now trading as a 7-point favorite at FanDuel. Gobert is questionable for the Timberwolves, but this line movement makes me believe that the favorite in Defensive Player of the Year odds will be starting for Minnesota.
The total opened at 210 at DraftKings and is now trading at 206.5. Again, another sign that we should expect to see Gobert, and that's good because we will need him for our best bet of LeVert Under 6.5 assists. Make sure to shop around before hitting the button on a side for the total, as 207 is also available at some books.
Cavaliers vs Timberwolves betting trend to know
The Cavaliers have hit the 4Q game total Under in 51 of their last 79 games (+19.95 Units / 22% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves.
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Cavaliers vs Timberwolves game info
| Location: | Arena, City, State/Province |
| Date: | Friday, March 22, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally North, Bally Ohio |
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