Two of the best teams in the Western Conference go head-to-head at American Airlines Center on Tuesday as the Dallas Mavericks host the Memphis Grizzlies in a NBA Cup matchup.
With both Memphis and Dallas having star scoring guards to lean on, I expect a big man to be the biggest difference in a favourable matchup as part of my Grizzlies vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, December 3.
Grizzlies vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 25.5 points+rebounds (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Ja Morant is the biggest name taking the court for the Memphis Grizzlies, but it’s Jaren Jackson Jr. leading the team in scoring thus far.
The 25-year-old big man is riding the momentum from last year where he proved he can be a reliable scorer on a nightly basis on top of playing at an NBA Defensive Player of the Year level. Jackson leads Memphis in points per game (22.4), field goals per game (8.0), and field goal attempts per game (15.4).
With rookie big Zach Edey still out while dealing with an ankle injury, it doesn’t look like Jackson’s workload will decrease anytime soon. He’s scored 21+ points in five of his last six games — going Over 25.5 points and rebounds in all five of those outings.
On the season, he’s finished with 26+ points and rebounds in 14 of 19 games. That’s 73.7% of his games this season, but these odds only imply a 53.49% probability he’ll do it against the Dallas Mavericks — making this prop a great value play.
While the Mavs are one of the best teams in the Western Conference, they’ve struggled against big men this season. Dallas is allowing the third-most points per game to centers in the NBA (25.34) and the sixth-most threes (1.49), on top of surrendering 14.68 rebounds per game to them.
To make this prop even more enticing, Dallas center Dereck Lively is questionable to play tonight with a knee injury. He missed the Mavericks last game, and without him, Jackson’s matchup becomes that much more favorable.
For as sturdy as Dallas has been defensively, the Mavericks have struggled inside the arc. Jason Kidd’s team is giving up 28 twos per game — ranking them in the back half of the league — and Jackson has been a dynamo around the rim, hitting 61.1% of his twos.
To sweeten the pot, the Mavs haven’t been the most consistent rebounding team. They allow the 12th-most rebounds per game to opponents (44.1) and the third-most offensive rebounds (12.1).
That should help Jackson cruise past 25.5 combined points and rebounds.
Grizzlies vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 25.5 points+rebounds
Ja Morant 1+ three
Luka Doncic Over 7.5 assists
Jackson won’t be alone in putting up points against Dallas. Morant has looked solid in his return to the court, having hit four threes in his three games back since missing eight straight at the beginning of November.
While he’s not a dynamic 3-point shooter, he can be trust to nail at least one shot from behind the arc — a feat he’s accomplished in seven of 10 games this season. He’ll need to too with Luka Doncic on the other side.
The five-time All-Star dished out 13 assists in his first game back after missing five straight. Doncic is averaging eight assists per game and has gone Over 7.5 in eight of 15 games.
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Grizzlies vs Mavericks odds
Grizzlies vs Mavericks live odds
Grizzlies vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Memphis +4 (-110) | Dallas -4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Memphis +150 | Dallas -180
- Over/Under: Over 237.5 (-110) | Under 237.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Grizzlies vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- After Dallas opened as a 2.5-point favorite at most books, the line has continued to shift in the Mavericks direction with books offering them at -4 thanks to Doncic being healthy.
- The Grizzlies have been among the best teams ATS this season at 14-7 while Dallas isn’t far behind at 12-8-1.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 235.5, but has quickly shot all the way up to 242 with Doncic’s play in his return being a factor.
- Memphis has the third-best hit rate betting the Over at 14-7 (66.7%) and the Mavericks are also in the Top 10 at 12-9 (57.1%).
Grizzlies vs Mavericks trend
The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the moneyline in 17 of their last 36 away games (+18.00 Units / 46% ROI). . Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Grizzlies vs Mavericks
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-3-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSNSE-MEM, KFAA |
Grizzlies vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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