Cavaliers vs Warriors Picks and Predictions: The Splash Brothers Return

All the NBA’s eyes will be on Chase Center tonight as Klay Thompson finally returns for the Warriors, after an Achilles injury immediately followed a torn ACL, costing Thompson all of the last two seasons and the first third of this one. Not that Golden State has needed Thompson’s sharp-shooting and defense this year, already sitting tied for the best record in the league.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Cavaliers at the Warriors on January 9, with tip set for 8:30 p.m. ET.

Cavaliers vs Warriors odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Thompson’s return was always baked into this line, anticipated for a few weeks and confirmed by the shooting guard himself on Saturday. The Warriors opened as 9.5-point favorites on Saturday evening, but that dropped to -8.5 by Sunday morning. It bounced between the two numbers for a few hours before settling at -8 early in the afternoon.

The total opened at 219.5 before sunrise on Sunday, before ticking down all the way to 214.5 by late morning. It bounced back to 215 or 216, depending on your book.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Cavaliers vs Warriors predictions

• Prediction: Warriors -8 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 216 (-110)
• Best bet: Warriors -8 (-110)

Predictions made on 01/09/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Cavaliers vs Warriors game info

• Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Sunday, January 9, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-BA, BSOH, SN360

Cavaliers vs Warriors betting preview

Injuries

Cavaliers: Isaac Okoro SF (Out), Ricky Rubio PG (Out), Collin Sexton PG (Out).
Warriors: Juan Toscano-Anderson SF (Questionable), James Wiseman C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Warriors are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight-up loss. That includes two such covers in the last month. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Warriors.

Cavaliers vs Warriors picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

This is not a pick based on Thompson’s return. His simply getting back onto the court is the only accomplishment Thompson really needs to make tonight, though his first made 3-pointer will certainly send the Chase Center crowd into a deserved tizzy.

This is instead a pick based on the enthusiasm the Warriors will certainly play with because of Thompson’s return, and as we have all seen for years, when these Warriors are having fun, they are at their most dangerous.

Steph Curry and Draymond Green both sat out Golden State’s loss at New Orleans, a schedule loss more than anything else. They have had plenty of time to ponder putting on a show tonight.

Furthermore, Cleveland has gone 1-4-1 ATS in its last six, covering only against the free-falling Blazers. The Cavaliers were once one of the feel-good stories in the Eastern Conference, but since point guard Ricky Rubio tore his ACL on Dec. 30, Cleveland has gone 2-3 and its defense has fallen off a cliff, giving up 109.2 points per game. Its defensive rating in that stretch would be the worst in the league across the entire season.

It is never a good idea to be struggling on defense when facing the Warriors, especially not when they are out to put on a show.

Prediction: Warriors -8 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Clearly, this is not in reaction to Thompson’s return, though if anything, his presence would encourage taking the Under. Thompson’s shot might need a few games to knock off some rust, while his defensive acumen should show from the outset.

But again, the Cavaliers’ defense has been struggling without Rubio. They have no perimeter defender to worry Curry, and on the chance Thompson goes on one of his patented hot streaks, then Cleveland will have absolutely no hope of slowing down Golden State.

That said, the Warriors defense has been playing well of late, giving up just 103 points per game in the last eight games, including holding three opponents below 100 points, and two of those — the Mavericks (99 points) and the Nuggets (89) — are better known for their offenses than their defenses.

If this becomes the blowout it very well could, both teams may hit cruise control in the fourth quarter, furthering the chances this falls short of the total.

Prediction: Under 216 (-110)

Best bet

Chase Center may have more buzz tonight than it has in a regular-season game at any other point during the Splash Brothers era. Thompson’s return has been that long-awaited.

No team in the league feeds off its crowd as the Warriors do. Some may be criticizing Curry of late, mainly for going 2-of-19 from three in his last two games, but no player in the league is more capable of rebounding from a bad shooting stretch than Curry, and that crowd could propel him to do so.

And even with those miserable nights, Curry is still shooting 38.8% from deep this season.

If he hits a few early, and if Thompson hits one at all, the Chase Center crowd alone could be too much for the suddenly rudder-less Cavs to overcome.

Pick: Warriors -8 (-110)

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