Celtics vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Tatum's Health Puts Celts on Ice

The Boston Celtics (41-16) are still the NBA's best team and have a date on Valentine's Day with the Milwaukee Bucks (39-17), who are on a 10-game winning streak and currently sit directly behind the Celtics. Given the spotlight, history, and playoff stakes, this game was shaping up to be one of this season's best regular season games on paper.

But Jayson Tatum has gotten more than just butterflies in his stomach and is now listed as doubtful for Tuesday night's contest, while Marcus Smart is already listed as out, with Robert Williams also in danger of missing the game.

Can the shorthanded Celtics still get the job done or will the Milwaukee Bucks extend their winning streak to 11 and bring home the Valentine's Day win?

Continue reading for free NBA picks and predictions for the Celtics vs. Bucks matchup on Tuesday, February 14th.

Celtics vs Bucks best odds

Celtics vs Bucks picks and predictions

There is no hotter team in the NBA right now than the Milwaukee Bucks. In fact, they’ve been unbeatable since both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton returned from injury on January 23rd, putting together a 10-game winning streak during that time.

Giannis has averaged a monstrous 37.3 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 5.5 assists while shooting 59.8% from the field and even 34.3% from three on appreciable volume (3.5 attempts per game). He has led the team in scoring and rebounding in all but one game since his return, which includes two 50-point performances.

Middleton continues to come off the bench as he returns to game speed and finds his rhythm, as he handled the task rather amicably. In 18.8 minutes per game, he’s averaged 15.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game. He’s still looking to find his notorious 3-point stroke, however, managing just a 31.6% clip from deep.

The Bucks' success despite Middleton's shooting struggles should put the rest of the league on high alert. They've managed "just" the 10th-best offensive rating during this streak, but have kept the wins flowing behind stellar defense (third in defensive rating). As a whole, they've played to the second-best net rating in the league during this time.

After racking up wins against the likes of the Nuggets, Heat, Lakers, and Clippers (twice), Milwaukee was likely looking forward to their toughest matchup yet since their co-stars' return: a date on national television with the league-leading Boston Celtics. However, Jayson Tatum is flaking on this date due to illness, listed as doubtful at the time of this writing.

Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart is also listed as out due to an ankle injury and Robert Williams, Malcolm Brogdon, and Grant Williams all carry day-to-day designations. The latter two are expected to play, but the expectation as of now is for Robert Williams to sit out Tuesday's contest.

And while Boston boasts one of the league's deepest rosters, the absences of Tatum, Smart, and Williams in particular are arguably the hardest places the Celtics can be hit on both sides of the ball. Trying to keep pace with a roster as deep as Milwaukee's, playing as well as it’s been for nearly a month now, is a lot to ask of the remaining bodies.

My best bet: Milwaukee Bucks -8.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

Celtics vs Bucks spread analysis

The Bucks opened as -9.5 favorites and the spread ranges anywhere between -8.5 to -9.5 across the market.

Boston is 31-26 against the spread this season, tied for the eighth-best cover rate in the league at 54.4%. The Celts have been road underdogs just three times this season, and have gone 2-1 against the spread in those games. However, Tatum played in all three of those prior instances.

The Celtics have covered in four straight and in five of their last six but had failed to cover in the six games prior to that. They covered in convincing fashion in these two teams' prior matchup this year, winning 139-118 as -5.5 favorites.

The Bucks are 31-22-3 ATS, good for the second-best cover rate in the league at 58.5%. As home favorites, they’ve been even better, going 18-10 and covering in 64.3% of games. 

The Bucks have covered in four straight and have gone 7-3 ATS since Giannis and Middleton have returned. 

Celtics vs Bucks Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 226 and much like the spread, the market is showing a wide range on the total as of the time of this writing. BetMGM is showing a 224.5 while other books are at 225.5.

Although the Celtics have gone 28-27-2 to the Under this season, they are the league's best Under team on the road at 18-8-1 (69.2%).

They have gone Over the total in back-to-back games, and have gone 5-3 to the Over in their last eight. Prior to that, they had gone Under in four straight and in six of their last seven.

Milwaukee has also slightly shaded towards the Under this year at 29-27. Despite those results, it has heavily favored the Over in home games this year, playing to a 18-10 record that way — the third-best Overs record this year in that split.

The Bucks have gone Under in three straight and in five of their last six. Tonight's total would mark the second-lowest total since Giannis' return, and they blew past the lowest total during this stretch by 14 points (123-115 against Miami on a total of 224).

Celtics vs Bucks betting trend to know

Milwaukee has gone 18-10 against the spread as home favorites this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Bucks.

Celtics vs Bucks game info

Celtics vs Bucks key injuries

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