Celtics vs Cavaliers Picks and Predictions: Drained Celts Fall to Cavs

The Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers are both hoping to keep the winning momentum going this weekend as they clash on Saturday night. 

Both teams picked up victories Friday night, with the surprising Cavs improving to 8-5 on the season, and the Celts leveling to .500 at 6-6. 

Let's jump into our Celtics vs Cavaliers picks for Saturday, November 13 to find out who has the NBA betting edge. 

Celtics vs Cavaliers odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Boston opened as a -3.0 favorite and has ping-ponged between that number and -2.5 depending on your book. The total opened at 202.5 and has been bet up to 203.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Celtics vs Cavaliers predictions

• Cleveland +3.0 (-110)
• Under 203.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Allen Over 11.5 rebounds (+105)

Predictions made on 11/13/2021 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Celtics vs Cavaliers game info

• Location: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Saturday, November 13, 2021
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBATV, BSOH, NBCS-BOS

Celtics vs Cavaliers betting preview

Injuries

Celtics: Jaylen Brown G/F (Out).
Cavaliers: Collin Sexton PG (Out), Lauri Markkanen PF (Out), Kevin Love PF (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as an underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Cavaliers.

Celtics vs Cavaliers picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Fatigue is sure to play a factor in this game, with both teams playing last night. But there's a stark contrast.

See, Boston escaped with a hard-fought OT win against Milwaukee, needing 38 points from Dennis Schroder in a game where four of its starters logged forty-plus minutes. Boston barely won despite Milwaukee being without both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, with Jrue Holiday shooting 5 for 3,000 from the field. Then, the Celts had to get on a plane and go to Cleveland. 

Cleveland, meanwhile, pistol-whipped Detroit, the East's worst team, by 20 points in a game that was mostly out of reach heading into the fourth quarter. Then, the Cavs got to return home and relax, smack-dab in the middle of a four-game homestand. 

Both teams are also weathering high-profile injuries, with Jaylen Brown out for Boston and both Collin Sexton and Lauri Markkanen sidelined for the Cavs. Treat Brown's net loss as the far greater deficit. Not only is he a game-changing All-Star on both ends of the floor, the Cavs are well-equipped to handle their particular absences. Ricky Rubio's one of the NBA's best backup point guards and is cooking people with Sexton out, and the two-big combo of Jarrett Allen and rookie Evan Mobley has been simply stellar to hold down Cleveland's front line.  

The Cavs match up well with the Celts, who also rock the rare double-big lineup with Al Horford and Robert Williams III. With a suffocating perimeter defense funneling attackers into two shot-blocking bigs, Boston's held down the league's best defensive rating over its past five games, the bulk of which have been without Brown. But the Cavs are no slouchers either, with the league's sixth-best defense over the whole season thus far.

They'll make life tough for a Celtics squad without one of its best scorers, especially having played an OT game in a different city last night. Boston will have to work for its buckets, and unless Jayson Tatum or, far less likely, Schroder (again) erupts, cracking Cleveland may be too much to ask. 

None of the Cavs are household names, but they're a capable two-way team that's probably underrated on offense. Four of their starters are great passers, so expect them to keep the Celts on their toes on D and find above-average looks without Sexton to create his own offense. Darius Garland's the better of their two lead guards, anyway. 

The Cavs are at home and catching points in a game where they're the more underrated of the two teams, and definitely the fresher one. They're also an NBA-best 10-3 ATS this season, making it tough not to side with them.

Prediction: Cleveland +3.0 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

There's a lot to factor into this game's total, which sits at a diminutive 203.5. 

The first, obviously, is that both these teams are without their leading or 1b scorer with Brown and Sexton in suits, handicapping each side's ability to get buckets on-demand. 

Both of these teams are defense-first squads that rank in the NBA's basement in pace (Boston 23rd, Cleveland 26th), while the Cavs are 4-9 O/U on the season as one of the NBA's better Under marks. 

This total seems stupid low, almost as if it were a trap. But we're ready to step into it. The Celtics have averaged just 192.5 total ppg in regulation across their last five, falling well short of this total against slow-paced defense-first teams like the Raptors and Heat. Likewise, the Cavs have fallen short of this total in three of their last four. 

There's plenty to suggest these teams will come nowhere near their combined 214 ppg. From injuries, to back-to-back fatigue, and the slow-paced defensive grind both sides can enable, we're biting the bullet and backing the Under.

Prediction: Under 203.5 (-110) 

Best bet

Jarrett Allen's been having himself a run of late. The reigning Eastern Conference Player of the Week has been putting up absolutely gaudy numbers in November.

If you exclude last night's outlier blowout against Detroit in which Allen played limited minutes – and we feel compelled to because the Pistons are a doormat that no team is bringing their A-game for – Allen's averaging 19 points and 15 rebounds per game this month, with his minutes consistently in the mid-to-high 30s. 

Allen's rebounding prop can be had at 11.5 tonight, with the Over at +105. The number seems curiously low, but it's bogged down by Allen's October stats, where he grabbed double-digit boards in only two of seven games while Cleveland figured out its crowded frontcourt rotation. 

With Lauri Markkanen injured and the Allen-Evan Mobley tag team producing great results (the Cavs have won five of their last six), Allen's minutes are no longer in question. In games where he's played 32+ minutes, he's 6-1 against this total and averaging 15 rebounds. 

Boston owns one of the NBA's weaker rebounding rates (23rd overall), which is all the more reason to bank on the boards for Allen tonight.

Pick: Jarrett Allen Over 11.5 rebounds (+105)

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